For the sake of continuity?

[CDO]

Just read Avila's 11PM discussion. Again, for the sake of continuity?!?!?

[dixiebreeze]

What on earth is THAT supposed to mean??

[FLLuckyAgain]

What on earth is THAT supposed to mean??

Means he did not want to over shift..and scare FL...Just to have models flip back east in the morn..

[dixiebreeze]

I don't think Floridians are scared anymore, we're resigned.

[CDO]

It's almost unreal. Based on his continuity argument, the forecast path should still point NE, in continuity with yesterday's forecast.

[DelrayMorris]

That has got to be one of the most bizarre arguments I've seen in a while. "For the sake of continuity"?

I guess he didn't want to freak us out, but quite frankly, I'm just at the point where I'm resigned to my fate. There was nothing I could do to turn Frances and there is nothing I can do to turn Jeanne. I did nothing to turn Ivan. He did it on his own. All I can do is prepare and THAT I know how to do now.

[BillC]

I would understand the TPC's continuity argument IF the only continuity today had not been a constant trending west by the forecast models. As Sophocles wrote in Antigone: "It is a good man who yields when he knows his course is wrong and repairs the evil. The only crime is pride."

[Derek Ortt]

this is extremely common and is a responsible way to forecast when the storm is more than 3 days away from a possible landfall

[MGC]

Here is what Avila probably meant: Continuity: "the property characteristic of a continuous function" the continuous function is the landfalling of hurricanes in Florida......MGC

[lapeym]

They had the same "continuity" argument for Ivan a week ago. The models were shifted towards LA/MS, but they only moved the strike to AL/Pensacola for the sake of "continuity". They were picking Panama City before that. If you think about it, doesn't it make sense to see if the models "verify", i.e. maintain the same direction path over one run before you scream chicken little and move the projected paths all over the place. The storm is still 3 days away--people in Fla should be preparing no matter what.

[jabber]

I do not think they like to jump to much between advisories. Also look who wrote this. He is usually the first to write off storms…. That’s what really scares me.

[caneman]

Here is what Avila probably meant: Continuity: "the property characteristic of a continuous function" the continuous function is the landfalling of hurricanes in Florida......MGC

LOL- At least we had a break last weekend. First one in the last 4 to 5 weeks. COuld be another busy weekend.

[jagesq]

Agreed, if you whift the forecast track with every model run, you're gonna end up having huge swings in the projected path and thus scare a lot of people. I agree with Orrt, this is a more responiblew way of forecasting.

[PurdueWx80]

They aren't going to suddenly shift their forecast markedly left when landfall is 3+ days away. The track is close enough to FL and well within the error bars (we should all know by now a FL hit is possible if they are within this "cone"). There is no reason to shift just because one run of models suddenly makes a change. If the change continues at 00Z and 06Z, then you can guarantee they'll have her going into FL.

[caneman]

Agreed, if you whift the forecast track with every model run, you're gonna end up having huge swings in the projected path and thus scare a lot of people. I agree with Orrt, this is a more responiblew way of forecasting.

Well, if it stays this way, they'll have to show it at 5AM.

[sponger]

I know what you mean caneman. Last weekend I sat on my butt and drank beer and watched football. It was ever thing I thought it could be. After a week with out power and the next weekend spent doing Laundry and cleaning It felt great. I am so glad I enjoyed a weekend for once. We are ready!

[jagesq]

Yea I agree completely, if these model runs start to verify and she continues to track west and even a bit south, they will shift the path at 5, but at least now, people can get a good nights sleep. Its not like anyone is gonna go out and put the plywood up tonight anyways.

[CDO]

I guess it boils down to what a forecast actually is. Is it the forecasters best scientific guess as to where the storm will be at appointed times, or is a somewhat subjective generalization of a storm's path? Granted, I realize the media are hysteria raisers, but I really think the forecast should be a solely scientific statement.

[TropicalJen]

Here is what Avila probably meant: Continuity: "the property characteristic of a continuous function" the continuous function is the landfalling of hurricanes in Florida......MGC

LOL- At least we had a break last weekend. First one in the last 4 to 5 weeks. COuld be another busy weekend.

Every other weekend has some sort of threat! LOL, as long as people are prepared and cautious, we should fare fine, well here in St. Pete, I am only concerned that all the preparing and missing that people will get too complacent and not get out in the event of an actual hit.

[T'Bonz]

"Continuity?"

Who cares about that? Just tell me where the damn thing is coming.

I sealed our fate in Ft. L/Miami. I bought Steeler-Dophin tickets (I'm a Steelers fan) for Sunday.

Shoulda knowed better! :p