Thursday Septmeber 23, 2004 5:30am
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Jeanne is a dangerous category 2 hurricane. It could get even worse...
As high pressure continues to build in, I expect Jeanne to move due west for the next 36-48 hours. After that, the anti-cyclone should elongate north-south, causing Jeanne to make a turn north. But, when is that turn north? My forecast, like the NHC's track, has a landfall on the East Coast of Florida. However, I am slightly farther south due to the fact that Jeanne has been going (To Quote a term Dr. Steve Lyons often uses) EVER SO SLIGHTLY to the south of the forecast track. Therefore, I expect a landfall in Florida, and then a landfall in South Carolina.
As for intensity, due to the lack of any true inhibiting factors, I now call for Jeanne to become a major hurricane. Now, this does not mean I expect one at landfall in Florida. However, I do expect Jeanne to become a major hurricane in 36-48 hours, and then hold status quo until landfall. Then I expect the system to weaken, but then hold status quo as it briefly moves back over water, and then into landfall in South Carolina. So a landfall in Florida at 90-100 kt, and a landfall in South Carolina at 80 kt.
NOTE: WHILE I DO HAVE JEANNE MAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN FLORIDA, ANYTHING FROM 90-110 KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
12 HRS-- 25.5 N--- 70.8 W-- 90 kt
24 HRS-- 25.5 N-- 72.2 W-- 95 kt
36 HRS-- 25.6 N-- 74.2 W-- 100 kt
48 HRS-- 25.8 N-- 77.0 W-- 100 kt
72 HRS-- 27.5 N-- 80.2 W-- 100 kt (ON COAST/INLAND)
96 HRS-- 30.8 N-- 81.2 W-- 85 kt (ON THE COAST)
120 HRS- 33.2 N-- 79.5 W-- 75 kt (INLAND)
