12Z GFS...Jeanne Blocked By Ridge and SE FL Landfall

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:07 am

No significant changes in the 12Z guidance. Jeanne is going to get locked in to a potential landfall with enough ridging to the north to move Jeanne in by 60 to 66 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_066s.gif

Jean should continue to move slowly for the next 24 hours or so...but by this time tomorrow it will make it's move.

More as the rest of the guidance trickles out.

MW

x-y-no · #2 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:12 am

Very similar to the last few runs ...

Has her starting to turn NW just as she gets to the Broward county coast.

Windsong · #3 Postby **Windsong** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:12 am

As always, thank you Mike!

Sanibel · #4 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:19 am

If a strong ridge is building, why is it wobbling 285*?

#5 Postby **mascpa** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:22 am

Thank you Mike, I've been waiting to see what you had to say hoping it would be something different. Preparations are well under way at my house although I'm kicking myself for putting the shutters back in the garage last Saturday.

#6 Postby **mascpa** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:23 am

Sanible, key word is wobble. Keep watching and I'll bet you see a wobble back to 255 or so.

x-y-no · #7 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:26 am

Sanibel wrote:If a strong ridge is building, why is it wobbling 285*?

That's a good question ... A couple more hours ought to tell us if that's just an anomaly, though.

The ridge looks strong on WV, and it initialized strong in the latest GFS run.

My niggling concern here is that the GFS has a well-known tendency to knock ridges down too fast. If you look at the 6 hour frame from the 6Z run compared to the 12Z initialization, it's doing that again. So if the GFS - with that known tendency - is taking her to SFL, I'm having a hard time justifying my gut feeling that she goes somewhat north of that.

#8 Postby **mascpa** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:28 am

Oh she'll definitely go somewhere north of SE FL ... after she's done with us.

Weatherboy1 · #9 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:28 am

Not sure if this link will work right (you may have to go to the main site), but the 12Z NOGAPS run has Jeanne plowing into Palm Beach County like earlier runs and then hooking NW and N in the far eastern gulf...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXMAP/NGP/2004092312/ngp10.usf.072.troplant.gif

If the UKMET, EURO, GFDL, etc. follow this trend, then I'm going to get real nervous here.

Sanibel · #10 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:29 am

Agreed that this one has a reverse of previous storms. The gut wants to curve it in relation to its present north wobble, however, the error trend takes it further west...

x-y-no · #11 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:30 am

mascpa wrote:Oh she'll definitely go somewhere north of SE FL ... after she's done with us.

Rather selfishly, I'd like to see her head north before she gets to us. 8-)

Steve H. · #12 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:30 am

12Z NOGAPS is almost identical to the 12Z GFS. Question for Mike. Is that near WPB, Ft. Lauderdale or closer to Stuart on the GFS Landfall? I get confused looking at that map 'cause its so small. Thanks in advance.

#13 Postby **Canelaw99** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 11:30 am

I posted this link on another thread, but it would appear, to these unprofessional eyes, that the models are taking her into either southern FL (Miami area) or into south central FL (closer to Port St. Lucie area)....not a good thing...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Guest · #14 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:00 pm

Sanibel wrote:If a strong ridge is building, why is it wobbling 285*?

Its interesting that some of the models show this initial W/NW movement & then move the storm west & W/SW briefly then back to the west & W/NW.

CaneCurious · #15 Postby **CaneCurious** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:05 pm

Would there be any chance that this would cross the FL peninsula and make landfall anywhere in the central GOM? Ivan drained me last week so I want to be prepared.

chigger11 · #16 Postby **chigger11** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:10 pm

All my Jupiter peeps, we should have a barbecue at Carlin Park or the Juno Beach Pier on Saturday night. Whaddaya say?

x-y-no · #17 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:12 pm

CaneCurious wrote:Would there be any chance that this would cross the FL peninsula and make landfall anywhere in the central GOM? Ivan drained me last week so I want to be prepared.

One can't absolutely rule it out with this B*tch of a storm, but I think it highly unlikely. The turn north is going to happen before then, I believe.

#18 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:15 pm

MWatkins wrote:No significant changes in the 12Z guidance. Jeanne is going to get locked in to a potential landfall with enough ridging to the north to move Jeanne in by 60 to 66 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_066s.gif

Jean should continue to move slowly for the next 24 hours or so...but by this time tomorrow it will make it's move.

More as the rest of the guidance trickles out.

MW

well we know gfdl and some of the hurricane models will of course follow suit. this is totally in-line with the whole season as the ridging has been stronger than originall forecast and we get these farther west tracks.

Website · #19 Postby **FritzPaul** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:17 pm

Looking at the model guidance, I feel I've gone into
a time warp several weeks back; Back to Frances.

DESTRUCTION5 · #20 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 12:27 pm

chigger11 wrote:All my Jupiter peeps, we should have a barbecue at Carlin Park or the Juno Beach Pier on Saturday night. Whaddaya say?

We could if it were open!!!

12Z GFS...Jeanne Blocked By Ridge and SE FL Landfall

12Z GFS...Jeanne Blocked By Ridge and SE FL Landfall

12Z NOGAPS -- westward across Palm Beach County

JUPITER IS IN THE HOUSE!

Re: 12Z GFS...Jeanne Blocked By Ridge and SE FL Landfall

Re: JUPITER IS IN THE HOUSE!

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