New Models looking more like FL hit

yoda wrote:
Scorpion wrote:GFS and NOGAPS have it right over my house .

While the ECMWF, UKMET, GFDL, LBAR, and others have it in the Carolinas...

Its going to be a long few days coming up...

Won't be that long. GFDL is riding it right on the East Coast of FLorida. Discount LBAR, That leaves ECMWF and UKMET. Nogaps tp Florida too. We're at 72 hours out. And then you have trend.

#8 Postby **SeaBrz_FL** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:05 pm

Does the body have an unlimited supply of adrenalin or is there a vitamin, mineral or food source that replenishes it?

#9 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:08 pm

hurricanedude wrote:the wunderground models are most current!

whats the difference??

#10 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:09 pm

The Bam seems irrelevant but at this rate this thing is likely to hit Mexico! I wonder if at this time tommorow they will tighten up on Florida or move further West?

Ixolib · #11 Postby **Ixolib** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:09 pm

But.... What is the synoptic pattern that's causing the trend. Sanibel??

jagesq · #12 Postby **jagesq** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:10 pm

i don't think it is gonna make it to Florida, it looks like its gonna head west straight at us and give us a scare, but I'm inclined to trust the NHC right now in that it will turn North before making Florida. But, NHC and for that matter, nobody has been right on this thing so far, and she is ultimately gonna do whatever she wants.

hurricanedude · #13 Postby **hurricanedude** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:11 pm

its not a matter of trust...the NHC admits this forecast is given with LOW CONFIDENCE!

#14 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:12 pm

yea...the 4th and 5th day are always iffy!

Hyperstorm · #15 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:15 pm

They will probably extend the cone of uncertainty and track at 11 a little westward to account for the model updates. However, I don't expect them to have the forecast point over land in Florida until they're sure about it...

#16 Postby **SeaBrz_FL** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:15 pm

don't think it is gonna make it to Florida, it looks like its gonna head west straight at us and give us a scare

You have not listed your location -- are you on the coast? Would like to have an offline chat with FL E Coasters since the press seems to be in denial too.

Ixolib · #17 Postby **Ixolib** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:18 pm

SeaBrz_FL wrote:
don't think it is gonna make it to Florida, it looks like its gonna head west straight at us and give us a scare

You have not listed your location -- are you on the coast? Would like to have an offline chat with FL E Coasters since the press seems to be in denial too.

SeaBrz - If I was in your shoes, I'd be understandibly watching every jog, jump, step, and turn with great interest. Regardless of who's in denial!!

MetroMike · #18 Postby **MetroMike** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:19 pm

Well I can't see them pointing it to Carolinas either given these model either. Why scare them more?

#19 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:24 pm

I remember the models a week ago predicting a Carolina event for last Tuesday. And this past Tuesday, and now this upcoming Tuesday. I don't suppose Jeanne would just wait around for another few weeks... like maybe December or so?

#20 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 9:29 pm

Well, it does appear that the models are converging on the Florida Northeast Cost.

That would complete the attack on Florida:

Charley - Southwest landfall
Frances - Southeast landfall
Ivan - Northwest landfall
Jeanne - * Northeast landfall

* speculative

New Models looking more like FL hit

New Models looking more like FL hit

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