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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 69A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004
...IVAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA
MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N... 92.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
