Hurricane Jeanne Forecast/Advisory Number 40
Statement as of 15:00Z on September 23, 2004
a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and
San Salvador. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area within 36 hr.
A Hurricane Watch may be required for the northwestern Bahamas later
today.
Interests in the northwest Bahamas...and on the Florida Peninsula...
should closely monitor the progress of Jeanne.
Hurricane center located near 25.6n 69.7w at 23/1500z
position accurate within 10 nm
present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 4 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 966 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 30ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 60ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt.......100ne 100se 100sw 120nw.
12 ft seas..540ne 470se 470sw 600nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 25.6n 69.7w at 23/1500z
at 23/1200z center was located near 25.6n 69.5w
forecast valid 24/0000z 25.6n 70.9w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 24/1200z 25.6n 72.6w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 25/0000z 25.7n 74.6w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 30sw 40nw.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...120ne 100se 100sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 25/1200z 26.0n 76.8w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...120ne 100se 100sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 26/1200z 27.3n 80.2w...near Florida East Coast
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
50 kt... 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
34 kt...140ne 110se 110sw 140nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 27/1200z 30.5n 81.5w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
Outlook valid 28/1200z 35.0n 78.5w...inland
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.6n 69.7w
next advisory at 23/2100z
forecaster Stewart
11am Jeanne-105 mph winds, Major Hurricane before landfall
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Brent
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Sunday Morning position is on the coast where Frances hit...
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 1_5day.gif
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 1_5day.gif
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#neversummer
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Brent
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Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 40
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 23, 2004
...Jeanne strengthens a little while moving slowly westward...
a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and
San Salvador. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area within 36 hr.
A Hurricane Watch may be required for the northwestern Bahamas later
today.
Interests in the northwest Bahamas...and on the Florida Peninsula...
should closely monitor the progress of Jeanne.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 25.6 north...longitude 69.7 west or about 465
miles... 745 km...east of great abaco island.
Jeanne is moving toward the west near 5 mph... 7 km/hr... and
genereal motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. A slow increase in strength is possible during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb...28.53 inches.
Dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by large swells generated
by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible along the southeastern U.S.
Coast and the northwest and central Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...25.6 N... 69.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 966 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 23, 2004
...Jeanne strengthens a little while moving slowly westward...
a tropical storm watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and
San Salvador. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area within 36 hr.
A Hurricane Watch may be required for the northwestern Bahamas later
today.
Interests in the northwest Bahamas...and on the Florida Peninsula...
should closely monitor the progress of Jeanne.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 25.6 north...longitude 69.7 west or about 465
miles... 745 km...east of great abaco island.
Jeanne is moving toward the west near 5 mph... 7 km/hr... and
genereal motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. A slow increase in strength is possible during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb...28.53 inches.
Dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by large swells generated
by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible along the southeastern U.S.
Coast and the northwest and central Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...25.6 N... 69.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 966 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
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#neversummer
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adelphi_sky
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Brent
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Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 40
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 23, 2004
satellite imagery earlier this morning indicated a well-defined
cloud-free eye with a ring of cold tops surrounding the eye. The
Dvorak intensity estimate was a consensus t5.5...or 102 kt...from
all three satellite agencies. However...during the past couple of
hours...cloud tops have significantly warmed and the eye has become
a little more ragged. As such...the intensity is only being
increased to 90 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/4. Jeanne is
surrounded by high pressure everywhere but the south...so there has
been little in the way of definitive movement the past 6 hours.
However...all of the available NHC model guidance indicates the
pressures to the west of Jeanne should begin to decrease as Ivan
moves northwestward and that should allow for a slow westward
motion to begin shortly. In the longer term...the trough-ridge
pattern over the central and eastern U.S. And into the central
Atlantic is forecast to amplify by all of the global models. This
results in a ridge between Bermuda and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast
to remain nearly stationary the next 48-72 hours while building
slowly southward. A deep-layer easterly flow regime is expected to
move Jeanne westward for the next 48-60 hours...with a possible
turn to the northwest as the hurricane nears the Florida East Coast
in about 72 hours. The official track was nudged westward out of
respect for the NOGAPS and GFDN models...which were first two
models and the most consistent ones to indicate a westward motion
toward Florida.
