WATCH the Outflow Channel associated with Jeanne ...

[Stormsfury]

Watch the equatorial side outflow channel of Jeanne that's heading NW into GA/SC ATT ... where this eventually sets up is possibly giving us some hints of her next move and where's she's going to go ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Steve]

Fury,

Ordinarilly I would agree with the telegraph analysis, but with the pressure from the north and NE farther south, it may not pan out in this particular instance. I think while it's usually a pretty good indicator (as popcorn storms can be out in front of a future path), I'm not sold (yet anyway) that Southern South Carolina is the future target.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

Fury,

Ordinarilly I would agree with the telegraph analysis, but with the pressure from the north and NE farther south, it may not pan out in this particular instance. I think while it's usually a pretty good indicator (as popcorn storms can be out in front of a future path), I'm not sold (yet anyway) that Southern South Carolina is the future target.

Steve

Steve, watch the OSCILLATIONS of the outflow channel, right now that outflow channel seems to be shifting a little further south and west, but MAY end up giving us a clue where she's going to head ...

[x-y-no]

My concern is that as the trough in the plains lifts out, the ridge will build back a bit beneath it, bringing her further west into Florida.

I'm still not too worried down here, I think central FL is most likely, but given this storm's contrary history I'm not entirely sanguine either.

[Guest]

How far inland does she affect (Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh?) given your analysis, Fury?

[ncweatherwizard]

Steve, watch the OSCILLATIONS of the outflow channel, right now that outflow channel seems to be shifting a little further south and west, but MAY end up giving us a clue where she's going to head ...

What do you mean by oscillations here?

[Steve]

Yeah, I noticed that too. Bobbi/Lois Cane and I were discussing the same thing on CFHC. The 12Z NOGAPS is actually going with another dual FL landfall (Peninsula and Panhandle). She opined that the dry air which has moved down through NC and now into SC may continue it's southward push making the NOGAPS solution a little more possible. I don't know because I don't have a handle one way or the other yet. I think the future forward speed (whichever direction that is) may show us how far west Jeanne can get before turning up (which I think is a foregone conclusion she will).

Steve

[Steve]

The ORCA Loop at Derek's site (WV/IR) kind of shows what I was talking about. The outflow jet is just streaming in on the sothern and western side of that ridge.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[Stormsfury]

Steve, watch the OSCILLATIONS of the outflow channel, right now that outflow channel seems to be shifting a little further south and west, but MAY end up giving us a clue where she's going to head ...

What do you mean by oscillations here?

What I mean is that the outflow channel is possibly giving us clues on the path of least resistance for Jeanne to travel along ... a corridor ...

SF

[ncweatherwizard]

Steve, watch the OSCILLATIONS of the outflow channel, right now that outflow channel seems to be shifting a little further south and west, but MAY end up giving us a clue where she's going to head ...

What do you mean by oscillations here?

What I mean is that the outflow channel is possibly giving us clues on the path of least resistance for Jeanne to travel along ... a corridor ...

SF

When I think oscillations, I think of something moving back and forth. I see your reasoning--which is logical based on initial time; of course the dynamics are fairly wide open. Ridging is forcing that channel (outflow and dry air) southwest; I was wondering if you were suggesting a movement to the northeast then to the southwest, etc. of that channel.

[Guest]

I've noticed this season especially with all the landfalling storms that this particular phenomenom of outflow channels has meant little when it was all set & done.

I am not saying its not a good way of showing future movement ,I'm just saying that it has'nt been a great tool this year as weather patterns have been stagnant or change it the blink of an eye.

[Sanibel]

The upper outflow is at a different level than the steering currents aound the High.


My look at the CONUS flow of that trough shows a fall-like fast west to east movement. Perhaps the High won't backflow into this? I'm not sure because it all depends on the diagonal position of that trough and how it flows up and over or not...