94L will be called Ivan,Recon delayed

DoctorHurricane2003 · #21 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:02 pm

dj....

"From the time it split off"

Yeah....that's not the original Ivan.

Time for a mass email to the NHC....lol

#22 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:03 pm

Houstonia wrote:I would bet that's their motivation in keeping it Ivan.

In addition to the synoptics (which will be argued long after Ivan is truly dead), that's got to be what NHC is thinking.

But, you know what? Watch the NHC go ahead with Matthew just to show us who the boss is!

#23 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:03 pm

I don't see any incentive for the NOLA NWS to lie about the NHC calling it Ivan.

#24 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:04 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:I did read it for one thing to let you know but what i just heard on the reboardcast news was that it will be given a new name if it develops but anyway we all hear different things so.

The bottom line is that the NHC is telling the NWS out of New Orleans, LA this not a local weatherman. So why would you
disagree with it? As a matter of fact the NHC said they would have no choice but to rename it Ivan on Monday when it was crossing Fl.

PTrackerLA · #25 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:04 pm

Cape Verde wrote:I wouldn't want it to be named Ivan, but I'm hoping it never gets named at all.

Well I'm hoping for a weak TS. I've recorded less than 5" of rain at my house since July 1 and only .30" so far in September. My trees are looking sickly and stressed and I'm having to water shrubs every other day just to keep them alive. Bottom line is we need a DUMPING. I'm not wishing for flooding but we could easily handle 5" of rain right now and we need it. 70% chance for tomorrow now woo hoo!

golter · #26 Postby **golter** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:04 pm

This is not even a numbered depression, there is not any reason to "sit up and TAKE NOTICE".

This time tomorrow it will all be clear. The shear has not let let up. It only has a shor time to do anything. Right now lets call it what it is...."yard waterer"

#27 Postby **Houstonia** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:05 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
Houstonia wrote:I would bet that's their motivation in keeping it Ivan.

In addition to the synoptics (which will be argued long after Ivan is truly dead), that's got to be what NHC is thinking.

But, you know what? Watch the NHC go ahead with Matthew just to show us who the boss is!

Probably... actually though - I don't care what the name of the storm is, as long as people take notice of it.

What are y'all arguing about anyway? It's a name for goodness sakes - just keep up with where the "event" is going!!!

Man, y'all will argue about the year on the quarter laying in my parking lot if I let you...

lilbump3000 · #28 Postby **lilbump3000** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:05 pm

Ok to make yall happy lets go with it IVAN we are ready for you again.

#29 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:07 pm

golter wrote:This is not even a numbered depression, there is not any reason to "sit up and TAKE NOTICE".

This time tomorrow it will all be clear. The shear has not let let up. It only has a shor time to do anything. Right now lets call it what it is...."yard waterer"

It's not moving very fast and it IS organizing so that your
thinking MAY be incorrect.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#30 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:09 pm

Stormcenter wrote:It's not moving very fast and it IS organizing so that your
thinking MAY be incorrect.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Am I seeing this right? It's fighting shear from the south/southwest?

Matthew5 · #31 Postby **Matthew5** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:12 pm

I'm fairly sure when the recon gets in there they will find a tropical depresison maybe even a weak tropical storm. Why because there is clearly a LLCC(In visible)With banding moving into the system. When that shear dies down the convection could very well wrap around the system very fast. So I'm going to wait for recon. The system has at least 24 hours to get better oreganized even if it went to the northwest. In more time if it turned back west. The water over the western Gulf of Mexico is way warm enough. It will likely be named Matthew because most of Ivan went off to Briton. More like what we seen last year with tropical depression 6 spliting to form tropical depression 7. Really if recon founds that there is a surface low pressure area in winds of 30 to 35 mph this will be upgraded to a depression. That sample!

#32 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:12 pm

golter wrote:This is not even a numbered depression, there is not any reason to "sit up and TAKE NOTICE".

