Center of Ivan

Sean in New Orleans · #1 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:38 am

I believe that the center of Ivan is now viewable on New Orleans short range radar view. Correct me if I'm wrong. Looks like the center is making a move towards Louisiana, if this is, indeed, the center of circulation. It's rather hard to see the center, tonight, on the visible satellite. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klix.shtml

Sean in New Orleans · #2 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:46 am

I believe that is the center South of Houma in the Gulf.

southerngale · #3 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:55 am

I think it's further away from the coast than that. I don't think the center is showing up on that radar.

Sean in New Orleans · #4 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:55 am

I've confirmed that this is the center of Ivan through analyzing the latest advisory on Ivan. This center is clearly moving towards the NW, maybe even NNW and could make landfall in SW Terrebonne Parish by morning. I can't see how this system goes to Texas, at all, unless we see a dramatic curve to the left.

yoda · #5 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:57 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I've confirmed that this is the center of Ivan through analyzing the latest advisory on Ivan. This center is clearly moving towards the NW, maybe even NNW and could make landfall in SW Terrebonne Parish by morning. I can't see how this system goes to Texas, at all, unless we see a dramatic curve to the left.

You mean Matthew right?

Just playin... I know its Ivan.. much to my chagrin. :grrr:

Sean in New Orleans · #6 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:57 am

southerngale wrote:I think it's further away from the coast than that. I don't think the center is showing up on that radar.

It is the center. At 1:00AM the center was located at 27.7N and 90.8W..this correlates to the present view of the center on radar.

Sean in New Orleans · #7 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:59 am

Oh, I believe it's Ivan--that's why it has the name. It's the same circulation of clouds that left the coast of Africa and did a circle in the Eastern US. It went mid-level, but, it's still the exact same clouds swirling around, hence, no name change. I agree with the assessment on the name.

yoda · #8 Postby **yoda** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:04 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:Oh, I believe it's Ivan--that's why it has the name. It's the same circulation of clouds that left the coast of Africa and did a circle in the Eastern US. It went mid-level, but, it's still the exact same clouds swirling around, hence, no name change. I agree with the assessment on the name.

Ok.. IMO its not... but lets not beat a dead horse.

southerngale · #9 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:04 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:
southerngale wrote:I think it's further away from the coast than that. I don't think the center is showing up on that radar.

It is the center. At 1:00AM the center was located at 27.7N and 90.8W..this correlates to the present view of the center on radar.

Ok. It looks like what you pointed out was too far north from what the coordinates are. I could have sworn the center was south of all the convection.

Sean in New Orleans · #10 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:07 am

southerngale wrote:I think it's further away from the coast than that. I don't think the center is showing up on that radar.

I did too---I had to really analyze it for a few minutes. When I saw it I was kinda surprised how close the center already is to the coast--but, it's definitly the center and we can watch it on close radar now..

#11 Postby **loon** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:11 am

Looks right on track with NHC 3 day, with a more westerly (WNW/NW) move coming tomorrow. Too tired to stare at radar, but if LA gets it, more power to em, its gonna be a soaker.

cheers,
the loon

9:48 · #12 Postby **9:48** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:44 am

sustained winds 44mph gusts to 52mph
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spll1
anemometer height 40 meters

9:48 · #13 Postby **9:48** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:49 am

ship report of 1005mb

Matthew5 · #14 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:51 am

Looks like up it to 40 knots at 1005 millibars.

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:53 am

Ask me and it looks to be moving more towards the west. Which if you look at the very bottom of the radar you can clearly see the little swirl and which way its moving. Not good news for those in Houston/Galvs areas.

#16 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:09 am

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... GOM_ir.jpg

Satellite back up...what a tiny storm.

Matthew5 · #17 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:12 am

Looks like its trying to fire some convection to the north of the low level cirulation.

#18 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:15 am

Yeah, the low-level center is still south of the convection...pretty much just south of the southern tip of that band.

PTrackerLA · #19 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:16 am

This is a very small storm. Looks like it could be onshore within 6-8 hours near Cameron, LA.

Matthew5 · #20 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:19 am

Looking at wind shear maps it looks to be moving from just 6 hours ago 25 knot shear. To over the next 24 hours to a area of 5 to 10 knots at most. That area of convection on the northern quad is a sign of this system, could very well be starting to pull the convection closer to the LLCC. Which the shear has blown off for the last few days. What else tells me that this system is starting to get oreganized is the ship report of 1005 millibar pressure. With 38 knots on one of the buoys/Ship reports...Also to note is the western Gulf of Mexico is more then warm enough to support a very powerful storm. So we need to keep a very close eye on our friend Ivan opps I mean Matthew!

Center of Ivan

Center of Ivan

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