IT WILL BE IVAN

[OtherHD]

697
ABNT20 KNHC 222119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JEANNE...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF GREAT ABACO IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...ON HURRICANE KARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1400
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WESTERNMOST AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN
DETERMINED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO BE THE REMNANT OF
IVAN...MAY BE REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST. IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE... CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE SYSTEM...DETERMINES THAT A CYCLONE HAS REFORMED...ADVISORIES ON
IVAN WILL BE REINITIATED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND
OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND NEARING TROPICAL STORM LISA IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
WELL-ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, what they say goes.

[djti]

yep...no question now.....and i would agree...i think the upper level circulation and most of the moisture merged with the trough and is heading to europe....the lower/midlevel circulation remnant is now in the gulf....

very long sat loops (which the nhc no doubt used in making this decision) seems to show that....

"could be ivan" more than "will be ivan"...based on their intensification blurb.

[OtherHD]

Bah, I was the first one who posted this, and yet I get the fewest replies.

[SouthernWx]

IMHO...another bigtime public relations blunder by NHC....but it's their call. They have to live with it, and endure the IMO inevitable critisism to come....not me.

On another note ....Avila really knows how to screw up my 2004 hurricane chart doesn't he?

[OtherHD]

What kind of criticism do you think they'll receive?

[HurryKane]

Bah, I was the first one who posted this, and yet I get the fewest replies.

We posted at the exact same time....it's not a contest

besides now that I look it appears it was really posted first deep in another thread.

[kevin]

Crisis to come? Its just a dumb name really.

[wabbitoid]

It needs to be Ivanito. That's what it's known as already!

[Tri-State_1925]

Ivan, the legend continues...

[LAwxrgal]

Like someone said, it's like a bad horror sequel, "Ivan the Terrible Returns."

[Roxy]

hey, will they name it Ivan?

[dhweather]

The poor folks in Alabama/Florida, only with radios for communication, will hear IVAN HAS REGENERATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO - just what they need.

I hope they preface it with VERY WEAK TROPICAL STORM NO GROWTH EXPECTED.......

[Fego]

Ivan 2. Guess seconds parts never are better than first ones.

[Chilly_Water]

I still like "Ivan's Spawn."

[LAwxrgal]

^ Absolutely....I feel for those poor folks.

[Steve]

I like Spawn as well (The HBO series was great). I'm wondering if I'll see more than the 5 second ground wetting I got from his first visit. Currently, his outer most feeder band is moving up on the city. I wonder.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

It needs to be Ivanito. That's what it's known as already!

Ivancito: Little Ivan

[SouthernWx]

What kind of criticism do you think they'll receive?

Being insensitive to Ivan victims around Pensacola and Gulf Shores.....causing duress and undu stress.

Of course, I have selfish reasons for this to become "Mathew" and not Ivan-II. We're almost on record pace...if 93 and 94 both become storms tomorrow, we'd have 14 named storms by September 23rd....ahead of 1995's pace (when 19 named storms occurred), and close behind the most active Atlantic hurricane season in history (1933- 21 named storms).

If this GOM system is renamed Ivan, it will inevitably mean the difference in a record-breaking season or not. What really ticks me....there's no doubt in the pre-satellite era of the 1930's, this storm would have been assigned another number.

With this system being called Ivan (and watching recon of 1009 mb, a west wind, and 700 mb flight level winds of 45 mph, there's little doubt IMO we'll see Ivan at 11 p.m.), it does mean ANOTHER new record in this increasingly bizarre hurricane season: the first and only time a major hurricane has made landfall along the Gulf coast....moved inland to the southern Appalachians, east offshore North Carolina/ Virginia...then looped south and west offshore the SE coast -- to once again become a named storm in the GOM. It's never happened before, and IMO may never happen again.

[Stephanie]

I still like "Ivan's Spawn."

I like that one as well!