Ivan model runs, really weird

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:51 am

Now this is really weird. A majority of the
models have him coming back out into the GOM.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

#2 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:55 am

Surprised me as well to see this and to see how so many are going against conventional and/or model guidance, including NHC. But they're the experts and I know I'm not.

If it does take that SW drift ... a lot of us in TX will be pretty wet this weekend.

x-y-no · #3 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:57 am

Hmm ... looping around for a third swing at the coast?

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:58 am

The models curving Ivan WAY northeast have a signficant statistical input. They know that storms often recurve, so the 2 or 3 doing that follow climatology more than what the actual weather is doing.

TexasStooge · #5 Postby **TexasStooge** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:58 am

Wait a minute, I thought we're through with Ivan.

#6 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:58 am

x-y-no wrote:Hmm ... looping around for a third swing at the coast?

Isn't that what yesterday's UKMet was suggesting?

I know Accuwx's JB is also suggesting this as a POSSIBILITY.

Man, that would be one weird track before all is said and done if it were to really happen!

golter · #7 Postby **golter** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:00 am

The most current one the BAMM that has it going NE eventually is the only one with the center anywhere near current location.

Ixolib · #8 Postby **Ixolib** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:01 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:The models curving Ivan WAY northeast have a signficant statistical input. They know that storms often recurve, so the 2 or 3 doing that follow climatology more than what the actual weather is doing.

So, which is most accurate in terms of this storm's future - "climatology" or "actual weather"? Or, does one simply support the other in the models?

#9 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:01 am

golter wrote:The most current one the BAMM that has it going NE eventually is the only one with the center anywhere near current location.

Well, initialization speaks pretty loudly when it comes to computer models, right?

#10 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:05 am

Actual weather...I hadn't looked at the map you posted above, but one from another site shows the partically-statistical models all taking Ivan to the NE. That more than like is not going to happen...the trough to the north has missed the connection, and the steering will be dominated by the upper low in the BOC.

ROCK · #11 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:11 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Actual weather...I hadn't looked at the map you posted above, but one from another site shows the partically-statistical models all taking Ivan to the NE. That more than like is not going to happen...the trough to the north has missed the connection, and the steering will be dominated by the upper low in the BOC.

agreed as AFM has stated earlier. There should be a left shift soon albeit it might be inland at that time but the ULL should drag it down the coast. We shall see...

Ivan model runs, really weird

Ivan model runs, really weird

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