10pm Ivan-40 mph winds, 1007 mb pressure

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

...TROPICAL STORM IVAN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN
SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE... WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 90.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KNOTS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IVAN. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
IVAN COULD RELAX SOME...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND THE CENTER
SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE REMNANT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 27.4N 90.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 28.4N 91.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 29.5N 94.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

[dhweather]

DISSAPATION? HA!!!!!

[DaylilyDawn]

This is one storm that doesn't know when to quit.