Dang !! Ivan appears at NRL

[Brent]

They will probably issue a special tropical disturbance statement or a special advisory before 11 PM.

I'm sure they will, especially with it so close to land.

[Aquawind]

REDRUM..REDRUM..REDRUM..

[stormie_skies]

LMAO!

[dhweather]

Man! I KNEW something didn't look right about Ivan when he made landfall!

LMAO!!!!!


THis is post of the year material!!!!!

[Brent]

Man! I KNEW something didn't look right about Ivan when he made landfall!

[LAwxrgal]

^ROTFLMBO

[Thunder44]

Ivan is a zombie!

[Fego]

Invest no, INVANT.. may be. Ehh forget it, I have a date with psychologist.. BTW his name is Ivan El Loco.. lol

[hibiscushouse]

Oh Gawd Wendy, that was so funny!

[Stormsfury]

I have a BIG PROBLEM with this being constituted as Ivan ... a BIG one ... first of all, it was "a partial remnant" ... it's only a piece, and at that, was a 500mb vort max, NOTHING on the SFC ... the actual SFC reflection was absorbed away into the larger scale extratropical cyclone ...

I'm NOT critical of TPC and they've obviously come up with good reason to do so, but the EXACT same thing occurred with Iris crossing from the ATL into the E PAC in 2001 ...

Read Hurricane Iris's and then Tropical Storm Manuel's PRELIM REPORTS ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001iris.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001manuel.html

Code: Select all

Manuel formed from the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Iris, which struck southern Belize as a Category Four hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) early on 9 October. By 1800 UTC, the core circulation of Iris had dissipated over the mountains of eastern Mexico, while new convection was developing a short distance away over the waters of the Pacific. This area became better organized over the next 18 hours and became Tropical Depression Fifteen-E at 1200 UTC 10 October, about 175 n mi south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. (Note: current operational policy is that tropical cyclones crossing into another basin retain their original name; since Iris had dissipated as a tropical cyclone prior to entering the eastern North Pacific basin, the new depression was properly named Fifteen-E, rather than Iris.)

New guidelines came into effect in 2001 in regards to either naming/renaming systems crossing from the ATL into the EPAC and vice versa ... should a storm cross into the other basin, and was still the same identifiable system, the basin's name would be retained ...

And the point is in 2001, IF the core circulation was still intact on Iris, the name "IRIS" would have been retained ... but it wasn't ... there was NO CORE CIRC or SFC CIRC. Ivan's the same animal ... NO SFC reflection (which was absorbed into the larger extratropical system, just a 500mb little vort max) ... it has developed a NEW SFC reflection ... it is NOT the same circ... and therefore should NOT be getting the same name ...

SF

[TampaFl]

[Hyperstorm]

I have a BIG PROBLEM with this being constituted as Ivan ... a BIG one ... first of all, it was "a partial remnant" ... it's only a piece, and at that, was a 500mb vort max, NOTHING on the SFC ... the actual SFC reflection was absorbed away into the larger scale extratropical cyclone ...

I'm NOT critical of TPC and they've obviously come up with good reason to do so, but the EXACT same thing occurred with Iris crossing from the ATL into the E PAC in 2001 ...

Read Hurricane Iris's and then Tropical Storm Manuel's PRELIM REPORTS ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001iris.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001manuel.html

Code: Select all

Manuel formed from the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Iris, which struck southern Belize as a Category Four hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) early on 9 October. By 1800 UTC, the core circulation of Iris had dissipated over the mountains of eastern Mexico, while new convection was developing a short distance away over the waters of the Pacific. This area became better organized over the next 18 hours and became Tropical Depression Fifteen-E at 1200 UTC 10 October, about 175 n mi south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. (Note: current operational policy is that tropical cyclones crossing into another basin retain their original name; since Iris had dissipated as a tropical cyclone prior to entering the eastern North Pacific basin, the new depression was properly named Fifteen-E, rather than Iris.)

New guidelines came into effect in 2001 in regards to either naming/renaming systems crossing from the ATL into the EPAC and vice versa ... should a storm cross into the other basin, and was still the same identifiable system, the basin's name would be retained ...

And the point is in 2001, IF the core circulation was still intact on Iris, the name "IRIS" would have been retained ... but it wasn't ... there was NO CORE CIRC or SFC CIRC. Ivan's the same animal ... NO SFC reflection (which was absorbed into the larger extratropical system, just a 500mb little vort max) ... it has developed a NEW SFC reflection ... it is NOT the same circ... and therefore should NOT be getting the same name ...

SF

BRAVO! Excellent analysis, Stormsfury. I couldn't agree with you more.

Regarding the name change when it crosses oceans and/or loses circulation that may apply here...I mentioned it a while back. The surface reflection dissipated, therefore the same name would not be the correct choice...

Let it happen, let it happen...

[Aquawind]

I hear ya SF!! Excellent Point!