6pm CDT Ivan discussion

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2300Z 26.9N 89.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 27.5N 91.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 93.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 95.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[Hyperstorm]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION.

I find these 2 sentences completely contradictory to each other.

The best that I can tell, the surface system did not exist when it exited the coast, only the UL energy. As it moved around the high pressure system and moved into the Gulf of Mexico a surface circulation developed, which is what Avila is mentioning in the second sentence and I agree with.

Whatever the name is we sure do have a developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf...

[SouthernWx]

Darn it, I just love those "animated, in house discussions"....bet it was a doozy

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION.

I find these 2 sentences completely contradictory to each other.

The best that I can tell, the surface system did not exist when it exited the coast, only the UL energy. As it moved around the high pressure system and moved into the Gulf of Mexico a surface circulation developed, which is what Avila is mentioning in the second sentence and I agree with.

Whatever the name is we sure do have a developing tropical cyclone in the Gulf...

If it didn't have a center and then re-developed near Florida, it's not Ivan. Period.

Now... if it KEPT the center(or the center reformed without the other one going away), then it's Ivan.

[Stormsfury]

Darn it, I just love those "animated, in house discussions"....bet it was a doozy

NHC with a WWBB like atmosphere ... whoa ...

[ameriwx2003]

Perry.. yea.. I wish I could have been a fly on the wall to hear there animated discussion about calling this Ivan:):).. J.B. will be happy:):) lol

[yoda]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

I reallly wonder what the animated discussions were like...

[Hyperstorm]

If it didn't have a center and then re-developed near Florida, it's not Ivan. Period.

Now... if it KEPT the center(or the center reformed without the other one going away), then it's Ivan.

Which is exactly what I'm saying...

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

I reallly wonder what the animated discussions were like...

fight?

Avila vs. Stewart, LOL!!!

[yoda]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

I reallly wonder what the animated discussions were like...

fight?

Avila vs. Stewart, LOL!!!

Now THAT would be interesting...

[Stormsfury]

Well it's like watching the ol' Miller Lite commercials ...

LESS FILLING, TASTES GREAT ...

[wabbitoid]

I think what probably happened was that people like us were already calling it Ivan (or Ivanito) and they thought it would be more confusing to assign it a new one.

[Ixolib]

Well, if their discussions were anything like some of the discussion in here, they really were DOOZYS!!

[Windy]

I SAID IVAN!! Stewart? Stewart, are you okay? Stewart?

[Brent]

I SAID IVAN!! Stewart? Stewart, are you okay? Stewart?

[WeatherNLU]

I would have loved to have been a fly on that wall.

[Hou~TX~Mama]

Something even funnier.
Clicking on the track of TD9 (Ivan) on weather.com takes you to the OLD track of Ivan, but with today's date on it, with the big "L" in the gulf.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm9/index_large.html