NOGAPS...Even Further South and West

[MWatkins]

The 00Z GFS is almost a carbon copy of the 18Z guidance in terms of the steering features and only has a very very subtle change in initial motion through 48 hours which ultimately turns Jeanne JUST in front of FL.

However...once again the NOGAP model...which has handled the Atlantic ridge well this season...is south and west of the previous run and once again suggests a significant FL threat:



Not unexpected...but disconcerting.

MW

[PurdueWx80]

Yeah, I noticed the 00Z GFS pulls the coast hugging option again. It's hard to tell, but it does seem close enough at 84 hours to call it a landfall...almost on top of Frances'. The NOGAPS also takes her into the GOM now as well.

[MWatkins]

Yeah, I noticed the 00Z GFS pulls the coast hugging option again. It's hard to tell, but it does seem close enough at 84 hours to call it a landfall...almost on top of Frances'.

Jut had a half-serious thought...I'm going to go back and cut and paste my comments from 3 weeks ago and see how that analysis holds up. Seems like de-ja-vu all over again huh?

MW

[mobilebay]

Yea Mike, I think the UKMET will play a huge role on the NHC track at 5Am. If it shifts to agree with this new scenerio they will have to shift also. Although Gradually I'm sure.

[chris_fit]

When do the other models come out?

[yoda]

Well the GFS should be out... the GFDL I think is out...

UKMET I am not sure...

ECMWF comes out in about 2-3 hours (usually around 3 AM)

[mobilebay]

When do the other models come out?

The UKMET is available usually around 2AM EDT. THe Euro around 3AM. The GFDL and BAMM should not change that much based on the 00Z GFS output.

[PurdueWx80]

When do the other models come out?

About the only two 00Z's not out now are the Euro and UKMET...Euro comes in just before 3 a.m. EDT and the UK should be within the next hour or two. The 06z NHC models will take another 1-1.5 hours. Pretty much everything so far tonight says FL is in for another hurricane.

[Thunder44]

The 0z Ukmet is already out. Keeps it off Florida and takes it to the NC coast.


http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

[PurdueWx80]

That's the 12Z...the first panel is a 12 hour forecast...so it is valid at 00Z. You almost got me though!

[mobilebay]

The 0z Ukmet is already out. Keeps it off Florida and takes it to the NC coast.


http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

I may be wrong but I believe that is the 12Z run. If that is the 00Z run it is almost idetical to the 12Z.

[Thunder44]

I don't understand. The date on the first map on the bottom says Thurs Sept. 23 00:00:00 2004 and then goes on every 12 hours from there until the last tree maps are every 24 hours. Does that mean it's tonight's run?

[PurdueWx80]

The upper part of the map says 12, the next panel says 24....and so on from there. Now, look just below the "valid at" part at the bottom...it says 12Z, meaning it is the 12Z run from this morning. 12 hours from 12Z this morning is 00Z tonight, which is what the first panel shows. Some of the maps on the UQAM site do start at the initialization, but the UKMET does not.

[Thunder44]

The upper part of the map says 12, the next panel says 24....and so on from there. Now, look just below the "valid at" part at the bottom...it says 12Z, meaning it is the 12Z run from this morning. 12 hours from 12Z this morning is 00Z tonight, which is what the first panel shows. Some of the maps on the UQAM site do start at the initialization, but the UKMET does not.

Ok, thanks, I think I understand now.