12Z model trends: 2 further West (EC/GEM), 2 E (UK/NGP)

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LarryWx
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12Z model trends: 2 further West (EC/GEM), 2 E (UK/NGP)

#1 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:30 pm

1) ECMWF:

The just released 12Z 9/21 ECMWF run gets Jeanne to as far west as 79.5W, which is 4.5 degrees further west than the 75W of the 0Z run. Here is a comparison of the days 3-7 positions for these two EC runs:

12Z 9/24: 0Z run had it at 26N, 70W while 12Z run has it at
26N, 72W

12Z 9/25: 0Z run had it at 28N, 72W while 12Z run has it at 27N, 76W with a stronger 500 mb ridge north of it

12Z 9/26: 0Z run had it at 30N, 75W while 12Z run has it at 29.5N, 79W w/582 dm line S NJ vs. NC/VA border on 0Z run

12Z 9/27: 0Z run had it at 34N, 72W while 12Z run has it at 32N, 79.5W

12Z 9/28: 0Z run had it at 36N, 70W while 12Z run has it at 35N, 77.5W

2) GEM:

The 12Z 9/21 GEM run gets Jeanne to as far west as 80W, which is 2 degrees further west than the 78W of the 0Z run.

0Z 9/26: 0Z run had it at 28.5N, 78W (furthest west it ever gets) vs. 12Z's 29.5N, 80W; 12Z has weaker surface low (992 mb vs. 0Z's 983 mb) and a stronger 500 mb ridge with the 582 dm line up to NYC vs. only up to NC/VA border on the 0Z run

3) UKMET:

Going against the trend of these two models, the 12Z UKMET only gets it as far west as 74W (31N, 74W as of 12Z 9/26) vs. 78W (30N, 78W as of 0Z 9/26) on the 0Z run. So, the latest UKMET is 4 degrees further east than its prior run.

4) NOGAPS:

The 12Z NOGAPS, like the UKMET, is further east than its OZ run (by 1.5 degrees). The 12Z run has it at 29.5N, 76W as of 12Z on 9/26 vs. the 30.5N, 77.5W from the 0Z run.

Larry
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#2 Postby mascpa » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:34 pm

Well that settles it then. The models have no idea, or, more accurately, such divergent scenarios as to future track (and intensity) as to not be much use at this time.
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#3 Postby yoda » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:35 pm

Nope, so use the NHC track for now.
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:57 am

The point is the general consensus TREND ... WEST ...

and more and more pointing to a SE threat by about MON next week ...
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#5 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 10:59 am

Stormsfury wrote:The point is the general consensus TREND ... WEST ...

and more and more pointing to a SE threat by about MON next week ...


Yep, and it appears that NC and SC are most under the gun right now...
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#6 Postby TampaFl » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:01 am

Plus the models all season have been underestimating the strength of the high pressure systems. Jeanne could move even further west if in fact this is true. Everyone from Florida to the Carolina's needs tokeep a close eye on this. :eek:
Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)
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#7 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:01 am

yoda wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:The point is the general consensus TREND ... WEST ...

and more and more pointing to a SE threat by about MON next week ...


Yep, and it appears that NC and SC are most under the gun right now...


Well Nogaps has it hitting Central FLorida and the others appear to only be about 120 miles offshore. Well within the margin of error so Central and North FLoridian folks should watch closely.
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#8 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:02 am

caneman wrote:
yoda wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:The point is the general consensus TREND ... WEST ...

and more and more pointing to a SE threat by about MON next week ...


Yep, and it appears that NC and SC are most under the gun right now...


Well Nogaps has it hitting Central FLorida and the others appear to only be about 120 miles offshore. Well within the margin of error so Central and North FLoridian folks should watch closely.


Yes, but NHC said to ignore the NOGAPS and throw it out.
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:05 am

Well, I really don't see THAT much of a difference in the strength of the ridge itself, BUT ... I can attest sometimes to the progressive nature bias of the NOGAPS, one, and two, it generally almost has a leftmost bias as well ...

SF
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#10 Postby cswitwer » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:09 am

TampaFl wrote:Plus the models all season have been underestimating the strength of the high pressure systems. Jeanne could move even further west if in fact this is true. Everyone from Florida to the Carolina's needs tokeep a close eye on this. :eek:
Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)


Don't forget, most of the landfalls this year have been left of the official tracks. Scary.
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#11 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:10 am

Huh.

This is what NHC says... SF can you elaborate some?

WITH ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL BEING THE WESTERNMOST
OUTLIER IN TAKING JEANNE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS
SCENARIO IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME DUE TO ITS MUCH
SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE.
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#12 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:15 am

I agree! Even a scrape by an offshore hurricane will bring down the trees and power again. The ground here is like walking on a wet sponge! We will be watching closely!

Reconed in St Auggie! (#4 this year with only one hit! )
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