94L will be called Ivan,Recon delayed

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #41 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:32 pm

golter wrote:Whos odds?? we dont even have a TD yet and your making landfall calls already. If Shear lets up, if shear lets up, if shear lets up, yada yada yada... enough. Let it get a number first then we will worry about giving it a name.

Actually, if it does become a depression... it will return to number 9, but would automatically be named TD Ivan, per NHC.

Thunder44 · #42 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:37 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:5:30PM TWO seems to indicate that if it develops they will name it Ivan again.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 0.RAW.html

Not "seems to", it WILL be named Ivan (if it develops).

Yes it's been made clear now.

New Recon obs shows they found WSW and WNW winds. Lowest pressure 1009mb.

URNT11 KNHC 222115
97779 21154 40266 88700 02700 23015 25222 /0009 42215
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 07

;
URNT11 KNHC 222128
97779 21284 40261 89300 02800 28013 25208 /0010 42615
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 08

#43 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:41 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
Steve Cosby wrote:Not "seems to", it WILL be named Ivan (if it develops).

Well, they didn't exactly say it would named Ivan if it developed. So that's why I said it "seems" based through my own interpertation.

New Recon obs shows they found WSW and WNW winds. Lowest pressure 1009mb.

Here's the money quote from the TWO:

IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE... CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM...DETERMINES THAT A CYCLONE HAS REFORMED...ADVISORIES ON IVAN WILL BE REINITIATED.

The visible shows the swirling winds. Of course, the swirling winds are visible due to shear, also...

#44 Postby **Houstonia** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:41 pm

Has there even been any recon reports out yet??

Thunder44 · #45 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:42 pm

Yeah, sorry, I just reread the whole thing. I edited my post.

#46 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:42 pm

Houstonia wrote:Has there even been any recon reports out yet??

Did you read the next to last post before yours?

(in other words, yes)

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:44 pm

Code: Select all

URNT11 KNHC 222138
97779 21384 40267 89200 02800 99005 24222 /0009 49905
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 09

#48 Postby **Houstonia** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:44 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
Houstonia wrote:Has there even been any recon reports out yet??

Did you read the next to last post before yours?

(in other words, yes)

Saw it after I posted my question - can anyone tell me what the recon reports mean? They found wsw winds, etc. What are the implications?

Hyperstorm · #49 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:46 pm

djti wrote:this isnt a brand new circulation center....it was intact from the time it split off to now.......the sat loops are rather compelling.

Was it really? Well, I think it's time for some interesting images...

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091812.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091900.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091912.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 092000.gif

Enjoy!

#50 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:46 pm

Houstonia wrote:Saw it after I posted my question - can anyone tell me what the recon reports mean? They found wsw winds, etc. What are the implications?

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/recco.htm

Give it 15-30 minutes more (patience is a virtue!). We'll see a vortex next.

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.htm for reading vortex messages or use this link for a wonderful decoder: http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php

ROCK · #51 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:50 pm

senorpepr wrote:
golter wrote:Whos odds?? we dont even have a TD yet and your making landfall calls already. If Shear lets up, if shear lets up, if shear lets up, yada yada yada... enough. Let it get a number first then we will worry about giving it a name.

Actually, if it does become a depression... it will return to number 9, but would automatically be named TD Ivan, per NHC.

if we want to get realllyyy technical is does have a number INVEST 94L....

djti · #52 Postby **djti** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:54 pm

those are radar maps......the sat loops which the nhc used to make this decision are the interesting ones...

#53 Postby **stormcloud** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:55 pm

From the 5:30 discussion from the TPC:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN DETERMINED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO BE THE REMNANT OF IVAN...MAY BE REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

Matthew5 · #54 Postby **Matthew5** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:56 pm

I could say that tropical depression 7 last year was tropical depression 6? What is the differences?

Hyperstorm · #55 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:05 pm

djti wrote:those are radar maps......the sat loops which the nhc used to make this decision are the interesting ones...

I'm referring to the surface reflection. You clearly don't see any signs of a surface low from Ivan in the last image.

If the NHC wants to rename it Ivan based on it being a PARTIAL remnant of the storm, then let it be. I just point at the facts...

#56 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:24 pm

The renaming of this system "Ivan" is a bad idea. Really bad idea.

If I'm not mistaken, this is a piece that broke off of the main thrust of what was Ivan, am I correct?

#57 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:27 pm

Historically, they have resumed advisories if regeneration occurs.

This partial remnant is the low level circulation of Ivan.

They make the call here, not us.

Ivan it is, and I AM NOT EVACUATING AGAIN FOR HIM!!!!! :lol:

#58 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:31 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:
djti wrote:this isnt a brand new circulation center....it was intact from the time it split off to now.......the sat loops are rather compelling.

Was it really? Well, I think it's time for some interesting images...

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091812.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091900.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091912.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 092000.gif

Enjoy!

Oh please...you can't take WXP (as it was formerly known..before being bought by Unisys) output seriously over the oceans (or very seriously over the land either). Trust me, WXP was developed here at Purdue and we used to use it all the time - it's crap. The surface obs are only over the land (and maybe a buoy or ship here and there) so there is no way it will pick up a surface low at the edge of the map, over the ocean.

recmod · #59 Postby **recmod** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:37 pm

NRL has Ivan back up...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Hyperstorm · #60 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:57 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:
Hyperstorm wrote:
djti wrote:this isnt a brand new circulation center....it was intact from the time it split off to now.......the sat loops are rather compelling.

Was it really? Well, I think it's time for some interesting images...

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091812.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091900.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 091912.gif

http://www.weather.unisys.com/archive/s ... 092000.gif

Enjoy!

Oh please...you can't take WXP (as it was formerly known..before being bought by Unisys) output seriously over the oceans (or very seriously over the land either). Trust me, WXP was developed here at Purdue and we used to use it all the time - it's crap. The surface obs are only over the land (and maybe a buoy or ship here and there) so there is no way it will pick up a surface low at the edge of the map, over the ocean.

Oh yes it can...Just by looking at visible satellite images, you can fairly clearly see if a low pressure center is closed and/or has reached the surface...and I can tell you that the system DIDN'T have any rotation when it exited the coast. It stretched greatly from NE to SE resembling a frontal trough.

I'm not going to debate the naming of the system...

94L will be called Ivan,Recon delayed

Recon Reports?

Re: Recon Reports?

Re: Recon Reports?

Re: Recon Reports?

Ivan it is

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