Jeanne wobble NW

MortisFL · #1 Postby **MortisFL** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:33 am

It's "expected" to move westward today...but any wobble like that can definitely throw off the future path. Jeanne isn't moving terribly fast either.

lwg8tr · #2 Postby **lwg8tr** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:43 am

MortisFL wrote:It's "expected" to move westward today...but any wobble like that can definitely throw off the future path. Jeanne isn't moving terribly fast either.

First wobble thread of the day!! Whoohoo and it's only 9:42am. Seriously, I just took down my shutters...arghhhh. I wonder where the 11:00am track will be. From the info I have been seeing and reading I suspect another jump South and west. Coming ashore in West Palm and moving up the spine of Florida. I just put my deposit down on a new roof!!!

Weatherboy1 · #3 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:49 am

Over the past 12-18 hours, Jeanne has been wobbling WSW to W to WNW and back again. But generally, she's heading due W slowly. It appears she might be in the latter stages of an eyewall replacement cycle, which unfortunately, typically leads to strengthening afterward. As others have pointed out, the key to Jeanne's intensity and landfall is forward speed. If she speeds up soon, she'll get further W and get over warmer water sooner. If she takes a while to accelerate, she'll turn NW and N sooner, and will sit over waters that she has already churned up ... therefore, capping intensity. It truly is too early to call an exact landfall point. But please, please do not start paying attention to every little wobble. There is absolutely, positively no meteorological reason why she would turn N for at least the next 48 hours in my view. The ridge to her NW and N is a monster, and that will cap any move to the N for now. Anywhere in FL from Broward county on up to Jacksonville is a potential landfall point (and to a lesser extent, so is SE GA, SC and least likely -- for an INITIAL landfall, that is -- NC). All of the SE will likely see some impact from waves, wind, and rain.[/url]

CourierPR · #4 Postby **CourierPR** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:02 am

That NW wobble you speak of is not evident on RAMSDIS real time loop.

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:04 am

Actually, the 6Z GFS showed a bit of a WNW wobble on the loop. This was followed by a WSW- west motion. Intensity won't pick up til its west of 72. Motion and track are still basically on target with the 6Z run. It should begin to move tonight. Cheers!!

#6 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:05 am

Steve H. wrote:Actually, the 6Z GFS showed a bit of a WNW wobble on the loop. This was followed by a WSW- west motion. Intensity won't pick up til its west of 72. Motion and track are still basically on target with the 6Z run. It should begin to move tonight. Cheers!!

well we know for sure it cant get to far off track based on that ridge to its north..i think its probably just bumping off the ridge and will start west before 5 today and start scaring everyone from miami to yacksonville

miamijaaz · #7 Postby **miamijaaz** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:13 am

I hate to bring up this name at this point, but does anyone remember where Andrew was at this longitude? Was he north or south of Jeanne's position?

#8 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:16 am

You can go to this site:

http://html.nbc6.net/sh/idi/weather/hur ... acker.html

Click on historical storms, then choose Andrew. It'll show you the path. Then, if you go to 2004 storms and choose Jeanne, it'll show you her path up to now.

bahamaswx · #9 Postby **bahamaswx** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:16 am

miamijaaz wrote:I hate to bring up this name at this point, but does anyone remember where Andrew was at this longitude? Was he north or south of Jeanne's position?

He was 16-18miles north of Jeanne's position.

#10 Postby **Jevo** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:18 am

Excellent wobblecasting if i say so myself

Sanibel · #11 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:18 am

It could be a sign that she's reached the southern extent of the ridge influence and will recurve earlier...

#12 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:24 am

Sanibel wrote:It could be a sign that she's reached the southern extent of the ridge influence and will recurve earlier...

very doubtful..that ridge is in place for the next several days...AT LEAST.

caneman · #13 Postby **caneman** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:26 am

Sanibel wrote:It could be a sign that she's reached the southern extent of the ridge influence and will recurve earlier...

Don't think so. Remember there are peaks and valleys in ridges and it's not a straight line. IF it picks up speed soon it should landfall in FLorida.

jpigott · #14 Postby **jpigott** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:28 am

with the way the models/forecasters have been underplaying the strength of that ridge this year I wouldn't be surprised if Jeanne makes it into the gulf before turning N

miamijaaz · #15 Postby **miamijaaz** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:45 am

Canelaw99 wrote:You can go to this site:

http://html.nbc6.net/sh/idi/weather/hur ... acker.html

Click on historical storms, then choose Andrew. It'll show you the path. Then, if you go to 2004 storms and choose Jeanne, it'll show you her path up to now.

Okay, that freaked me out. Jeanne is almost EXACTLY in the same place as Andrew was at this time.

cape_escape · #16 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:47 am

bahamaswx wrote:
miamijaaz wrote:I hate to bring up this name at this point, but does anyone remember where Andrew was at this longitude? Was he north or south of Jeanne's position?

He was 16-18miles north of Jeanne's position.

The Labor Day (1935) looks to be pretty close to Jeanne's position as well.

#17 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:47 am

Yup, miamijaaz - I saw that too after I posted the site here. Spooky isn't it???

#18 Postby **mascpa** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:55 am

I don't see how anyone can make a judgement on direction, or a change in direction, when a storm is only moving 3 mph. All we'll see are wobbles back and forth. We just have to be patient (which is very hard for this group, myself included) and see where she wants to go. I'm guessing that by this time tomorrow we'll have a good idea where she wants to go.

Jeanne wobble NW

Jeanne wobble NW

Re: Jeanne wobble NW

eyewall replacement maybe?

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