Lisa will remain as Lisa?

[dhweather]

ABNT20 KNHC 230231
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
JEANNE...LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES EAST OT THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
..ON HURRICANE KARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1280 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
WESTERNMOST AZORES...ON TROPICAL STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 1165
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND BEGAN ISSUING ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM IVAN IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS GRADUALLY
MERGING WITH TROPICAL STORM LISA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON IVAN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4 AND FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

First, they name GOM disturbance related to Iván, Iván, and now little, puny Lisa is absorving a much bigger system. Finally, I came to the desicion that Osama is a good guy after all.

[Brent]

This doesn't make sense either... UGH

[DAVE440]

I agree. We were told (and as should be the case) the disturbance that was only a piece of energy from Ivan would NOT be called Ivan and would in fact be given a new name if it developed. Even the local forecasters here were saying that. Now Lisa merging...?

It's really a non-sequitor in the long run....as any name a storm takes on is capable of damage but....just seems odd...this name game the NHC is playing.

The name game...Jeanne Jeanne looks mean ...bonana fanna fo feen me mi mo mean.... Jeanne..... LOL!!! ~~~~~~

[Guest]

Alright guys ease up some on NHC. I for one am getting tired of all this NHC bashing.

[southerngale]

So am I KOW. Want to bash the NHC? Do it elsewhere. We have members here from the NWS and I am certain they don't want to come here and see all the disrespect shown for their fellow mets. The lack of respect is disgusting at times. Disagreeing is fine, just do it with respect.

[abajan]

Why not call that "thing" in the Atlantic Lisa Lisa & Cult Jam? After all, it was once 2 systems (Lisa Lisa) and now it's all jammed into one!

[bigmike]

The problem with all the nhc bashing is that we have so called "experts" who may have taken a course in meterology but are in truth armchair specialists. We do have some very good forecasters in here like derecho and ott and others but I tend to put a little more trust in people like Maxi Avelia and Stacy Stewart at NHC which have been doing this a little bit longer than most of us

[HurryKane]

Why not call that "thing" in the Atlantic Lisa Lisa & Cult Jam? After all, it was once 2 systems (Lisa Lisa) and now it's all jammed into one!

With Full Force!

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/de ... ce&s=music

I'm all cried out over this season. Now I'm just plain lost in emotion from head to toe.



somebody stop me!

[Thunder44]

Lisa may have been puny in size, but she was a much more developed and stronger system than 93L and is taking over.

This is from NHC 5am discussion:

LISA IS CONTINUING TO MERGE WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD A FEW HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE STORM IS PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THIS COMBINED SYSTEM IS NOW BEING PRODUCED BY THE
CIRCULATION OF LISA... AND NOT THE DISTURBANCE. BASED ON DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. LISA'S
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED BY NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE KARL. AS
KARL MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD...ITS INFLUENCE ON LISA WILL DIMINISH.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN
WITHIN A DAY OR SO.

[lurkerinthemidst]

Maybe ( I hope NOT!) they don't want to use all the names because this has been a crazy year and they don't want top start the names over.

You know as I typed that I was really trying to make light of a situation but that is REALLY NOT funny. Man I hope that NEVER happens. Not in 2004 or any other year.

[OrlandoDad]

Anyone remember the old song from the seventies, "I'm not Lisa"? Sounds appropriate for this storm.

[clueless newbie]

Lisa may have been puny in size, but she was a much more developed and stronger system than 93L and is taking over.

Finally some voice of reason.

Lisa has taken over the moist envelope of 93L and now has the means to work its way up to major cane. In the process, she was swung south from 14N to about 12N. Let's hope the projected NW path really occurs, otherwise the islands will be in trouble.

[GOMer]

I think we should ease off the NHC - from what I have heard, there are forecasters there who have been working 16 hours a day, every day, for over a month

[clueless newbie]

I think we should ease off the NHC - from what I have heard, there are forecasters there who have been working 16 hours a day, every day, for over a month

And they have been RIGHT on with Lisa, unlike some NHC bashers in this thread.

[Hyperstorm]

Lisa may have been puny in size, but she was a much more developed and stronger system than 93L and is taking over.

Finally some voice of reason.

Lisa has taken over the moist envelope of 93L and now has the means to work its way up to major cane. In the process, she was swung south from 14N to about 12N. Let's hope the projected NW path really occurs, otherwise the islands will be in trouble.

I must clarify that the original statement is not necessarily correct.

In the 1970s, there was a small, but strong typhoon in the W. Pacific that was interacting with a very large, but disorganized system circulation to the east. Well, the larger system absorbed the more organized small system.

It has to do more with size and not intensity.

Lisa was stronger, but smaller than 93L. Therefore, 93L likely absorbed Lisa...

[clueless newbie]

Lisa may have been puny in size, but she was a much more developed and stronger system than 93L and is taking over.

Finally some voice of reason.

Lisa has taken over the moist envelope of 93L and now has the means to work its way up to major cane. In the process, she was swung south from 14N to about 12N. Let's hope the projected NW path really occurs, otherwise the islands will be in trouble.

I must clarify that the original statement is incorrect.

In the 1970s I believe it was, there was a small, but strong typhoon in the W. Pacific that was interacting with a very large, but disorganized system to the east. Well, the larger system absorbed the more organized small system. It has more to do with size and not necessarily intensity.

Lisa was stronger, but smaller than 93L. Therefore, 93L absorbed Lisa and there should've been a name change.

It won't happen, though...

It depends on how you define 'absorbed'.

The fact is that it is Lisa's circulation that has maintaned continuity and is firing up the convection, not 93L's. Yes, Lisa is now embedded in the envelope that was formerly 93L, but I would not call it 'absorbed' - that would for me imply that Lisa circulation has been lost and its most envelope has been added to the envelope of 93L. That has certainly not occured.

The most important feature of a TC is its circulation, that's why I am putting more weight it in then in the envelope size.

[Hyperstorm]

Lisa's moisture source wasn't coming from its own circulation, instead, 93L aided in the convective development over the circulation. Last night, I think I saw the circulation of Lisa become ill-defined and it looked like the eastern disturbance's circulation (which was much broader) was merging.

I agree that if the LLC becomes so poorly defined that is encompassed by a new and larger circulation then you can call that absorbtion and new development has taken place.

This is what I think has happened...