UKMET - Ivan/Matthew to TX and back out to GOM?

[GalvestonDuck]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

Am I seeing this right? UKMET shows it going to SE TX, then skirting down the coast a bit towards CC, and then back out into the central GOM near the YP.

I know Ivan tried to avoid land on a number of occasions but this is ridiculous!

[TampaFl]

You are right galveston Duck! I cannot belive what I am seeing.

RObert

[Deenac813]

It also shows Jeanne pretty close to FL before going to the Carolinas

[GalvestonDuck]

Just remember, it's only one model. I honestly didn't check the animations of all the others in regards to Jeanne, Karl, or Lisa. I was focusing on the GOM and the UKMET is the only one that showed this activity. It's always a possibility, but not necessarily absolute.

And I'm not met, so what do I know?

[BayouVenteux]

Yes Duck, as a matter of fact Bastardi voiced concerns in his tropical update this morning about the portential for a stall and crawl situation possibly developing just off the northeast Texas gulf coast. Everyone from New Orleans to Austin certainly could all use the rain from this system, but a bout of prolonged high surf or worse obviously isn't good for anyone.

[Hyperstorm]

Not only that, you can see Lisa swallowing up the disturbance to its east and moving WNW north of the islands with a ridge of high pressure to its north. Another much stronger ridge will be dropping southward from Canada into the United States.

Unfortunately, this pattern will favor another landfalling tropical cyclone in the United States late next week into the weekend...

[yoda]

Not only that, you can see Lisa swallowing up the disturbance to its east and moving WNW north of the islands with a strong ridge of high pressure to its north. This pattern will favor another landfalling tropical cyclone in the United States late next week into the weekend...

Huh? NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS
FOR LISA. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION PREDICTED FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS BY THE GFDL IS NOW BEGINNING...AND SO CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT HAS
BEEN PLACED ON THIS MODEL. LISA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE. IF LISA SURVIVES...IN
THIS SCENARIO IT WOULD THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE. SUCH A SCENARIO BECOMES MORE LIKELY IF LISA'S
CIRCULATION REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED...WHILE A STRONGER CYCLONE WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SIMPLER WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.

That is what NHC says...

[vbhoutex]

Unfortunately, it is a real possibility that this will happen with whatever we get here in the next few days. Presuming we have some sort of tropical system near us on Friday on the upper TX coast, we will also have an imcoming front that would tend to diflect the system SW after it gets close to us since we will be somewhat backsided by the incoming from the North and West. This could push it South and West in a skirt the coast situation depending on the strength of the incoming front and the high behind it. If this happens and it turns into a stall situation in the BOC or SW GOM, I don't even want to think of the possible scenarios!!!

[Hyperstorm]

Not only that, you can see Lisa swallowing up the disturbance to its east and moving WNW north of the islands with a strong ridge of high pressure to its north. This pattern will favor another landfalling tropical cyclone in the United States late next week into the weekend...

Huh? NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS
FOR LISA. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION PREDICTED FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS BY THE GFDL IS NOW BEGINNING...AND SO CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT HAS
BEEN PLACED ON THIS MODEL. LISA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE. IF LISA SURVIVES...IN
THIS SCENARIO IT WOULD THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE. SUCH A SCENARIO BECOMES MORE LIKELY IF LISA'S
CIRCULATION REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED...WHILE A STRONGER CYCLONE WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SIMPLER WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.

That is what NHC says...

I actually changed my wording before you posted this information. The ridge is NOT a strong one, BUT it is a mid-level ridge that should keep it from recurving away. If the much stronger ridge that YOU can see coming down from Canada at the end of the loop parks itself off the East Coast of the United States, you SHOULD see Lisa turn back toward a more westward track.

All of this is IF this SPECIFIC scenario from the UKMET verifies...

[sunny]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cgi?time=2004092200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Am I seeing this right? UKMET shows it going to SE TX, then skirting down the coast a bit towards CC, and then back out into the central GOM near the YP.

I know Ivan tried to avoid land on a number of occasions but this is ridiculous!

OMG - this thing just will NOT go away!

[yoda]

Not only that, you can see Lisa swallowing up the disturbance to its east and moving WNW north of the islands with a strong ridge of high pressure to its north. This pattern will favor another landfalling tropical cyclone in the United States late next week into the weekend...

Huh? NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS
FOR LISA. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION PREDICTED FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS BY THE GFDL IS NOW BEGINNING...AND SO CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT HAS
BEEN PLACED ON THIS MODEL. LISA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE. IF LISA SURVIVES...IN
THIS SCENARIO IT WOULD THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE. SUCH A SCENARIO BECOMES MORE LIKELY IF LISA'S
CIRCULATION REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED...WHILE A STRONGER CYCLONE WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SIMPLER WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.

That is what NHC says...

I actually changed my wording before you posted this information. The ridge is NOT a strong one, BUT it is a mid-level ridge that should keep it from recurving away. If the much stronger ridge that YOU can see coming down from Canada at the end of the loop parks itself off the East Coast of the United States, you SHOULD see Lisa turn back toward a more westward track.

All of this is IF this SPECIFIC scenario from the UKMET verifies...

Ah ok. Thanks for clearing that up.

[fci]

Regarding Lisa it looks like it moves north of the lslands and then is a fish.

[vbhoutex]

Regarding Lisa it looks like it moves north of the lslands and then is a fish.

If she even survives. And what does Lisa have to do with the title of this thread?

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately, it is a real possibility that this will happen with whatever we get here in the next few days. Presuming we have some sort of tropical system near us on Friday on the upper TX coast, we will also have an imcoming front that would tend to diflect the system SW after it gets close to us since we will be somewhat backsided by the incoming from the North and West. This could push it South and West in a skirt the coast situation depending on the strength of the incoming front and the high behind it. If this happens and it turns into a stall situation in the BOC or SW GOM, I don't even want to think of the possible scenarios!!!

I've talked to several forecasters this morning who think the front may not make it past central Texas. As the tropical cyclone nears the Texas coast, NE winds would predominate and make frontal progression somewhat sluggish.

We really need to keep our eyes peeled on this system.

[stormie_skies]

Oh my lord.... so this little stinker could soak us over the weekend, back up and then take another swing? ROFL! Well, the way this season has gone so far, I guess it figures ... everyone else has gotten hit at least twice...