Hurricane Jeanne's path shifts toward Florida

[Zadok]

Hurricane Jeanne's path shifts toward Florida

By Ken Kaye
Sun-Sentinel
Posted September 23 2004, 5:53 AM EDT

MIAMI -- Hurricane Jeanne appeared to be zeroing in on the southeast U.S. coast Thursday, with forecasts putting Florida firmly in the deadly storm's sights with landfall possible this weekend.

Still, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that Jeanne and its 100-mph top sustained winds could hit anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas. But storm-battered Florida was a more likely target than it was a day earlier, said Eric Blake, a meteorologist at the hurricane center.


``It's time for Floridians to seriously pay attention,'' Blake said.

At 5 a.m. EDT, Jeanne was centered about 475 miles east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. It was moving west near 5 mph, a speed that would bring it near Florida by Sunday. An eventual turn to the northwest was predicted, but it was unclear if that would happen before Jeanne reached Florida.

Jeanne could first pass over the northwest and central Bahamas, so those areas were under a tropical storm watch. Blake said it seemed less possible that Jeanne would curve back out to sea and avoid land.

Jeanne was blamed for more than 1,070 deaths in Haiti, where it hit over the weekend as a tropical storm and caused flooding. It moved out to sea before looping back toward land. Many Floridians hoped that they were done with hurricanes this year. Hurricanes Charley, Frances and Ivan hit the state over a span of five weeks this summer, causing billions of dollars of damage and more than 60 deaths.

Ivan's remnants reformed Wednesday into a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico and were forecast to make landfall again by early Friday in either Texas or Louisiana. As a hurricane, Ivan battered the southeast last week, killing at least 57 people before breaking apart. One of the pieces headed back across Florida into the Gulf and became a tropical storm.

At 5 a.m., Ivan had top sustained winds near 40 mph and was about 180 miles southeast of the upper Texas coast, forecasters said. Systems with top sustained winds of 39 mph to 73 mph are classified as tropical storms. Those with top sustained winds of at least 74 mph are hurricanes.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Karl stayed on an open-ocean course that only threatened ships, while Tropical Storm Lisa moved slowly far out in the Atlantic.

Karl, the seventh hurricane this season, had top sustained winds near 125 mph, up from about 110 mph a day earlier. It was expected to weaken as it moved over cooler waters. At 5 a.m., Karl was centered about 1,150 miles west-southwest of the Azores and was moving north-northeast near 23 mph.

At 5 a.m., Lisa had top sustained winds near 50 mph. The 12th named storm of the season was centered about 1,180 miles west of the Cape Verde islands and was moving west near 2 mph. Lisa was expected to turn toward the northwest, possibly following Karl's path in open seas.

The hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

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[SCHawkFan]

Jeanne's track is very much like many of the east coast hurricanes during the mid to late 90s. Moving toward Florida, but with a turn forecast. Usually you see the projected landfall point slowly move north as the storm gets closer. I would expect everyone from the middle of FL north will feel this one as it will gt very close to (or on) land before turning.

[Innotech]

uh oh....

[Anonymous]

I am not clear why so many people constantly depend on past tracks as the sole basis for their forecast on what a storm will do. though I realize there are trends or general patterns which move the atmosphere I find it not very logical to site past tracks as a point of verification of where a current storm will go. Tropical cyclones do not run down a train track as certainly this season is a good example. Perhaps this year ins't all that uncommon its just our technology now allows us to see things in the fluid atmosphere that were impossible a mere 15 yrs ago. The satellites , much more advanced computers combined with our own increase in education are now seeing things that would be impossible a decade or more past.
I believe depending and using past tracks of hurricanes is good for a general track but on a globe the size of the earth a margin of area of 300 miles is extremely small. Its easy to understand that storms move north as Coriolis Effect is now better understood, but its far to complex to say with given authority that based on previous tracks a certain storm will do the samething. Its hit or miss, & a gamble that isn't very good. There are just to many variables other than the knowledge that certain large scale patterns exist and influence tropical cyclones their is a wide margin of error still in 2004, and many past tracks out in the sea could be and many older ones are incorrect. Weather is a inexact science, & likely will be for generations so each storm be it a snow storm with a intense low moving out of the pacific NW or a Hurricane should be judged as a single event and not lumped together for exact impact based on previous occurrences.

Take Care,
Mike