How reliable is NOGAPS?

[chigger11]

I see that NOGAPS has it coming into Port St. Lucie area like Frances. How reliable is this model at this stage of the game? The other models appear to be fairly consistently east of NOGAPS. Any opinions?

[djti]

nogaps is really awful.......caused alot of the alarm in new orleans with ivan........

[PurdueWx80]

Yes, people went around NO flailing their arms...OMG OMG...The Navy's forecast model....OMG OMG we're gonna die.

[djti]

no...the nola mediamets did that USING the navys forecast model....and then through in some spicy doomsday theories to boot.

[PurdueWx80]

LOL...sorry, I couldn't resist. While it was too far west in the end w/ Ivan-round 1, it was a lot closer w/ the central Gulf Coast hit much earlier in the game than the consensus and NHC.

[buckma78]

IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND
THE GFDN ACTUALLY ELONGATE THE RIDGE MORE EAST-WEST THAN MOVING IT
EASTWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72-96 HOURS...BEFORE IT RECURVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL
MOVES JEANNE INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIMILAR TO THE
TRACK OF FRANCES. WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JEANNE REMAINING
OFFSHORE THE U.S. COAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.


They haven't completely discarded the NOGAPS. It will be interesting to see if the other models continue to shift farther west. Only time will tell.

[Bane]

They defintely don't think it will make landfall in Florida at this time, though.

[rainstorm]

compared to most of the models taking frances into sc at one time, and ivan into the east coast of fla, nogaps has been quite good this season. also, the high seems rather strong now, and the models have been underdoing ridging all season

[HurricaneQueen]

Definitely??? Where did you hear anyone say that? I hope "they" are right but that would be irresponsible to say at this point.

Jeanne has done enough damage and taken way too many lives. I'd much prefer to see her make one big circle out to sea and dissipate.

[rainstorm]

me too

[caneman]

nogaps is really awful.......caused alot of the alarm in new orleans with ivan........

Echo what Purdue said. NOGAPS was tuned into this area well befoe some of the others. Not sure where you're getting your info. To assert they were awful is simply not true.

[caneman]

They defintely don't think it will make landfall in Florida at this time, though.

I must have missed that part.

[orion]

Here is an interesting graphic comparing the performance of the various models (NOGAPS, LBAR, UKMET, GFDL, GUNS, GUNA, GFS, and the NHC Official Model) for the Atlantic 2003 season:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/nwpmode ... l2003b.gif

And here it is for the 2002 season:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/ssd/nwpmode ... l2002b.gif

~Jeff

[Anonymous]

Local mets here saying it will pass 300 miles away--but close enough looks like for some good waves

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/tops ... ryid=24021

Another storm making loops is hurricane Jeanne with 100 mph winds. It is about 830 miles from Jacksonville and is on the same latitude as West Palm Beach. The forecast track has shifted west closer to the First Coast. By the weekend Jeanne will be at its closest approach to our coast. It is forecast to come 300 miles from shore. Now hurricane winds extend out to 45 miles with tropical storm winds out to 140. On this track we would only expect to see breezy weather with gusts up to 30-35 mph. But our entire area could be affected greater if the track continues to shift west. Certainly watch the future forecast with Jeanne.

[caneman]

Local mets here saying it will pass 300 miles away--but close enough looks like for some good waves

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/tops ... ryid=24021

Another storm making loops is hurricane Jeanne with 100 mph winds. It is about 830 miles from Jacksonville and is on the same latitude as West Palm Beach. The forecast track has shifted west closer to the First Coast. By the weekend Jeanne will be at its closest approach to our coast. It is forecast to come 300 miles from shore. Now hurricane winds extend out to 45 miles with tropical storm winds out to 140. On this track we would only expect to see breezy weather with gusts up to 30-35 mph. But our entire area could be affected greater if the track continues to shift west. Certainly watch the future forecast with Jeanne.

I'm not a rocket scientist my friend but this hardly looks like 300 miles.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2118W5.gif

[Guest]

I'm sure which ever model points at florida is the best model. Good luck with jeanne.

[MWatkins]

Doesnt matter how reliable the model is overall if the other models are following the trend. NOGAPS handled Frances pretty well...each storm is different. The key concern is the all of the models are contuning westward...don't key on this one model.

MW

[TampaFl]

Agree, closer than 300 miles. NWS AFD Melbourne this afternnon states


FXUS62 KMLB 221917
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

...HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS FLORIDA...

...AUTUMNAL EQUINOX OCCURRED (FALL BEGAN) AT 1230 PM TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE LATE FALL WITH BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND SUBTLE COLD ADVECTION PRODUCING AREAS OF MARINE STRATOCU
AND SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK PVA WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
FLAT STRATOCU TOWARDS MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR BRIEF
SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-FRI...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STRONG 1025MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH
APPROACHING HURRICANE JEANNE WILL KEEP CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A NE FLOW
PATTERN THU...BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY FRI WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED. DRIER AND MORE STABLE EAST NORTHEASTLY FLOW WILL KEEP POPS
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED COASTAL CHANCE GIVEN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SAT-NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS JEANNE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO
THE FL EAST COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWARD
WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE LEFT (OR WEST) OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH TURN JEANNE
NORTHWARD FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT JEANNE
WILL TURN TOWARD FL TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND CURVE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. AT EXACTLY WHAT DISTANCE
FROM THE FL EAST COAST WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OUR WINDS AND RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY
WINDS ESP ALG THE COAST AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE. WILL LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
TEMPORARILY DISPLACED FROM THE STATE. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE ESP ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OFFSHORE
FLOW THAT WILL AT LEAST DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK...POPS AND DIURNAL TEMPS APPEAR TO RETURN TO MORE OF A
CLIMO REGIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 87 72 85 / 10 20 10 20
MCO 72 89 71 87 / 0 20 10 20
MLB 75 87 73 86 / 20 20 20 20
VRB 76 87 73 86 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...RIVER FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HIRSCH
LONG TERM...KELLY/MOSELY

[Aslkahuna]

NOGAPS was the first (and for a while the ONLY) model that suggested that Javier's remnants would come into AZ-this 6 days out and when the GFS didn't even HAVE the Cat 4 hurricane at all. Even the vaunted ECMWF fell flat with Javier it was the UKMET and the Candian models that followed NOGAPS' lead with the Canadian being the first one to indicate a significant rain event for SE AZ. Last Spring the NOGAPS and the ECMWF were the only models that handled the early stages of the April cutoff properly.

Steve

[Wacahootaman]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

This looks bad for Fla