18Z GFS is continuing the westward trend of Jeanne tracks ..

[ameriwx2003]

who is it that said the trend is your friend?

Well DT, http://www.wxrisk.com I know uses that phrase:):).. One thing I noticed also is the GFS is faster with bringing Jeanne west now.. Its going to be a interesting next few days:):)

[caneman]

Don't to forget to add Nogaps into the mix now as it has Central Florida hit. Not liking the trend my friend.

[PurdueWx80]

The 18Z literally takes Jeanne up right along the entire coast from south FL to North Carolina over the course of several days...insane.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138m.gif

[Sanibel]

Forgive me for curmudgeonly crudeness, but the models are garbage and were all over the place on almost every single storm so far.

What I do is skim between general short term model tracks, Derek-like sources, this site for synoptics, NHC, and gut instincts. The models, however, taken straight, will grow crow feathers on anyone who interprets them directly...

[x-y-no]

Forgive me for curmudgeonly crudeness, but the models are garbage and were all over the place on almost every single storm so far.

What I do is skim between general short term model tracks, Derek-like sources, this site for synoptics, NHC, and gut instincts. The models, however, taken straight, will grow crow feathers on anyone who interprets them directly...

I agree. I look at the models for guidance, and for guidance only. I'm gradually getting a bit of a feel for how and why they go wrong ... it's a slow process, though.

Maybe by next year I'll have enough confidence to start posting forecasts.

[TampaFl]

[jpigott]

i for one couldn't agree with you more Sanibel about taking to heart model X,Y, or Z, however what i am concerned about is the TREND

[MWatkins]

Yep...direct SFL landfall in the model...following the NOGAPS solution.

Looks like the model that weakens ridges too fast is back backing off the ridge weakening. Expect the model consensus...the GFDL and the NHC official forecast to come further west at 11:00PM.

This could reate a rather short fuse situation for FL. 00Z model runs will be watched with interest to see if the trend continues. I hope NOT.

MW

[ameriwx2003]

Forgive me for curmudgeonly crudeness, but the models are garbage and were all over the place on almost every single storm so far.

Sanibel.. Agreed.. I am not looking at any one model but looking at the trend of backing Jeanne further west each day from all the models.:)

[breeezy]

"curmudgeonly" ???

[LAwxrgal]

I apologize, I haven't followed this storm very closely... This storm was the same one that nearly disappeared over Haiti and Hispaniola...and now she is a big-time hurricane....
If I was in Florida I'd be worried...

[x-y-no]

Yep...direct SFL landfall in the model...following the NOGAPS solution.

Looks like the model that weakens ridges too fast is back backing off the ridge weakening. Expect the model consensus...the GFDL and the NHC official forecast to come further west at 11:00PM.

This could reate a rather short fuse situation for FL. 00Z model runs will be watched with interest to see if the trend continues. I hope NOT.

MW

I think they'll have to move the track forecast west at 11, but I doubt they'll go so far as to show a Florida landfall. If the trend continues with the 0Z runs we may see that at 5am.

[bosag]

So what particular day do we have in mind for a landfall?. We are going down to Hillsboro Beach to visit the inlaws at their timeshare, will be back saturday late morning?
My inlaws did bring a generator w/ them, so I guess Ill be filling the gas cans tomorrow:)

TIA Barb