Ivan's landfall this time around?

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GalvestonDuck
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Ivan's landfall this time around?

#1 Postby GalvestonDuck » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:00 pm

Approximately 24 hours out, anyone care to make any forecasts or guesses?

Considering how often the true track has gone to the southern and/or western edge of the forecast cone, it'd be almost silly for me to agree with it and say "Galveston" because you know that'd be -removed-. Honestly, I'm not certain where I think landfall will be. All I know is I'm gonna be living up to my screenname this weekend. :)
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Re: Ivan's landfall this time around?

#2 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:04 pm

GalvestonDuck wrote:Approximately 24 hours out, anyone care to make any forecasts or guesses?

Considering how often the true track has gone to the southern and/or western edge of the forecast cone, it'd be almost silly for me to agree with it and say "Galveston" because you know that'd be -removed-. Honestly, I'm not certain where I think landfall will be. All I know is I'm gonna be living up to my screenname this weekend. :)


SW LA.
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#3 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:04 pm

Between Galveston and the Louisiana border.
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#4 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:05 pm

east end Galveston....
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#5 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:09 pm

Surfside Beach (Freeport, TX)
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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#6 Postby Ivanova » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:10 pm

Both of Dubya's palaces will have been affected...
coming and going :cool:



*
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Re: Ivan's landfall this time around?

#7 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:12 pm

GalvestonDuck wrote:Approximately 24 hours out, anyone care to make any forecasts or guesses?

Considering how often the true track has gone to the southern and/or western edge of the forecast cone, it'd be almost silly for me to agree with it and say "Galveston" because you know that'd be -removed-. Honestly, I'm not certain where I think landfall will be. All I know is I'm gonna be living up to my screenname this weekend. :)


looks like we completely covered the entire warning area..... :lol:
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#8 Postby stormcloud » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:15 pm

Yep, I'm glad it was narrowed down! :D
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#9 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:17 pm

Easy on Surfside Beach...What little is left of our beach cannot take anymore.....Just a matter of time before certain sections of Bluewater Hwy will be gone.....May not be this storm....
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#10 Postby mobilebay » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:20 pm

Actually every GOM storm/Hurricane this season has made landfall EAST of the NHC, and model concensus prediction. Bonnie, Charlie(Southeast), Frances, and IVan (only about 50 miles East) made landfall East of the prediction. Judging from the only two Vortex fixes, it was moving more NW than WNW at that time. So in closing I will predict a Central LA. Landfall.
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#11 Postby southerngale » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:24 pm

It's almost south of central Louisiana now. I think it would have to suddenly turn NNW to make it to central La.
SW La. seems quite possible though.
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#12 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:25 pm

Local met here expects landfall between High Island and Sabine Pass. Getting some rather gusty winds at the moment here in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana.
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#13 Postby GalvestonDuck » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:27 pm

ROCK wrote:east end Galveston....



Grrrrr!
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#14 Postby GalvestonDuck » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:28 pm

Ivanova wrote:Both of Dubya's palaces will have been affected...
coming and going :cool:



*


:roll: Take it to the political board.
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#15 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:28 pm

southerngale wrote:It's almost south of central Louisiana now. I think it would have to suddenly turn NNW to make it to central La.
SW La. seems quite possible though.


remember the shear makes it look like its tracking NW since all the convection is to the N and NE..interesting to see the 1am Adv. but IM not staying up that late....
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#16 Postby mobilebay » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:32 pm

southerngale wrote:It's almost south of central Louisiana now. I think it would have to suddenly turn NNW to make it to central La.
SW La. seems quite possible though.

Not trying to be a smart@ss but 90W is hardly Central LA. Thats Southeast LA.
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#17 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:33 pm

I'm not staying up that late either, but I will be up early to check on it. Wondering about my drive to work in the morning - could be a bit rough as it is already very breezy here at the moment. Oh well, bring on some rain.
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#18 Postby WeatherNLU » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:36 pm

mobilebay wrote:
southerngale wrote:It's almost south of central Louisiana now. I think it would have to suddenly turn NNW to make it to central La.
SW La. seems quite possible though.

Not trying to be a smart@ss but 90W is hardly Central LA. Thats Southeast LA.


Glad someone said it. :)

90.0W is due south of downtown New Orleans.
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#19 Postby BayouVenteux » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:36 pm

mobilebay wrote:
southerngale wrote:It's almost south of central Louisiana now. I think it would have to suddenly turn NNW to make it to central La.
SW La. seems quite possible though.

Not trying to be a smart@ss but 90W is hardly Central LA. Thats Southeast LA.
A friendly FYI...the "central" coastal region of south Louisiana is generally considered to be the area from Morgan City to approximately the New Iberia-Abbeville area.
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#20 Postby mobilebay » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:43 pm

Now that we have a debate on where Central LA. is, let me clarify my prediction. I think it will hit on the Louisiana Coast around 91.5 to 92.0.
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