Ivan Landfall in 6 hours???

golter · #1 Postby **golter** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:10 am

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html

Ivan is almost to LA coast, at current heading and speed it should reach central LA coast in the next 6 hours. I cant see center going any further west than Lake Charles. More likely to be 75 miles east of there.

#2 Postby **HollynLA** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:12 am

Hitting land in 6 hours may be a good thing as it would have no chance of intensifying into something more. We could all use the rain in south LA and as long as it keeps moving at a good clip, the rain won't be too bad. Now if it stalls, that's another story. Ivan needs to be anialated!

ROCK · #3 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:18 am

golter wrote:http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_HUR/animauto.html

Ivan is almost to LA coast, at current heading and speed it should reach central LA coast in the next 6 hours. I cant see center going any further west than Lake Charles. More likely to be 75 miles east of there.

thats interesting the NHC still shows a Tx landfall...I wonder why they are wrong in this instance..... :roll:

golter · #4 Postby **golter** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:23 am

last nhc forecast was over 4 hours ago. Its move well north of their path. at 10cdt it will be moved to LA.

ROCK · #5 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:34 am

golter wrote:last nhc forecast was over 4 hours ago. Its move well north of their path. at 10cdt it will be moved to LA.

because of the shear the t-storms are being blown to the N and NE thus it looks like a North movement. Still the center moves WNW.....

golter · #6 Postby **golter** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:38 am

center moved 7 points north and 6 points west from 4am to 7am advisory. The center moved NW. WNW would have been 4 points north and 8 points west. Rock, ive said for 2 days now that the ridge to NE is weak and storm would make landfall in LA. It appears that I will be right. We will know more in 3 hours. Storm center is due E of Galveston Island, its not going near there.

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:42 am

Currently, Ivan looks to be moving between W and WNW to me.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:46 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Currently, Ivan looks to be moving between W and WNW to me.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

It is really hard to tell based on that short radar
loop. I do know he is much closer to the coast of LA. than
the NHC had him forecasted.

ROCK · #9 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:48 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Currently, Ivan looks to be moving between W and WNW to me.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

thanks god another voice of reason....I agree....looks like its going to skirt the coast up until landfall around Port Aurther. I sure hope those earlier UKMET runs dont pan out.... :eek:

chadtm80 · #10 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:48 am

FWIW http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=47013

golter · #11 Postby **golter** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:53 am

ROCK wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:Currently, Ivan looks to be moving between W and WNW to me.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

thanks god another voice of reason....I agree....looks like its going to skirt the coast up until landfall around Port Aurther. I sure hope those earlier UKMET runs dont pan out....

Purdue and Rock, please explain NW movement based on LLC from 4am to 7am.

Heres another view of it.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html

#12 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:54 am

I think it is pretty clear that the storm is not moving NW. Do we know when this tv met posted his blurb this morning? If it was earlier, then he is correct in that Ivan was moving NW, but the radar loop clearly shows W to WNW.

#13 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:54 am

golter wrote:
ROCK wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:Currently, Ivan looks to be moving between W and WNW to me.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

thanks god another voice of reason....I agree....looks like its going to skirt the coast up until landfall around Port Aurther. I sure hope those earlier UKMET runs dont pan out....

Purdue and Rock, please explain NW movement based on LLC from 4am to 7am.

Heres another view of it.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_ ... mauto.html

I'm talking about now, not 2-5 hours ago.

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:56 am

Locals here still saying Upper Texas coast. lol

Who knows! Guess we'll find out for sure what it's gonna do when it crosses land somewhere.

TexasStooge · #15 Postby **TexasStooge** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:59 am

TROPICAL STORM WARNING until Further Notice

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
737 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FROM
NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKE BY RESIDENTS
OF LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...HARRIS...GALVESTON...AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES OF
TEXAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST FROM NORTH OF SARGENT TO MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

...STORM INFORMATION...

.LOCATION...
AT 7 AM CDT...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 95
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

.MOVEMENT...
TROPICAL STORM IVAN HAS HAS SPED UP OVERNIGHT... NOW MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  EXPECT THIS MOTION TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL
THIS EVENING.

