Melbourne FL NWS AFD

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS FLORIDA...

SAT-NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS JEANNE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO
THE FL EAST COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT.


nuff said

[Rainband]

For the weekend...current TPC forecast keeps Jeanne about 300 miles
east of the coastal waters...so the main effect would be a backing
of the winds to the north and eventually northwest with not a lot of
increase in winds or seas. Of course...a track farther west would
have more implications...so that possibility should be monitored.


&&


Fire weather...dispersions will be on the high side the next 2 days
with mixing heights a touch above normal due to drier air. The air
will not be dry enough to support minimum relative humidity values down below the
40s...though...so flags are not expected.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 072 089 071 089 / 00 20 00 20
fmy 072 089 070 089 / 10 20 10 20
gif 072 088 069 089 / 00 20 00 20
srq 072 089 069 089 / 10 20 10 20
bkv 069 089 064 089 / 00 20 00 20


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
small craft exercise caution Bonita Beach to Suwannee River out 60
nm including Tampa Bay.


&&


$$


Short term...FWA
long term...rkr


Yeah with east shift that 300 miles lessens

[jlauderdal]

For the weekend...current TPC forecast keeps Jeanne about 300 miles
east of the coastal waters...so the main effect would be a backing
of the winds to the north and eventually northwest with not a lot of
increase in winds or seas. Of course...a track farther west would
have more implications...so that possibility should be monitored.


&&


Fire weather...dispersions will be on the high side the next 2 days
with mixing heights a touch above normal due to drier air. The air
will not be dry enough to support minimum relative humidity values down below the
40s...though...so flags are not expected.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 072 089 071 089 / 00 20 00 20
fmy 072 089 070 089 / 10 20 10 20
gif 072 088 069 089 / 00 20 00 20
srq 072 089 069 089 / 10 20 10 20
bkv 069 089 064 089 / 00 20 00 20


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
small craft exercise caution Bonita Beach to Suwannee River out 60
nm including Tampa Bay.


&&


$$


Short term...FWA
long term...rkr


Yeah with east shift that 300 miles lessens

i suspect the 3 am afd wont will be tlking much less than 300 miles but we shall see.

[staggy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS FLORIDA...

SAT-NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS JEANNE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO
THE FL EAST COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

nuff said

Don't you think you left out a bit too much info? Here is the entire thing as it relates to Jeanne:

From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD:

SAT-NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS JEANNE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE FL EAST COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWARD WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT (OR WEST) OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT JEANNE WILL TURN TOWARD FL TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND CURVE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. AT EXACTLY WHAT DISTANCE FROM THE FL EAST COAST WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OUR WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS ESP ALG THE COAST AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. WILL LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TEMPORARILY DISPLACED FROM THE STATE.

[Rainband]

I meant each..instead of east lol