Ivan slowing down or stalling?

[Stormcenter]

He doesn't look like he's moved much the past
few hours.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

[Air Force Met]

He doesn't look like he's moved much the past
few hours.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

I noticed that too.

[ROCK]

He doesn't look like he's moved much the past
few hours.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... &itype=vis

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

I noticed that too.

Very slow drift it seems to the west not the 13mph from the 7am. Wonder if the ULL in the BOC is getting hold of it??

[Stratosphere747]

I thought that last night...Then he gained speed...But it does look as if he has made it far enough west to not be pushed by the southerly shear?

[GalvestonDuck]

This storm! Grrrrrr....

[PurdueWx80]

It makes sense since the deep convection is gone...the steering flow is now much more shallow and closer to the surface, where winds are lighter and more easterly. Once deep convection fires up (think it may be happening now), there shouldn't be as much of a northward component as before since the upper low would be inducing less southerly shear.

[LaBreeze]

Lighter sky off to the southeast now, and rainfall has slackened somewhat. Still very breezy.

[Stratosphere747]

Hmm...So does it sit there or just move on a slower pace?

[ROCK]

:wall:

This storm! Grrrrrr....

patience Duck its on the way......

[tw861]

The latest recon fix..

URNT12 KNHC 231342
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1342Z
B. 29 DEG 00 MIN N
92 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1420 M
D. 50 KT
E. 222 DEG 002 NM
F. 300 DEG 36 KT
G. 216 DEG 007 NM
H. 1000 MB
I. 16 C/ 1537 M
J. 22 C/ 1534 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/ 3 NM
P. AF866 4509A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 70 KT N QUAD 1213Z


shows basically a due westward movement. It also seems to have slowed somewhat which might not be such a good thing if the shear continues to relax as it has seemed to have done a little.

[vbhoutex]

Right now, based on those short loops(really need longer ones for verification), it does appear that Ivan has slowed and is currently paralleling the coast. IMO, Ivan is still on course for a Port Arthur or West landfall later today. I hope this apparent slow down is not a precursor to a more W or WSW course that would keep him over water for a longer time and put him into a better environment for strengthening. We all need the rain in the SW LA SE TX area, but not the 10" rains that are being talked about. If the latter scenario started to pan out we could see even more than that! Not predicting, just looking at scenarios.

[Sanibel]

70 knots translates into around 62 knots at the surface right? I thought that LLC had a faster spin than 40mph.

The loop also made me think of a slow down and linger off the coast...