5:30 PM TWO=TC IVAN reforming in NGOM,Waiting for recon

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cycloneye
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5:30 PM TWO=TC IVAN reforming in NGOM,Waiting for recon

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:22 pm

Code: Select all

ABNT20 KNHC 222119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JEANNE...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF GREAT ABACO IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...ON HURRICANE KARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1400
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WESTERNMOST AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN
DETERMINED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO BE THE REMNANT OF
IVAN...MAY BE REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST. IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE... CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE SYSTEM...DETERMINES THAT A CYCLONE HAS REFORMED...ADVISORIES ON
IVAN WILL BE REINITIATED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND
OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND NEARING TROPICAL STORM LISA IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
WELL-ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:23 pm

LOL...3rd post of EXACT same thing. Anyone else???
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:23 pm

Advisories may start depending on what recon finds this evening.
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Re: 5:30 PM TWO=TC reforming in NGOM,Waiting for recon

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:

Code: Select all

ABNT20 KNHC 222119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JEANNE...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF GREAT ABACO IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...ON HURRICANE KARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1400
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WESTERNMOST AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN
DETERMINED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO BE THE REMNANT OF
IVAN...MAY BE REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST. IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE... CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE SYSTEM...DETERMINES THAT A CYCLONE HAS REFORMED...ADVISORIES ON
IVAN WILL BE REINITIATED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND
OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND NEARING TROPICAL STORM LISA IS MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
WELL-ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA



Well that should put to rest the heated discussions as to what the system will be named (IVAN) to rest once and for all.
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Matthew5

#5 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:26 pm

This has to be a utter joke? Why are they renaming this Ivan when this a a piece that was spinned off from a redevelopment off a cold core low off Ivan? That formed off the east coast. While at the same time the system called Ivan is now over seas?
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:26 pm

And 93L is going to be a TD tonight or tommorow.
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kevin

#7 Postby kevin » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:26 pm

Yay!
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#8 Postby stormie_skies » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:29 pm

Wow, we might actually have 5 systems at once?!?!?!?! :eek:
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#9 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:30 pm

Matthew5 wrote:This has to be a utter joke? Why are they renaming this Ivan when this a a piece that was spinned off from a redevelopment off a cold core low off Ivan? That formed off the east coast. While at the same time the system called Ivan is now over seas?


The big BOSS (NHC) has spoken. End of story.
I have a bad feeling they will name it Ivan after recon goes
in there. It looks like convvection is exploding right where
they say the center is.
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Matthew5

#10 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:31 pm

If they rename this Ivan this will be the first time in history that a tropical cyclone was hitting the Gulf coast then off the East then into the Gulf of Mexico again.

:lol: :) :)
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Matthew5

#11 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:32 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Matthew5 wrote:This has to be a utter joke? Why are they renaming this Ivan when this a a piece that was spinned off from a redevelopment off a cold core low off Ivan? That formed off the east coast. While at the same time the system called Ivan is now over seas?


The big BOSS (NHC) has spoken. End of story.
I have a bad feeling they will name it Ivan after recon goes
in there. It looks like convvection is exploding right where
they say the center is.



I wish they would named it Matthew because Ivan is back for more! :eek:
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#12 Postby stormie_skies » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:33 pm

ROFL....if the UKMET verifies, it looks like it might get a third shot at the Gulf coast, too.... :lol: If that happens, we will have to test Ivan for steroids or something :eek:
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#13 Postby opera ghost » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:33 pm

Ivan will not be forgotten... that's for sure....
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#14 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:35 pm

Ivan is back as a ghost to haunt the GOM :eek:
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#15 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:35 pm

Whatever the Hurricane hunters find, SE LA is in for some squally weather late tonight.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml


But remember the rain is badly needed around here, we just don't want the winds...
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#16 Postby Ixolib » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:39 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Whatever the Hurricane hunters find, SE LA is in for some squally weather late tonight.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml


But remember the rain is badly needed around here, we just don't want the winds...


Is that stuff moving north? Or maybe a little NNE?
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djti

#17 Postby djti » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:40 pm

matthew...they obviously dont agree with anything about your scenario about what happened.

1st....have you seen a long sat loop of ivan from landfall to the east coast of florida...
2nd...isnt it possible that the upper level portion of the low is the part that was absorbed by the trough and moved out to sea...which is what the NHC is saying...and which is what the sat loop may show.
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golter

#18 Postby golter » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:42 pm

Ixolib wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Whatever the Hurricane hunters find, SE LA is in for some squally weather late tonight.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml


But remember the rain is badly needed around here, we just don't want the winds...


Is that stuff moving north? Or maybe a little NNE?



Yes.
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Anonymous

#19 Postby Anonymous » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:45 pm

Matthew5 wrote:This has to be a utter joke? Why are they renaming this Ivan when this a a piece that was spinned off from a redevelopment off a cold core low off Ivan? That formed off the east coast. While at the same time the system called Ivan is now over seas?


You just want your name used LOL :)
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#20 Postby Ixolib » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:46 pm

golter wrote:
Ixolib wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Whatever the Hurricane hunters find, SE LA is in for some squally weather late tonight.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml


But remember the rain is badly needed around here, we just don't want the winds...


Is that stuff moving north? Or maybe a little NNE?



Yes.


Thought this "system" was going to Texas. Has something changed, or is this just bands moving in this general direction?
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