why the nw jog in the new ukmet...?

[ericinmia]

Once again we have some wonderful model output.
The ukmet is showing that after this sw motion ceases, that a nw motion will occur negating the sw jog jeanne took. Then the model heads jean westward. I don't see any reason synoptically for this NW jog to occur. That causes me to doubt a good deal of the ukmets solution.

What i think is occuring in the ukmet.

1. It understands that the high is ridging deep enough that Jeanne is being forced sw still.

2. It however believes that Jeanne can only progress westward under the guidance of the high, at a higher latitude. Thus, it moves her nw to this point before resuming the westawrd movement.

Obviously the ukmet is still underestimating the ridge to some degree or another. I suppose in the morning and throughout tomorrow we shall see how poorly these models have developed and depicted that ridge.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... .track.png

Jeanne still headed sw-wsw
-Eric

[yoda]

Yes. I must agree. Why is there a NW jog? Synoptic reasoning would suggest a continued west jog, no?

[Javlin]

Yea I would agree and I am maybe wrong but the ridge is beginning to look thin to the N of Jeanne.Thus a breakdown might occur the last couple of loops before the eclipise Jeanne slowed the SW movement in correlation to the thinning of the ridge.Just an ob.