5 A.M Jeanne

[stormandan28]

Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 39


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 23, 2004



at 5 am AST...0900z...a tropical storm watch is in effect for the
central Bahamas...including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long
Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador. A tropical storm watch means
that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
within 36 hr.

A Hurricane Watch may be required for the northwestern Bahamas later
today.

Interests in and near the northwest Bahamas...and on the Florida
Peninsula...should closely monitor the progress of Jeanne.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 25.5 north...longitude 69.5 west or about 475
miles... 765 km...east of great abaco island in the Bahamas.

Jeanne is moving toward the west near 3 mph... 6 km/hr. A general
westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. A slow increase in strength is possible during the next
24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb...28.53 inches.

Dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by large swells generated
by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible along the southeastern U.S.
Coast and the northwest and central Bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...25.5 N... 69.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 3 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 966 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[ericinmia]

How wonderful.

I love when they do this. They predicted her to move west. She by far is not doing that yet, but they claim for the good of their forecast that she is. If anything durring her re-organizing over the past few hours she has moved a little southerly.

*shakes head*
-Eric

[ericinmia]

Here in the discussion Beven even states its still moving at least wsw...

The initial motion is a
somewhat uncertain 260/3

so why is he calling it westward?
-Eric

Code: Select all

Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 39


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 23, 2004


 
infrared imagery since the satellite eclipse period show that cloud
tops have cooled around the eye of Jeanne...but that the eye has
become more cloud filled.  Satellite intensity estimates remain 90
kt from all agencies...so the initial intensity will remain 85 kt.
Cirrus outflow is currently good in the northwestern quadrant and
fair to poor elsewhere.
Post-eclipse images show that Jeanne has moved very little since
0315z...perhaps just a little westward.  The initial motion is a
somewhat uncertain 260/3.  A deep-layer anticyclone over the eastern
United States is moving eastward or building into the Atlantic...and
large scale models forecast this to continue through 72 hr.  This
should move Jeanne in a general westerly direction with
acceleration.  After 72 hr...Jeanne becomes located southwest of
the anticyclone...which begins to elongate north-south.  This would
allow a northward turn and eventual recurvature into the westerlies.
As is often the case...the question is where will the turn occur.
The NOGAPS and the UKMET forecast the turn to occur after Jeanne
has hit southeastern Florida.  The GFS...GFDL... and Canadian
forecast an earlier turn...which would bring Jeanne near or over
east central or northeastern Florida.  The difference in the models
seems to be the forward speed...with the faster UKMET and NOGAPS
reaching southeastern Florida...while the other models have a
slower westward motion and do not bring Jeanne as far west before
the turn.  While the NOGAPS solution cannot be ruled out...the
UKMET has Jeanne at 70.8w at 1200z this morning and thus appears
too fast.  The forecast track is shifted westward from the previous
track and now calls for landfall in east central Florida.  It is
along the line of the model consensus but a little slower.
The intensity forecast remains tricky.  Jeanne is currently over sea
surface temperatures of about 27c...likely brought about by
upwelling caused by the slow-moving hurricane.  Since Jeanne
remains slow moving...this suggests that the current increase in
convective organization may be temporary.  Only slow strengthening
is likely while Jeanne remains east of 72w.  The waters are about
28c west of 72w...and when Jeanne reaches them it should be in a
rather favorable upper-level wind pattern.  Thus...the intensity
forecast shows strengthening.  Intensity guidance is still
reluctant to forecast Jeanne much above 95-100 kt...and the
intensity forecast will show 95 kt in agreement with this.
However...it would be no surprise to see Jeanne reach major
hurricane status in 48-72 hr.  After 72 hr...land interaction and
increasing shear should produce significant weakening.
Given the forecast of the steering currents...Florida should pay
close attention to the evolution of Jeanne.
 
