TROPICAL STORM IVAN!
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Ivanova
Quote:
"I have no changes on Ivan. The ackowledgement by both TPC and the
Navy Research Lab as to what this system is certainly was welcomed
for me as it justifies my argument. And it is important, not for my
own selfish interest, but because if it can come back, it simply adds
to the history of what is arguably one of the five most impressive
storms of the century. In addition, with Lisa and Karl on the charts,
and a strong system behind Lisa, there is a chance that five storms
are on the charts at once Thursday morning.
The "danger" with Ivan is the endgame, as that is when the upper
pattern becomes favorable for rapid development as it nears the
coast. The system gets into the area of warmest water, which is 85-88
F and at the perfect side of the upper high with the upper low
backing rapidly away. I like the idea of a 50- to 60-knot tropical
storm near 27.5 and 95 by Thursday morning, and then a move inland
Thursday night or Friday, perhaps followed by a turn southwest as the
big high over northwest Texas builds. So let's just keep it as it is
now, and understand that intensity is the compromise between the
system being no stronger than it is now and something that could blow
up to a hurricane as it's coming ashore. The message here is be aware
of the endgame here; it is a very tricky look."
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... ree_column
*
"I have no changes on Ivan. The ackowledgement by both TPC and the
Navy Research Lab as to what this system is certainly was welcomed
for me as it justifies my argument. And it is important, not for my
own selfish interest, but because if it can come back, it simply adds
to the history of what is arguably one of the five most impressive
storms of the century. In addition, with Lisa and Karl on the charts,
and a strong system behind Lisa, there is a chance that five storms
are on the charts at once Thursday morning.
The "danger" with Ivan is the endgame, as that is when the upper
pattern becomes favorable for rapid development as it nears the
coast. The system gets into the area of warmest water, which is 85-88
F and at the perfect side of the upper high with the upper low
backing rapidly away. I like the idea of a 50- to 60-knot tropical
storm near 27.5 and 95 by Thursday morning, and then a move inland
Thursday night or Friday, perhaps followed by a turn southwest as the
big high over northwest Texas builds. So let's just keep it as it is
now, and understand that intensity is the compromise between the
system being no stronger than it is now and something that could blow
up to a hurricane as it's coming ashore. The message here is be aware
of the endgame here; it is a very tricky look."
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/publ ... ree_column
*
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