Model Consensus Shifting West Bigtime

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Rainband

#21 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 22, 2004 2:57 pm

MWatkins wrote:Anyone reading my post above...please note that I am not expecting one place over another...yet. All I am noting is that the models bring Jeanne further westward with each run and the threat for the SE is increasing. If will be a close call, and right now if I were in NC or FL or SC I would be equally worried in each place.

MW
I agree :wink:
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jlauderdal
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#22 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 2:59 pm

mascpa wrote:How far south do you think Jeanne can go? 26N? Could she go as low as 25N, or even lower?


as long as the ridge keeps building it can keep going sw...all interests from miami to capehatterass and in-between are canidates for landfall..remember, the models have been horrid on the strength of the ridgeing this year..ivan was a tampa or bit north system and look where that ended up.
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#23 Postby Coastal-GA » Wed Sep 22, 2004 2:59 pm

I WON'T! :eek:

Forget GA that is.....
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#24 Postby mascpa » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:00 pm

WW, you are more than welcome to this storm. I've had enough of hurricanes for this season.
But as I've learnned on this site, the trend is your friend, and the model trend looks like it wants to bring FL back into play.
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#25 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:00 pm

weatherwoman wrote:why does everyone keep talking about florida north carolina is the place being talked about by the models and thc and twc time to get off of florida sounds like you guys want it to hit you again


because of the error that far out and we tend to llok at the trends and it has been trending west and if that were to continue than its a florida deal..also the models have not been great on the ridge this year. thats the answer.
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#26 Postby Coastal-GA » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:01 pm

I'm a hundred feet from the tide...on Skidaway Island...Savannah...we never have hurricanes....but I watch them all...
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#27 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:02 pm

yoda wrote:Don't forget GA! :D


jeanne doesnt like peaches...sorry.
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#28 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:03 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
yoda wrote:Don't forget GA! :D


jeanne doesnt like peaches...sorry.


And why not? It may not like oranges either... :lol:
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#29 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:05 pm

yoda wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
yoda wrote:Don't forget GA! :D


jeanne doesnt like peaches...sorry.


And why not? It may not like oranges either... :lol:


thats the plan...I HOPE
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#30 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:05 pm

:roflmao:
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Re: Model Consensus Shifting West Bigtime

#31 Postby hiflyer » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:16 pm

[quote="MWatkins"]
This is going to be a very close call for the FL east coast and for everyone along the SE US coast...because if it does not hit FL it's going to the Carolinas.


Ahh Mike....don't worry about it for down here in SE florida....already got the grass skirt on...bone thru the nose....and I am slinging white powder all over the place while chanting oogah ooogah .... Not coming. :lol: :lol:
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Rainband

#32 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:17 pm

yoda wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
yoda wrote:Don't forget GA! :D


jeanne doesnt like peaches...sorry.


And why not? It may not like oranges either... :lol:
good ,because the citrus industry took a real hit from Charley and Frances ,we don't have many oranges left :( Gold may be cheaper than Orange juice next year if this keeps up :lol: :eek:
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#33 Postby mascpa » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:22 pm

Hey CoastalGA. Since hurricanes never hit you, you wouldn't mind if we evacuated to your area next time we're threatened would you? Thanks, buddy!
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#34 Postby opera ghost » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:26 pm

Rainband wrote:
yoda wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
yoda wrote:Don't forget GA! :D


jeanne doesnt like peaches...sorry.


And why not? It may not like oranges either... :lol:
good ,because the citrus industry took a real hit from Charley and Frances ,we don't have many oranges left :( Gold may be cheaper than Orange juice next year if this keeps up :lol: :eek:


I remember reading an artical a few weeks back that said even with the Orange losses- they have orange juice concentrate stored in such quantities that there shouldn't be a problem meeting demand.

Grapefruit though- grapefriut may be a rare commodity.
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Rainband

#35 Postby Rainband » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:27 pm

Goodpoint OG. I love Grapefruit juice :(
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#36 Postby wxwatcher2 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:30 pm

:roll:
Glad to see everyone excited again as a Hurricane moves toward the U.S. coast.

After two already, I certainly don't want Jeanne. But you know, if it comes it comes and I'll say this, we're more ready now than we were before except for the people who have damaged roofs etc.

come on Jeanne if you must. Just don't hang around like your sister Frances did.
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#37 Postby depotoo » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:33 pm

you guys are so funny !
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#38 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:39 pm

MWatkins wrote:Anyone reading my post above...please note that I am not expecting one place over another...yet. All I am noting is that the models bring Jeanne further westward with each run and the threat for the SE is increasing. If will be a close call, and right now if I were in NC or FL or SC I would be equally worried in each place.

MW



watching :wink:
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#39 Postby CourierPR » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:43 pm

With the models trending farther west and south, it is prudent for Florida to monitor the progress of Jeanne. I remember Betsy in 1965 very well.
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SouthernWx

#40 Postby SouthernWx » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:48 pm

Coastal-GA wrote:I'm a hundred feet from the tide...on Skidaway Island...Savannah...we never have hurricanes....but I watch them all...


Savannah DOES have hurricanes....over 2000 died in a cat-3 in August 1893; hundreds more in an October 1898 cat-4 and August 1881 cat-2/3.

There was considerable damage and dozens of lives lost from two strong cat-2 (100-110 mph) hurricanes...in August 1940 and October 1947. Even a landfalling cat-2 hurricane along the Georgia coast can be extremely dangerous....because the shallow slope offshore can mean a significant storm surge (10-13') from even a 100 mph hurricane. The 1893 hurricane was only about 115-120 mph (950-954 mb) at landfall...but the large 15-17' storm surge completely submerged the barrier islands from Savannah to Charleston....including Skidaway, Tybee, and Hilton Head.

Don't let the past few decades fool you.....the Georgia coast can and has experienced intense killer hurricanes in the past, and will again. Looking over the latest guidance, it WON'T surprise me if Jeanne impacts the Georgia coast late this upcoming weekend...and won't surprise me if it does so as a strong cat-2 or cat-3 hurricane (110-120 mph).
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