12Z's look much better for FL

DESTRUCTION5 · #1 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 2:51 pm

Almost all say a Near miss for NC and out to Sea...

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 2:53 pm

Wha? Near all say a near miss? That is incorrect.

Lets try the ECMWF, GGEM, NOGAPS all hit NC....

DESTRUCTION5 · #3 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 2:55 pm

yoda wrote:Wha? Near all say a near miss? That is incorrect.

Lets try the ECMWF, GGEM, NOGAPS all hit NC....

Compromising between them and the UK and GFDL

#4 Postby **mascpa** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 2:56 pm

No worry mates. I can almost guarantee that they'll change again, probably more than once. But I sense that this scenario is probably pretty close to how it will eventually play out.

gkrangers · #5 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 2:57 pm

When the track changes from east to west between advisories, I wouldn't call these models set in stone..

yoda · #6 Postby **yoda** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 2:59 pm

gkrangers wrote:When the track changes from east to west between advisories, I wouldn't call these models set in stone..

Understood. However, if you read the 11 AM advisory, you can see the forecaster is waiting to see what the 12z models had before he shifted the track west. They have shifted west, so expect a shift west and north in the forecast track

#7 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 3:56 pm

See...this is one of the things that I completely disagree with. This really doesn't mean anything other than trouble for the entire SE coast.

For example...look at the Euro...NOGAPS models. All take Jeanne very close to the FL coast then send it north in a pattern not unlike Ivan had to deal with...whereas the models were looping Jeanne further east yesterday.

If any of these models come close to verifying...or if Jeanne gets even one degree south of expected...it will be a close call for somebody in FL and they will have to prepare for a hurricane. Because this turn is taking place on day 4 and 5 it is still very uncertain.

Just because the models show a landfall in a certain place means very little. The trend is west in almost all of the guidance (save UKMET). That should have the entire southeast concerned.

MW

#8 Postby **Deenac813** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 3:58 pm

Oh Mike I wish you would not have said that :wink:

I have been trying to convince myself I have nothing to worry about

yoda · #9 Postby **yoda** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:05 pm

MWatkins wrote:See...this is one of the things that I completely disagree with. This really doesn't mean anything other than trouble for the entire SE coast.

For example...look at the Euro...NOGAPS models. All take Jeanne very close to the FL coast then send it north in a pattern not unlike Ivan had to deal with...whereas the models were looping Jeanne further east yesterday.

If any of these models come close to verifying...or if Jeanne gets even one degree south of expected...it will be a close call for somebody in FL and they will have to prepare for a hurricane. Because this turn is taking place on day 4 and 5 it is still very uncertain.

Just because the models show a landfall in a certain place means very little. The trend is west in almost all of the guidance (save UKMET). That should have the entire southeast concerned.

MW

Along with MA!!! (Delmarva area)

ameriwx2003 · #10 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:30 pm

MW.. agreed and great points.. THE 12z EURO continues coming further back west in the 12 z run compared tot he 0Z run:):)

#11 Postby **orion** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 4:43 pm

MWatkins wrote:
Just because the models show a landfall in a certain place means very little. The trend is west in almost all of the guidance (save UKMET). That should have the entire southeast concerned.

MW

Well said Mike, we need to look at what the trend is and not focus on a particular area, especially this far out... Will be interesting to see what the next model runs show us.

-jeff

Josephine96 · #12 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 21, 2004 5:01 pm

Models always shift.. Wait and see if a trend develops

rjgator1 · #13 Postby **rjgator1** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:13 am

Well said Mike. Are these not the same models that 24-48 hours ago had about a 360 degree variance between all of them. We need to watch the trend and have some consecutive runs prior to anyone being safe or inn harms way 5 days out.

#14 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:19 am

If I remember correctly these were the "spaghetti" models a few days ago!!! You tend to lose some confidence when the models begin to look like food. Either that or the season has finally taken the last shred of sanity left!!!

As always, I say let's wait and see as Jeanne makes up its mind-but keep watching.

Lynn

#15 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:24 am

Well put all! I agree also on watching the trend. Hey if forcasts were accurate, what fun would that be!

Year 2037 NHC Forcast for J Smith 123 main st.

Winds will peak at your house at 112 sustained with a gust at 2:43 pm of 125. You will need 3/4 plywood and your evacuation slot is 12:14 Tuesday. Thanks and have a nice day!

CourierPR · #16 Postby **CourierPR** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:25 am

Would the development in the Gulf of Mexico pump the ridge to the east over Jeanne and keep her on a more westerly track?

yoda · #17 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:25 am

sponger wrote:Well put all! I agree also on watching the trend. Hey if forcasts were accurate, what fun would that be!

Year 2037 NHC Forcast for J Smith 123 main st.

Winds will peak at your house at 112 sustained with a gust at 2:43 pm of 125. You will need 3/4 plywood and your evacuation slot is 12:14 Tuesday. Thanks and have a nice day!

#18 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:38 am

I thought you would like that one Yoda!

yoda · #19 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:38 am

sponger wrote:I thought you would like that one Yoda!

Lol, I did.

12Z's look much better for FL

12Z's look much better for FL

Who is online