The intensity forecast is still tricky. Ocean conditions near Jeanne
are currently not favorable for significant strengthening to occur.
However...by 24-48 hours...the outflow pattern is expected to
improve and Jeanne is forecast to move over warmer water near the
Bahamas. This should allow for some additional strengthening to
occur. By 72 hours...just prior to landfall...increasing south to
southwesterly upper-level shear may bring about some significant
weakening...but this is too close to call right now.
Given the forecast of the steering currents...Florida should pay
close attention to the evolution of Jeanne.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/1500z 25.6n 69.7w 90 kt
12hr VT 24/0000z 25.6n 70.9w 90 kt
24hr VT 24/1200z 25.6n 72.6w 95 kt
36hr VT 25/0000z 25.7n 74.6w 100 kt
48hr VT 25/1200z 26.0n 76.8w 100 kt
72hr VT 26/1200z 27.3n 80.2w 95 kt...nr Florida East Coast
96hr VT 27/1200z 30.5n 81.5w 65 kt...inland
120hr VT 28/1200z 35.0n 78.5w 45 kt...inland
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 23, 2004
satellite imagery earlier this morning indicated a well-defined
cloud-free eye with a ring of cold tops surrounding the eye. The
Dvorak intensity estimate was a consensus t5.5...or 102 kt...from
all three satellite agencies. However...during the past couple of
hours...cloud tops have significantly warmed and the eye has become
a little more ragged. As such...the intensity is only being
increased to 90 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/4. Jeanne is
surrounded by high pressure everywhere but the south...so there has
been little in the way of definitive movement the past 6 hours.
However...all of the available NHC model guidance indicates the
pressures to the west of Jeanne should begin to decrease as Ivan
moves northwestward and that should allow for a slow westward
motion to begin shortly. In the longer term...the trough-ridge
pattern over the central and eastern U.S. And into the central
Atlantic is forecast to amplify by all of the global models. This
results in a ridge between Bermuda and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast
to remain nearly stationary the next 48-72 hours while building
slowly southward. A deep-layer easterly flow regime is expected to
move Jeanne westward for the next 48-60 hours...with a possible
turn to the northwest as the hurricane nears the Florida East Coast
in about 72 hours. The official track was nudged westward out of
respect for the NOGAPS and GFDN models...which were first two
models and the most consistent ones to indicate a westward motion
toward Florida.
The intensity forecast is still tricky. Ocean conditions near Jeanne
are currently not favorable for significant strengthening to occur.
However...by 24-48 hours...the outflow pattern is expected to
improve and Jeanne is forecast to move over warmer water near the
Bahamas. This should allow for some additional strengthening to
occur. By 72 hours...just prior to landfall...increasing south to
southwesterly upper-level shear may bring about some significant
weakening...but this is too close to call right now.
Given the forecast of the steering currents...Florida should pay
close attention to the evolution of Jeanne.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/1500z 25.6n 69.7w 90 kt
12hr VT 24/0000z 25.6n 70.9w 90 kt
24hr VT 24/1200z 25.6n 72.6w 95 kt
36hr VT 25/0000z 25.7n 74.6w 100 kt
48hr VT 25/1200z 26.0n 76.8w 100 kt
72hr VT 26/1200z 27.3n 80.2w 95 kt...nr Florida East Coast
96hr VT 27/1200z 30.5n 81.5w 65 kt...inland
120hr VT 28/1200z 35.0n 78.5w 45 kt...inland
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#neversummer
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djti
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Typhoon_Willie
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jpigott wrote:what are DT, Derek Ortt, JB saying about this new trend west that has developed in the past 24 hours. I know what NHC says but haven't heard too much from these other guys
Derek has been having internet problems:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=47019
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