Recon to check 94L this afternoon TWO 11:30

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cycloneye
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Recon to check 94L this afternoon TWO 11:30

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:41 am

Code: Select all

221501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JEANNE...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ABOUT 530 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...ON HURRICANE KARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1490 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WESTERNMOST AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 1165 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES...ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS...INDICATE THE 
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE ORGANIZING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...BUT
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 790 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...OR ALSO ABOUT 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF TROPICAL STORM LISA...IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

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#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:41 am

This afternoon at 2 PM recon will investigate 94L.
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#3 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:42 am

Oh boy.... two more TD's soon? RUN AWAY!! RUN AWAY!! :eek: :eek:
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#4 Postby Guest » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:44 am

That means we probally got a TD at least. It is the end of Sept most folks are tired of this. I dont think they are sending an airplane out for alittle science project. This will be Ivan or Mathew?
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:46 am

Ivans name will not be used if 94L develops.It will be or Matthew or Nicole depending which one 93 or 94 forms into a storm first.
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#6 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:46 am

Matthew... or Nicole if the Invest east of Lisa develops first.
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#7 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:51 am

Yay! I love these little spin up storms. Hopefully it gives Texas nothing but a little taste of tropical weather, and nothing too intense. I'm rooting for the greek alphabet this year. =D
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#8 Postby Guest » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:52 am

Cant wait to see the models.
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#9 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:53 am

Geez... :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#10 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:55 am

This doesn't surprise me we've had very gusty winds in West Central Florida since late yesterday afternoon. You can always tell when a Tropical system is brewing offshore.
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#11 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:21 am

This reminds me way too much of Alicia in 1983!! I am not predicting anything like that at this point, but the scenario is so similar it is scary!!!!
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#12 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:22 am

vbhoutex wrote:This reminds me way too much of Alicia in 1983!! I am not predicting anything like that at this point, but the scenario is so similar it is scary!!!!


What was Alicia?
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#13 Postby Roxy » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:23 am

vbhoutex wrote:This reminds me way too much of Alicia in 1983!! I am not predicting anything like that at this point, but the scenario is so similar it is scary!!!!


That's what Dr. Neil said last night too.

I was hoping for a little Tropical Storm or something and that's it. Figures the weekend we might get one, is the weekend my sister is getting married.

There's Karma for ya.
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#14 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:25 am

yoda wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:This reminds me way too much of Alicia in 1983!! I am not predicting anything like that at this point, but the scenario is so similar it is scary!!!!


What was Alicia?


A Category 2 hurricane that hit just west of Houston(100 mphish winds).
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#15 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:26 am

Brent wrote:
yoda wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:This reminds me way too much of Alicia in 1983!! I am not predicting anything like that at this point, but the scenario is so similar it is scary!!!!


What was Alicia?


A Category 2 hurricane that hit just west of Houston(100 mphish winds).


Ah ok. Thanks.
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#16 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:27 am

What was Alicia?

Alicia was the last true major storm to affect the Houston/Galveston area in the last 20yrs...Gave a bit of insight into what could happen if this area ever gets the "big" one...
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#17 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:29 am

vbhoutex wrote:This reminds me way too much of Alicia in 1983!! I am not predicting anything like that at this point, but the scenario is so similar it is scary!!!!


Well I don't know if Alicia encountered the kind of shear that this system is getting right now. I'm also told that Alicia developed a little further east in the Gulf.

That being said ... if this system slows to a crawl as it approaches TX, like the recent ETA model runs suggest ... well .... :eek:
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#18 Postby golter » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:30 am

The shear is still pretty strong.. it will only have a short time to develop if it does.
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#19 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:30 am

Brent wrote:
yoda wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:This reminds me way too much of Alicia in 1983!! I am not predicting anything like that at this point, but the scenario is so similar it is scary!!!!


What was Alicia?


A Category 2 hurricane that hit just west of Houston(100 mphish winds).


Ahhh...actually a Cat 3 with 115! :-) She was my first hurricane.
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#20 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:30 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:What was Alicia?

Alicia was the last true major storm to affect the Houston/Galveston area in the last 20yrs...Gave a bit of insight into what could happen if this area ever gets the "big" one...


Man is that an understatement!!! I don't even want to think what would happen here if we got a CAT4 or CAT5 coming in on the same type of path Alicia was on once she approached landfall!!!!

take a look at this loop!! Sure looks lilke we could easily have a TD later today.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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