Hold up... 12z NOGAPS and CMC would like Jeanne to visit FL

[yoda]

12z NOGAPS -- MELBOURNE

12z CMC -- DAYTONA

12z GFS -- still coming in...

[Deenac813]

No way! I refuse to think about it.

[Bane]

Apparently, they are slower to build in the high.

[yoda]

Apparently, they are slower to build in the high.

Yup.


12z GFS = NC (somewhere along the coast.. but Outer Banks for sure)

[Lindaloo]

Oh gosh, I certainly hope not!!

[Bane]

A hit near Wilmington would be bad as the ground is still saturated and there is still plenty of debris laying around from Charley.

[Steve H.]

But the GFS is the furthest west that's its been with Jeanne, approaching the central Florida coast, then lifting north. So again it gives validity to the other models with a further west shift. This could be a headache from Florida all the way up the coast!

[yoda]

A redux of what's its name? The same one that did the same by scaring everyone from FLA to NC?

[SouthFLTropics]

I would like to believe the official forecast track at this time but history has told me that it will change over the next five days. We took the direct hit from Frances and she was all over the place at 5 days out from Georgia to West Palm back to Jacksonville and then us. I am concernerned about the ridge and the models ability to accurately forecast its strength this year. It appears on water vapor that it is building in very quickly. Furthermore, after two days of solid rain down here today is a beautiful day with a strong easterly flow. I guess the saga continues...One thing is for sure...we will know alot more by this time next week! LOL

SouthFLTropics

[yoda]

Yup... will be watching this very closely...

[caneman]

I would like to believe the official forecast track at this time but history has told me that it will change over the next five days. We took the direct hit from Frances and she was all over the place at 5 days out from Georgia to West Palm back to Jacksonville and then us. I am concernerned about the ridge and the models ability to accurately forecast its strength this year. It appears on water vapor that it is building in very quickly. Furthermore, after two days of solid rain down here today is a beautiful day with a strong easterly flow. I guess the saga continues...One thing is for sure...we will know alot more by this time next week! LOL

SouthFLTropics

Don't think you'll be waiting til next week. The way I'm reading it is 72 hours out and knocking on the door of Central FLorida.

[cape_escape]

I would like to believe the official forecast track at this time but history has told me that it will change over the next five days. We took the direct hit from Frances and she was all over the place at 5 days out from Georgia to West Palm back to Jacksonville and then us. I am concernerned about the ridge and the models ability to accurately forecast its strength this year. It appears on water vapor that it is building in very quickly. Furthermore, after two days of solid rain down here today is a beautiful day with a strong easterly flow. I guess the saga continues...One thing is for sure...we will know alot more by this time next week! LOL

SouthFLTropics

Don't think you'll be waiting til next week. The way I'm reading it is 72 hours out and knocking on the door of Central FLorida.

HIH?????

[caneman]

I would like to believe the official forecast track at this time but history has told me that it will change over the next five days. We took the direct hit from Frances and she was all over the place at 5 days out from Georgia to West Palm back to Jacksonville and then us. I am concernerned about the ridge and the models ability to accurately forecast its strength this year. It appears on water vapor that it is building in very quickly. Furthermore, after two days of solid rain down here today is a beautiful day with a strong easterly flow. I guess the saga continues...One thing is for sure...we will know alot more by this time next week! LOL

SouthFLTropics

Don't think you'll be waiting til next week. The way I'm reading it is 72 hours out and knocking on the door of Central FLorida.

HIH?????

HIH?

[cape_escape]

I would like to believe the official forecast track at this time but history has told me that it will change over the next five days. We took the direct hit from Frances and she was all over the place at 5 days out from Georgia to West Palm back to Jacksonville and then us. I am concernerned about the ridge and the models ability to accurately forecast its strength this year. It appears on water vapor that it is building in very quickly. Furthermore, after two days of solid rain down here today is a beautiful day with a strong easterly flow. I guess the saga continues...One thing is for sure...we will know alot more by this time next week! LOL

SouthFLTropics

Don't think you'll be waiting til next week. The way I'm reading it is 72 hours out and knocking on the door of Central FLorida.

HIH?????

HIH?

that was a rushed huh??? Yikes??? uh-oh!!!!

[Amanzi]

NO NO NO!!!! I refuse to accept that secario for 1 minute

Im just going to watch and see if all the models continue to trend further west in future runs. Florida does not want this storm, no one on land does for that matter. I honestly wish she would just go to hell in a handbasket!

[huricanwatcher]

i just gonna watch and wait and not start throwing a fit until around a day out or so..... good i hate this stress

[Foladar]

It'd be coming in just in time for the weekend if it does hit Central FLA..

[MWatkins]

Apparently, they are slower to build in the high.

Yup.


12z GFS = NC (somewhere along the coast.. but Outer Banks for sure)

Yes...but with a sharp turn in front of Central Florida.

Run after run is further west than the last. The GFS is just off the coast of FL and was the eastern-most model at 00Z. If UKMET and GFDL shift westward...and I think they will...there will be some significant leftward adjustments to the forecast track at 5PM.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

Apparently, they are slower to build in the high.

Yup.


12z GFS = NC (somewhere along the coast.. but Outer Banks for sure)

Yes...but with a sharp turn in front of Central Florida.

Run after run is further west than the last. The GFS is just off the coast of FL and was the eastern-most model at 00Z. If UKMET and GFDL shift westward...and I think they will...there will be some significant leftward adjustments to the forecast track at 5PM.

MW

OMG MW...What the?!!!

[caneman]

Apparently, they are slower to build in the high.

Yup.


12z GFS = NC (somewhere along the coast.. but Outer Banks for sure)

Yes...but with a sharp turn in front of Central Florida.

Run after run is further west than the last. The GFS is just off the coast of FL and was the eastern-most model at 00Z. If UKMET and GFDL shift westward...and I think they will...there will be some significant leftward adjustments to the forecast track at 5PM.

MW

Mike, assuming these trends verify, aren't we looking at as early as Saturday to Sunday time frame? That isn't too far out.