The trend has been to the south

[Zadok]

because Jeanne is meandering in the western Atlantic, its future track remains uncertain and it could aim farther north - or south toward West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale or Miami.

Indeed, the trend has been to the south, as the last few advisories from the National Hurricane Center have seen the projected landfall move from the Carolinas to the Daytona Beach area to the Treasure Coast.

SOURCE

[Foladar]

Don't say that :|

[Dmetal81]

The trend has been to move the forecast path to the south and west, but the models have been rather consistent the last 24 hours. As of right now only the more outlier models bring the hurricane just north of Miami, and all agree (except for the BAMM, but nothing unusual there) that there will be a recurvature pattern and Jeanne will recurve at some point. Unforunately it looks like Florida is going to be under or near the apex of that curve.
I dont expect the forecast path to move any farther south, only more westward. But, only time will tell.

[Foladar]

so if the models hold, it will prob hit near Miami?

[Dmetal81]

Depends on the model. The accurate statement would be, "If the models hold it would hit anywhere from north of miami to north carolina"....

[patsmsg]

I know the initial track is quite different, but overall, the current forecast path(s) seem to be quite reminiscent of Frances.

[simplyme]

When referring to landfall, yes, but after landfall the track is pretty different from Frances I believe.

[Zadok]

It seems to me that the track has been shifted again to the south at 5 PM. Anyone else see this?

[gkrangers]

Slightly south.

It all depends on the turn.

If it turns NW/N before landfall, it'll hit central or northern FL.

If it turns NW/N at or after landfall, it'll hit southern FL.

[Zadok]

If they keep adjusting the track south and west it won't be long till they have it going through Broward or Dade and out into the Gulf.

[Zadok]

Like I said the other day stay focused on the trend south.............

[LakeToho]

Very unlikely that the hurricane will be any further south than it is right now. IF the hurricane moved directly west, Boca Raton would be a direct hit. However, the storm has a slight northward component (Ever so slight but still a northward component). SO highly unlikely that Miami will get a direct hit, indirect yes, but I would think that we are mostly looking at an area between West Palm and Melbourne for a direct hit.