This time tomorrow it will all be clear. The shear has not let let up. It only has a shor time to do anything. Right now lets call it what it is...."yard waterer"

This logic is about as extreme as the other side, saying this system will develop into strong TS or minimal hurricane.

Alicia in 1983 had a "short time" and look what happened.

Wise folks will watch closely at what's happening out there in the central Gulf.

DoctorHurricane2003 · #33 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:16 pm

I didn't see dj's latest post...

There is a difference between extratropical systems with troughs having a low split off...and the reformation of a center under an existing tropical cyclone.

1) The first instance is a new cyclone...as it came from a split trough/extratropical low. The system was not a tropical cyclone at that time...and the old center continued moving away...as there were two continual centers.

2) The second instance is just a reorganization of an existing cyclone. Its not a split trough, extratropical, etc.

SouthernWx · #34 Postby **SouthernWx** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:20 pm

Odds are 94 will be a 50-60 mph tropical storm at landfall...IMO between Morgan City (LA) and Freeport (TX), but one word of caution. With sst's of 29-30°c in the NW GOM....if shear lets up, this thing could organize and strengthen in a hurry. A hurricane isn't out of the question before landfall.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #35 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:21 pm

The NHC had a similar thing happen last year. TD 6 formed and then fell apart. The remnants of 6 split and the main core of the former depression continued westward. A other splitee continued northwest until it became a depression. Although many thought it should be numbered "6", it was numbered "7"

With that in mind, Ivan split apart. The bulk of him is approaching Europe. In theory, this should be numbered 14/named Matthew. However, we shall see. The NHC changes things one in a while to keep us hopping.

Shoshana · #36 Postby **Shoshana** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:22 pm

Guess we'll find out in the next day or so what they're namin it... if it gets named at all.

Whether it's Ivan, Mattthew or Nicole, it's gonna be one of those storms with an "*" next to it.

If it gets named. And if they do name it "Ivan" the track maps will look kinda ... weird. What with part going out over the Atl and 'remnants' coming back inland for seconds...

Thunder44 · #37 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:22 pm

5:30PM TWO seems to indicate that if it develops they will name it Ivan again.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 0.RAW.html

#38 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:24 pm

senorpepr wrote:The NHC had a similar thing happen last year. TD 6 formed and then fell apart. The remnants of 6 split and the main core of the former depression continued westward. A other splitee continued northwest until it became a depression. Although many thought it should be numbered "6", it was numbered "7"

With that in mind, Ivan split apart. The bulk of him is approaching Europe. In theory, this should be numbered 14/named Matthew. However, we shall see. The NHC changes things one in a while to keep us hopping.

With that said, looks like the NHC has flip-flopped.

NHC wrote:Satellite images and surface data indicate that the area of low pressure in the north central Gulf of Mexico...which has been determined by the National Hurricane Center to be the remnant of Ivan...may be redeveloping into a tropical cyclone. Squalls with gusts near tropical storm force are already occurring near the Louisiana coast. If a reconnaissance plane... currently approaching the system...determines that a cyclone has reformed...advisories on Ivan will be reinitiated. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for additional development. This system is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Interests along the north central and northwestern Gulf Coast and over adjacent waters should closely monitor the progress of this weather system and be ready to take actions...if necessary.

#39 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:24 pm

Thunder44 wrote:5:30PM TWO seems to indicate that if it develops they will name it Ivan again.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 0.RAW.html

Not "seems to", it WILL be named Ivan (if it develops).

golter · #40 Postby **golter** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:24 pm

SouthernWx wrote:Odds are 94 will be a 50-60 mph tropical storm at landfall...IMO between Morgan City (LA) and Freeport (TX), but one word of caution. With sst's of 29-30°c in the NW GOM....if shear lets up, this thing could organize and strengthen in a hurry. A hurricane isn't out of the question before landfall.

Whos odds?? we dont even have a TD yet and your making landfall calls already. If Shear lets up, if shear lets up, if shear lets up, yada yada yada... enough. Let it get a number first then we will worry about giving it a name.

94L will be called Ivan,Recon delayed

Who is online