.WINDS...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY
EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS LIVING ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM WINDS REACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH RECEPTACLES... LAWN
FURNITURE... AND RECREATIONAL EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PUT INSIDE OR TIED
DOWN TO HELP PREVENT DAMAGE TO WINDOWS AND DOORWAYS. PERSONS LIVING
ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR GALVESTON BAY AT ELEVATIONS OF 6 FEET MSL OR
LESS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE SURGE FLOODING DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. SOME ROADS NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR GALVESTON
BAY COULD BECOME INUNDATED EARLY THURSDAY MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IF
NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER RADIO AND OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATIONS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. FOLLOW ADVISE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
EAST WINDS HAVE RELAXED SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY CAUSING TIDES TO AGAIN RISE TO
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. TIDE LEVELS COULD REACH UP TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION THURSDAY
EVENING. AFTER IVAN MAKES LANDFALL... WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME
OFFSHORE AND DIMINISH.  TIDES WILL GRADUALLY ABATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

LOCATION       HIGH TIDE TIME     NORMAL LEVEL      PREDICTED LEVEL

CLEAR LAKE     THU 9:41 AM        1.3 FEET          3.4 FEET

EAGLE POINT    THU 7:30 AM        1.4 FEET          3.7 FEET

FREEPORT       FRI 3:13 AM        2.5 FEET          3.5 FEET

GALVESTON      FRI 3:57 AM        1.9 FEET          3.0 FEET
CHANNEL

JAMAICA        FRI 6:35 AM        1.4 FEET          2.5 FEET
BEACH

PLEASURE PIER  FRI 2:33 AM        2.9 FEET          4.0 FEET

PORT BOLIVAR   FRI 4:11 AM        1.9 FEET          3.4 FEET

SAN LUIS PASS  FRI 3:48 AM        1.6 FEET          2.6 FEET

NOTE: WATER LEVELS ARE REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER

REFERENCE LEVELS AND LOCAL EFFECTS ARE PROVIDED BELOW:

...AT 4.0 FEET...
GALVESTON AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA: WATER BEGINS COVERING THE LOWEST
WATERFRONT STREETS ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA...WESTERN GALVESTON ISLAND
AND THE JAMAICA BEACH AREA.

DICKINSON...ROADS NEAR GUM AND DICKINSON BAYOU BELOW THE GOLF COURSE
MAY FLOOD AND BECOME IMPASSABLE.

KEMAH AND SEABROOK: WATER BEGINS TO COVER PORTIONS OF TODDVILLE ROAD.
WATER APPROACHES LOWER PORTIONS OF RED BLUFF ROAD BETWEEN BAY AREA
BLVD AND HIGHWAY 146.

CHAMBERS COUNTY: PORTIONS OF WEST BAYSHORE RD BETWEEN ANAHUAC AND OAK
ISLAND BEGIN TO FLOOD. WATER ALSO APPROACHES HIGHWAY 124 BETWEEN
HIGH ISLAND AND FM 1985.

...AT 4.5 FEET...
GALVESTON AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA: PARTS OF HIGHWAY 87 BECOME
IMPASSABLE.

KEMAH AND SEABROOK: PARTS OF TODDVILLE ROAD CLOSED.

CHAMBERS COUNTY: FM 562 NORTHEAST OF SMITH POINT BEGINS FLOODING.

...AT 5.0 FEET...

BRAZORIA COUNTY...
SURFSIDE...WATER APPROACHES DUNES...PORTIONS OF FM 523 BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 332 AND FM 2004 BEGIN TO FLOOD. FM 2918 NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
SAN BERNARD RIVER BEGINS TO FLOOD.

GALVESTON COUNTY...
FERRY SERVICE TO AND FROM BOLIVAR CEASES. MANY FEEDER ROADS NEAR THE
BAY BEGIN TO FLOOD BETWEEN HIGHWAY 6 AND I-45 AND HITCHCOCK.

WATER 3 FEET DEEP ALONG TODDVILLE ROAD. WATER MAY GET INTO HOMES
NEAR THE ROAD.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS CURRENTLY ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY REACH THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS OF 40 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR LANDFALL...
MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE STORM CENTER. WINDS EAST OF THE STORM
CENTER WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AFTER LANDFALL.

...RAINFALL...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING
THE EVENING... WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORM CENTER.

FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX.

THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM IVAN STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 AM
CDT.

ROCK · #16 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:05 am

Lets all understand something here this is not a very organized TS. Very broad circulation, under SW shear enviroment. Yes it is closer to the coast of LA due to LLC relocating / reforming under the convection over night however looking at the latest radars (that dont give a true indication BTW) it looks like WNW....so we agree to disagree....seems like we have had this discussion before......enough said until final word from NHC at 10am....

LaBreeze · #17 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:13 am

Wind picking up somewhat and good steady rain here.

cape_escape · #18 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:16 am

I just cannot believe we are still talking about Ivan! How long has it been now? Go away Ivan, we've seen enough already!

Guest · #19 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:16 am

Who thinks this might be a hurricane by 11 tonight.

ROCK · #20 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:18 am

smokin wrote:Who thinks this might be a hurricane by 11 tonight.

to close to landfall but if that ULL drags it south and sw then who knows. We might be talking about another landfall area by Monday...

Purdue lastest out of LK Charles looks due west to me possibly interacting with the ULL ....

Ivan Landfall in 6 hours???

Ivan Landfall in 6 hours???

Re: Ivan Landfall in 6 hours???

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