Forecaster Beven
 
forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      23/0900z 25.5n  69.5w    85 kt
 12hr VT     23/1800z 25.4n  70.5w    85 kt
 24hr VT     24/0600z 25.4n  72.1w    90 kt
 36hr VT     24/1800z 25.6n  74.0w    90 kt
 48hr VT     25/0600z 26.0n  75.9w    95 kt
 72hr VT     26/0600z 27.0n  79.5w    95 kt
 96hr VT     27/0600z 29.5n  81.5w    85 kt...inland
120hr VT     28/0600z 34.0n  80.0w    75 kt...inland


[HurricaneJoe22]

looks stationary to me...anyone else agree?

[gkrangers]

Theres not much difference between 3MPH and stationary.

[Brent]

260 is the true motion, it's closer to west than WSW which is why they call it such.

[betsy65freddy79]

Does anyone have info on how far from the center of Jeanne the hurricane force and tropical storm force winds extend? This will determine what I do. Thanks.

[Brent]

Does anyone have info on how far from the center of Jeanne the hurricane force and tropical storm force winds extend? This will determine what I do. Thanks.

From 11pm last night(not likely to have changed much)

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

[Juno Beach]

I've got a bad feeling about this storm. What is the consensus here as far as how much she CAN strengthen?

I'm afraid that we may be looking at more damaging winds than Frances, though a much smaller storm radius, and the locals are just hurricane-ed out at this point, so evacuations and preparation may not be up to snuff.

The fact that I'm sitting right at 27.0/80.0 (just north of where every model in the free world seems to bring it) has me doubly worried. I don't want to be in the NE quadrant of a 120 mph storm. Not now, not ever.

Thoughts on max winds if she comes ashore in northern PB County?

[Brent]

Likely Cat 2(strong one), Good chance at a Cat 3. Water is warm.

[Guest]

Brent I dont know about that wind estimate. Better prepare for a 3 hope for a 1 I guess.

[Brent]

Brent I dont know about that wind estimate. Better prepare for a 3 hope for a 1 I guess.

I completely agree. I would prepare for something more than a 3... you can never be too sure. Remember Charley? I'm not saying that'll happen here.

[mascpa]

Hey Juno Beach!
Right now the projected track would take it a nittle north of us so we would not get the NE quadrant. But pay attention because the models will almost certainly change.

[Mation]

Brent I dont know about that wind estimate. Better prepare for a 3 hope for a 1 I guess.

I completely agree. I would prepare for something more than a 3... you can never be too sure. Remember Charley? I'm not saying that'll happen here.

Yeah, you've got Charley that rapidly intensified and Frances who everyone expected to intensify but did not. Did the Bahamas keep Frances from blowing up as they expected over the Gulf Stream?

[Juno Beach]

I hope it just holds off so I can watch my Nittany Lions on saturday @ 5:30. When someone sneezes the cable goes out here in the Bluffs.

I've already missed one game this year. Damn storms!

[Brent]

I hope it just holds off so I can watch my Nittany Lions on saturday @ 5:30. When someone sneezes the cable goes out here in the Bluffs.

I've already missed one game this year. Damn storms!

Landfall appears to be Sunday. Saturday Night conditions might start deteroiating though.

[Anonymous]

If Frances does pick up forward speed and move west at such increased speed then likely the wind damage would be more severe than cat 2 Frances brought. I think the increase in forward speed will happen to the west. Where the turn occurs is really open but it looks farther south & west with every model run. These models have been moving Jeanne more to the west with every run. Currently the highest threat according to the 5 AM PROBABILITIES is between W. Palm & Ft. Pierce, however that doesn't mean a landfall it does mean that the center of the storm will move within 65 nautical miles of these locations within 72 -96 hrs.
Take note of the west coast PROBABILITIES that show a increase from Marco Island north to Cedar Key. It should be mentioned that Pensacola and Myrtle Beach SC show a equal chance in the long term track. Of course these probabilities will change but it does now indicate the chance of Jeanne making a west cut across Florida.
If the storm stays stalled or slow moving the chances are much greater for a more eastern track towards southern NC or Eastern SC. This more eastern track due to a stall or slow movement long term could also mean a sharper NE turn in the future.
None the less it will be a close call for Florida and Jeanne will likely be a nail biting weekend unless she starts moving more quickly for the SE from Florida to the Carolinas.

Mike