Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 94L

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cycloneye
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Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 94L

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:29 pm

Code: Select all

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 221531Z SEP 04//
WTNT 24 KNGU 221200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.1N9 87.0W5 TO 28.1N1 93.1W3
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 221700Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.0N8 87.0W5.  THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 231200Z8.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atc ... 212004.gif
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#2 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:30 pm

NOOOOOOO!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

So TD at 5?
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#3 Postby Houstonia » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:31 pm

What exactly is a tropical cyclone versus a Tropical Depression or tropical storm?
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#4 Postby opera ghost » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:31 pm

Say it ain't so....

What do they mean by "significant"? Do they mean a named TS? Uuuuugh.
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#5 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:32 pm

Houstonia wrote:What exactly is a tropical cyclone versus a Tropical Depression or tropical storm?


There is no difference. A TC is a Depression, storm, or hurricane.
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#6 Postby senorpepr » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:32 pm

Tropical cyclone, in this term, means a system that is tropical in nature. In other words, it's a generic term.
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#7 Postby TxIceMan » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:32 pm

cyclone is a more general term....it means the same thing as a TD or TS
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#8 Postby golter » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:32 pm

no, it will not be issued at 5:00
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:34 pm

No TD at 5 PM but this means that in 12-24 hours it will be or a TD or a tropical storm.
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#10 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:35 pm

Ughhhhhhhhh
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#11 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:No TD at 5 PM but this means that in 12-24 hours it will be or a TD or a tropical storm.

Ah ok. :eek:
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#12 Postby golter » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:No TD at 5 PM but this means that in 12-24 hours it will be or a TD or a tropical storm.



No it says possible. Until shear relents, we wont have much....
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#13 Postby Houstonia » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:37 pm

I for one am doing a little dance - we need the rain here in SE Texas. LA needs the rain too...

A relatively short heavy downpour - tropical storm style. That's all we want, that's all we need...

:raincloud:
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#14 Postby jes » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:50 pm

When Ivan hit Montgomery, Al as a tropical storm I don't remember that much rain, but the city lost all power for over 24 hrs and there were some trees and signs down. It amazed me, because I also used to like tropical storms. Also, Ivan in Mobile was only a cat 1 or 2( so they say) and there are lots of trees down here. I guess in the future I'll have to settle for strong thunder storms. Even though Houston needs rain don't wish for Ivan --because he is a bad guy.
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#15 Postby senorpepr » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:50 pm

opera ghost wrote:Say it ain't so....

What do they mean by "significant"? Do they mean a named TS? Uuuuugh.


Significant is just a standard thing they say. Nothing to worry about. This is really all just standard. Anytime recon goes out, you will likely see one of these messages.
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#16 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:52 pm

No need for "ughhh" this thing obviously won't get too strong with all the sheer and we REALLY need the rain. A good 3-5 inch rain from this thing would be just what we needed. I'm doing a rain dance too!
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#17 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 22, 2004 3:55 pm

Bring it on, I evacuated for the first Ivan. And you, sir, are no first IVAN! :lol:
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#18 Postby BayouVenteux » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:14 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:No need for "ughhh" this thing obviously won't get too strong with all the sheer and we REALLY need the rain. A good 3-5 inch rain from this thing would be just what we needed. I'm doing a rain dance too!
So far I am throughly unimpressed by the rain potential from little Ivanovitch for any part of Louisiana east of Lake Charles. You might do O.K. in Lafayette perhaps, but the afternoon AFD for New Orleans/Baton Rouge progs a deluge-promising 50% for tomorrow (oooh!, ahhh!), while trending downward to a 20% chance for Friday. And hey! More dry air is forecasted after that as a cool front struggles or slides into the area, depending on which particular NWS discussion you read. :roll:

I wish I could get excited, but I have a feeling it will be the hose doing most of the watering around my yard for the foreseeable future.

Enjoy the rain Texans, I know y'all need it as badly as we do in many places.
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#19 Postby stormie_skies » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:16 pm

I for one will be THRILLED if we get a little rain - as long as it waits to visit Houston until tomorrow night, when I am home and can enjoy it :D
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#20 Postby depotoo » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:24 pm

you better think twice - little ivan came through here and brought an additional 5-7 inches of rain in a relatively short time preiod too.
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