5:30 PM TWO=TC IVAN reforming in NGOM,Waiting for recon

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golter

#21 Postby golter » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:49 pm

System is headed for LA at this time...
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#22 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:53 pm

Looks like it is hardly even moving...The center that is..
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#23 Postby stormie_skies » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:54 pm

Looks to me like the cloud tops are being sheared off to the north, but the center of circulation is still moving somewhere between WNW and NW...
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#24 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:56 pm

golter wrote:System is headed for LA at this time...


Here we go again. How do say the System is heading into LA at this time without having a definite fix on position and heading. Are you getting that from the vis-loops or are you in direct contact with the recon-plane?? :D just wondering....seems like we have had this discussion earlier today...hmmmm
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#25 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 22, 2004 4:59 pm

Ixolib wrote:

Thought this "system" was going to Texas. Has something changed, or is this just bands moving in this general direction?


It's not actually moving N or NNE. What's happening is the LLC is jumping northward towards the convection. The system as a whole is still moving WNW. However, in weak systems such as this...the center has a tendancy to move towards the convection and what that will do is impact the end-game landfall. Now...instead of Matagorda-GLS...we are looking at GLS-Lake Charles. ..depending on how much reforming/movement towards the convection takes place before it hooks back WNW.

This is always a difficult forecast with weak systems because they have a hard to determining where they want their center to be. The steering flow is WNW because of a ridge that extends from the NE-NW of the system.
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#26 Postby Ixolib » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:04 pm

Thanks, AFM. As always, you keep it clean and real.
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#27 Postby stormie_skies » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:04 pm

Thanks for clearing that up, AFM! :clap:
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#28 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:06 pm

Has recon even gave a possible center yet?
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#29 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:12 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Has recon even gave a possible center yet?


I don't think they will be able to fix a vortex on this one yet. There appear to be a coulpe of vortices rotating around. It's basically a broad area of low pressure...but I have no doubts it is a TD...based on sustained 25-30kt winds over most of the northern GOM. Only question is: Do they want to see more organization before they name it.

I say they need to at least upgrade it to a TD based on sfc obs alone. If they don't...then they need to issue an apology for upgrading TS Grace :-)
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#30 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:15 pm

I WILL NOT BOARD UP AND EVACUATE AGAIN FOR IVAN! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#31 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:17 pm

It is the bands, not the system you see moving in what seems to be a N direction.
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#32 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:18 pm

True...It still looks as though the main LLC is still to the south of all the convection...

Hell Joe B. mentioned that this could become another big Texas flood event as the system could stall as it moves towards Beaumont and then moves slowly WSW..Crazy but he pegged it getting back into the Gulf...
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#33 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:20 pm

thanks AFM....as always you keep it real. Have you compared the similarities to this and Alicia. They seem to have formed in the same area and track is pretty close to identical if the center is farther south than anticipated. What I am concerned about is rapid deepening as seen in 83. 1 millibar per hour for 12 hours before landfall..nasty stuff..
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#34 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:21 pm

Ivan.........

Ughhhhhhhhhhh
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#35 Postby Roxy » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:25 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Has recon even gave a possible center yet?


I don't think they will be able to fix a vortex on this one yet. There appear to be a coulpe of vortices rotating around. It's basically a broad area of low pressure...but I have no doubts it is a TD...based on sustained 25-30kt winds over most of the northern GOM. Only question is: Do they want to see more organization before they name it.

I say they need to at least upgrade it to a TD based on sfc obs alone. If they don't...then they need to issue an apology for upgrading TS Grace :-)


I wish they'd upgrade. Remember Allison?

No one knew it was coming till it was here and I guarantee no one was expecting what was to come.
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