Model Consensus Shifting West Bigtime

[MWatkins]

The overall model consensus is shifting westward bigtime. Here is a comparison of the 18Z consensus from today, as compared to the CONUS guidance from the past 3 runs for the same verify time:

Verify Time: 2PM EDT Saturday

18Z Today (+72): 27.2N 78.1W
06Z Today (+84): 27.3N 76.5W
18Z Tues (+096): 28.7N 72.4W
06Z Tues (+120): 28.1N 72.6W

So, for the last 4 comparable runs (Can't use the 12Z or 0Z guidance because the verify points don't show in the model data) we've seen a degree shift to the south and a 5.5 degree shift to the west.

All of this has to do with the handling of the ridge over the US east coast and the associated ridge/trough pattern. The 12Z euro...just out...shows a very similar story to the model consensus...with a westward track through 72 hours then a turn to the NW at 96 and a N turn at 120.

This is going to be a very close call for the FL east coast and for everyone along the SE US coast...because if it does not hit FL it's going to the Carolinas.

Very interesting couple of days ahead. Still looks like Jeanne is moving SW and getting better organized.

MW

[mascpa]

How far south do you think Jeanne can go? 26N? Could she go as low as 25N, or even lower?

[Brent]

If I was on the Florida East Coast, I'd be biting my nails right now.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif

CLOSE, CLOSE, CLOSE.

[SouthFLTropics]

Mike, I respect your posts and your opinion. At this time though I downright just don't like it! We've had enough in Florida! Do you see a Frances scenario setting up possibly??? This is what I feel like right now --->

SouthFLTropics

[Nimbus]

The ULL over the rockies looks like it hit a brick wall. Ivans remnants in the gulf are still moving west. I think you are right the models are in catch up mode.

[weatherwoman]

why does everyone keep talking about florida north carolina is the place being talked about by the models and thc and twc time to get off of florida sounds like you guys want it to hit you again

[loon]

awwww, sounds like you are the one that wants a hit

[SouthFLTropics]

with all due respect, you are from North Carolina, it sounds like you want it to hit you! I definitely don't want it...without power for 9 days stinks...We are just concerned about the continued shift in the models and the strength of the ridge.

[caneman]

why does everyone keep talking about florida north carolina is the place being talked about by the models and thc and twc time to get off of florida sounds like you guys want it to hit you again

Don't you know that they are hours behind the info we get here? Watch the trend. We'll send you the leftovers when she is done with us. J/K

[Brent]

why does everyone keep talking about florida north carolina is the place being talked about by the models and thc and twc time to get off of florida sounds like you guys want it to hit you again

I'm sure Floridians will give you Jeanne in a heartbeat.

[Rainband]

why does everyone keep talking about florida north carolina is the place being talked about by the models and thc and twc time to get off of florida sounds like you guys want it to hit you again

I highly doubt Florida wants another hit I think the reason the focus has been on florida is because of the year we have had. The models have been all over the place on this storm and the continued west shift of the models has some eyebrows raised.With all do respect please don't assume the fear of a storm is wishing for one. Hopefully this storm is a fish and affects no one IMHO, no one needs anymore disaster.

[Agua]

Poor FL. You guys have had enough. I don't wish this thing on anyone, but let's hope the NHC 11:00 a.m. 5-day is spot on for once this season.

[SouthFLTropics]

Thank you rainband...excellent analysis

[Rainband]

Thank you rainband...excellent analysis

Just the truth but YW

[MortisFL]

Chad posted just how "correct" these models have been in handling Jeanne...FL has to keep an eye on it.

[Steve]

>>why does everyone keep talking about florida north carolina is the place being talked about by the models and thc and twc time to get off of florida sounds like you guys want it to hit you again

An obvious 'it's my storm' post as you are indeed in North Carolina.

Steve

[NativeFloridaGirl]

I can't even imagine another tropical system here. We had over 10 inches of rain yesterday (from Ivans ghost) after the aproximately 7 from Frances just a couple weeks ago. It took me 13 days to get power from that nightmare. Just the IDEA gives me serious anxiety!

~Beth~

[Rainband]

I can't even imagine another tropical system here. We had over 10 inches of rain yesterday (from Ivans ghost) after the aproximately 7 from Frances just a couple weeks ago. It took me 13 days to get power from that nightmare. Just the IDEA gives me serious anxiety!

~Beth~

Just wait and watch, Hopefully it will just be a close call. Whatever happens just be ready as always during this time of year.

[MWatkins]

Anyone reading my post above...please note that I am not expecting one place over another...yet. All I am noting is that the models bring Jeanne further westward with each run and the threat for the SE is increasing. If will be a close call, and right now if I were in NC or FL or SC I would be equally worried in each place.

MW

[yoda]

Don't forget GA!