NWS AFD Tampa

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 230642
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
240 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM (AGAIN)?...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SAT)...A FINE START TO AUTUMN TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS WELL AS PLEASANT MOONLIT NIGHTS. CONTINUED
FRESH NE BREEZES WILL ENHANCE THE FEELING...NOT AS GUSTY AS PREVIOUS
DAYS AS GRADIENT SLACKENS BUT ENOUGH TO TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE HEAT.
JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF PCPN FRI AFTN/EVE. SO PLEASANT...UNTIL...

SATURDAY. JEANNE...PERHAPS THE "DAUGHTER OF FRANCES"...LOOKS
LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SUNSHINE STATE (WHAT ELSE IS NEW THIS YEAR)...
AND BEGIN HER FUN AS EARLY AS THE AFTN. 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR 18Z RUNS...WITH ONLY THE GFS
EXHIBITING SOME WINDSHIELD WIPER EFFECTS (NOTE THAT THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR EACH 00Z RUN PRIOR TO FRANCES). AWAITING GFDL...BUT
UKMET...CANADIAN...JMA AND NOGAPS ALL TAKE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
PENINSULA FROM SE TO NW. ETA IS A BIT SLOWER BUT NO SURPRISE HERE AS
MODEL NOT PICKING UP THE EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM (DITTO WITH FRANCES).
EXPECT GFS TO COME BACK SOMEWHAT TO ITS 18Z SOLUTION ON THE 06Z RUN
WHICH TOOK THE SYSTEM WELL INLAND BEFORE CURVING IT N.

THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED GIVEN WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW. BEFORE THE
ECLIPSE...JEANNE HAD MADE THE SW TURN AND WATER VAPOR CLEARLY
SHOWED IMPRESSIVE (597 DM AT 500 MB) UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH EASTERLY FLOW ON ITS SOUTH SIDE ABOUT TO STEER JEANNE
TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...SHARP CUTOFF IN THE ROCKIES WAS BEING
SHUNTED NORTHWARD...A SIGN THAT THIS SPRAWLING RIDGE ISN'T ABOUT TO
LET GO ANYTIME SOON.

SO...ALL THIS SAID...EXPECT FIRST FEEDER BANDS TO SCOOT INTO OUR
EASTERN CWA PERHAPS AS SOON AS LATE MORNING SAT...WITH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY TOWARD EVENING. HAVE BUMPED PCPN CHANCES INTO
THE LIKELY RANGE E PORTION WITH A FAIRLY SHARP DROPOFF TO THE W.
AS FOR WINDS...AM SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE MARINE ZONES BUT EXPECT
MORE PULSE/GUSTINESS OVER LAND ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS. TEMPS COULD
BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS TO THOSE THE SATURDAY BEFORE
FRANCES (U80S).

WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HONE IN A BIT MORE THIS TIME FRIDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL BROAD BRUSH POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - WED)...LOTS OF CHANGES THIS MORNING AS JEANNE
CONTINUING TO TRACK A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
RESIDENTS NEED TO CONTINUE TO STAY ADVISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
FROM THE NHC AS THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BIGGEST CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER
AS JEANNE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO NUMEROUS THERE...OTHERWISE HIGH-END SCATTERED. THEN
AS JEANNE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR WILL WRAP IN OVER THE STATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US...BRINGING POPS BACK DOWN TO
SCATTERED WITH TIMING MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO BUMPED MIN
TEMPS UP AND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AS WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD


&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT CAUTION VALUES...PERHAPS NEAR SCA
AT THE OUTER WATERS...AS OF THIS WRITING. WILL HOLD SCEC FOR THE
MORNING BUT FULLY EXPECT HIGHLITES TO BE DROPPED LATER TODAY. WILL
BE AN EVENING SURGE BUT IT SHOULD JUST ONLY TWEAK 15-17 KT SO
WILL BE QUIET COMPARED TO THE RECENT THREE NIGHTS. CONDS SHOULD
STAY QUIET THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

BY SAT...HAVE EDGED WINDS TOWARD SCA AS N FLOW INCREASES WITH
JEANNE'S APPROACH FROM THE EAST. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD AS
WELL. ALL BETS ARE OFF ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY...AND WILL
DEFAULT TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE TEXT FOR
NOW.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. RH SHOULD FALL A BIT...BUT REMAIN ABOVE 40
PERCENT PRECLUDING ANY HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 090 071 089 073 / 00 00 20 20
FMY 090 070 089 073 / 00 00 20 20
GIF 089 069 089 073 / 00 00 20 20
SRQ 090 069 089 073 / 00 00 20 20
BKV 090 065 089 068 / 00 00 20 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60
NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

[abajan]

Just another major hurricane heading to Florida this year - So what's the big deal?

[TampaFl]

I think we (Florida) is making up for all those years we did not get hit!

Robert

[HurryKane]

Clearly, the DynoCrap dude has been secretly seeding these storms with iron filings and has turned on some giant electromagnet in his backyard cabana. What a drama queen he be.

[TampaFl]