? for Mike Watkins

jjfl · #1 Postby **jjfl** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:43 pm

I have been watching your forcasts throughout the seanson, and they seem to be very good. In your opinion why did NHC not bring the 11:00 forcast in agreement with what seems to be the model consensus? It seems to me that in doing this the way they did they will make people panic even more tomorrow morning when they wake up and find south or central Florida right in the bulls eye??? Maybe I am wrong here, but it seems possible that we could have a major hurricane on our doorstep in 3 days...

#2 Postby **ericinmia** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:46 pm

one word....

AVILA

ENOUGH SAID!

jjfl · #3 Postby **jjfl** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:50 pm

AVILA...

Does the NHC look back at forcast accuracy and see how often this guy has been wrong??? I am a big supporter of the NHC I think they have done a very good job this season, However every time I see his name at the bottom of the forcast I want to question it... Stewart's discussion seem to make the most sense. They have all the technical information that you smart guys are looking for, however us normal people can still make sense out of where he is going.

#4 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:51 pm

jjfl wrote:I have been watching your forcasts throughout the seanson, and they seem to be very good. In your opinion why did NHC not bring the 11:00 forcast in agreement with what seems to be the model consensus? It seems to me that in doing this the way they did they will make people panic even more tomorrow morning when they wake up and find south or central Florida right in the bulls eye??? Maybe I am wrong here, but it seems possible that we could have a major hurricane on our doorstep in 3 days...

I think there are 2 main reasons for that.

1. The NHC believes in not windshield-wiping their forecasts. They will make course adjustments over the span of 2 or 3 forecasts and not jump them around.

2. They usually wait for the 00Z guidance...with all the new observations...to make significant shifts in track. Now that the 18Z is in line with the 0Z GFS they will like go ahead and make a leftward adjustment in 4 hours or so.

3. If they go any further left with the track it will suggest a threat to a specific community...and it is too early to do that just yet.

I guess that's three points....thanks for asking and I hope this helps.

MW

Stratosphere747 · #5 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:51 pm

I used to think Avila was being slapped around by Stewert...But now I think it is the other way around..

.....Avila has in my view become much better in how he words the forecasts...Read his discussion again...He wanted to bring the track more westerly but is trying not to make this dramatic shift...There is plenty of time to shift it more to the west and south if need be...

SwampDawg · #6 Postby **SwampDawg** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:53 pm

I would say when it comes down to it, the NHC is very accurate when it counts.

jjfl · #7 Postby **jjfl** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 11:56 pm

Mike...

Thanks for the reply...You make good points. I also read you reply about getting prepared. Am I to assume that you feel fairly strongly that we may be dealing with this this weekend??? I live in Jupiter, and life is just starting to get back to normal. I am in the marine industry, and things had been very slow for a couple of weeks, but really seemed to turn the corner this week. Another storm, and we go back to no work for a while. I think people were more concerned with home repairs and things of that sort rather than fixing the boat.

KeyLargoDave · #8 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:02 am

"...they will make people panic even more tomorrow morning when they wake up and find south or central Florida right in the bulls eye???"

Believe me, the people of Florida watched their local weather before they went to bed tonight, and have heard lots about where this might go. And the ones who didn't are also not going to wake up and head straight to the TPC site and look at the forecast track.

And as far as I can tell, "people" in Florida have never "panicked" over any storm, even Cat 5's heading right at them. I'm starting to wonder about the motivation behind all these posts about "this will cause panic.." and "they're waiting because then everyone will panic..."

Let me assure you, the Jeanne track will cause dismay, disappointment, despair, and, yes, even some disinterest -- not panic.

jjfl · #9 Postby **jjfl** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:07 am

I am assuming that you live in Key Largo based on you screen name. I just happened to be in Home Depot, Lowes, and Costco 2 days before Francis payed us a visit (buying material for work) . Every store had over 100 people waiting in line to buy the possible 25 generators that might be coming on a truck later in the day. Every store was completly out of ice, and food and non perishables were very hard to come by. I have lived in Florida all of my 28 years, and I have never seen people react to storms like they have this year.

KeyLargoDave · #10 Postby **KeyLargoDave** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:17 am

Yeah," react." Not panic. Also, a lot of people get whatever they need without going to giant retailers. Giant retailers draw giant crowds.

I'm sure there will be reaction and crowds if the track keeps pointing at Florida. I just react badly to the "everyone's going to panic" suggestions.

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