12Z GFS...Jeanne Blocked By Ridge and SE FL Landfall

[Sanibel]

Straight curve from here or return west???

[donsutherland1]

Mike,

I strongly agree about impact of the ridging and the Florida landfall idea. Great post!

[jpigott]

Sanibel - straingt curve from here? Have you seen the ridge to Jeanne's north. I can't see her going anywhere but west for the short term

[Foladar]

Do you guys think Homestead will be greatly effected?

[jlauderdal]

Do you guys think Homestead will be greatly effected?

if the GFS verifies you will be affected

[Foladar]

Do you guys think Homestead will be greatly effected?

if the GFS verifies you will be affected

how bad do you think ? Tropical Storm winds?

[jlauderdal]

Do you guys think Homestead will be greatly effected?

if the GFS verifies you will be affected

how bad do you think ? Tropical Storm winds?

nobody here or anywhere else is in position to start narrowing it that close...this thing could go north and you would get very little or it stays south and heads due west and you have a hurricane to deal with..wait a day or so

[Foladar]

Do you guys think Homestead will be greatly effected?

if the GFS verifies you will be affected

how bad do you think ? Tropical Storm winds?

nobody here or anywhere else is in position to start narrowing it that close...this thing could go north and you would get very little or it stays south and heads due west and you have a hurricane to deal with..wait a day or so

Just trying to get prepared..took down my shutters two days ago when they said Carolinas :|

[jlauderdal]

Do you guys think Homestead will be greatly effected?

if the GFS verifies you will be affected

how bad do you think ? Tropical Storm winds?

nobody here or anywhere else is in position to start narrowing it that close...this thing could go north and you would get very little or it stays south and heads due west and you have a hurricane to deal with..wait a day or so

Just trying to get prepared..took down my shutters two days ago when they said Carolinas :|

well you learned a valuable lesson about long range hurricane forecasting..hold tight we will know much more tomorrow but right now the trend is west, lets see

[Guest]

What is alarming to me one of the models yellow has it hitting you guys S Fl. and moving WSW into Cuba. Must be a heck of a ridge setting up.?

[Foladar]

my apptment took them down, we had no choice

[Weatherboy1]

Well, almost all the 12Z and 12UTC models are in and it looks like some (GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian) have shifted a bit S and W, while others (UKMET, GFDL and the BAMs) have shifted ever so slightly N and E. Of the majors, the only updated run I haven't seen is the ECMWF (and the models I can't access via the Internet, such as the FSU superensamble).

Bottom line: All are basically converging on a landfall point somewhere in the same neighborhood as Frances -- the central/SE coast of FL, roughly between West Palm Beach, FL and Ft. Pierce. Intensity forecast seems to range from about 105 - 115, also roughly the same strength as Frances when she made landfall. Sigh...

[mel38]

wetherboy are we over this or what? i am in shock i think. we have so many homes damaged! i am just done!!!!!

[Weatherboy1]

wetherboy are we over this or what? i am in shock i think. we have so many homes damaged! i am just done!!!!!

I really got lucky with Frances, actually. My wife and I had a scheduled trip to CT/MA to visit family and attend a wedding over Labor Day weekend anyway. So we just secured the house and left. By the time we got back (2 days late due to flight delays), our power was back on, and we only had to live without cable for a day. Some shingles gone, lots of trees to chainsaw down and clean up, etc., but all in all, we fared a LOT better than others.

But yes, this is insane that our area could basically get smacked twice by hurricanes in the same season (not to mention 4 'canes statewide, if you include Ivan which just barely missed an "official" landfall in FL). I've lived here my entire life, with the exception of my college years, and we've never had this kind of a season in Palm Beach County.

[otowntiger]

wetherboy are we over this or what? i am in shock i think. we have so many homes damaged! i am just done!!!!!

YOU guys are done? What do you think about the poor folks who got nailed by both Charley AND Francis (Orlando and points to our southwest)?

[smashmode]

This sucker looks like Ft L to WPB..it appears a little more south than Frances...

[saracop]

I feel sorry for all of you in SE Florida going through Ivan on the west side was more hurricane then I want to see in a long time. I had to go out durning to peck of the strom because someone was shooting a flare in a flood zone and it was hell. You are glad when you get power back but then you feel guilty because of your friends who don't have any. I would hate to know I had to deal with 4 in one year my preys will be for all of you tonight, the comfort is knowing all of you in florida are strong people and will weather the strom and show the rest of the country what it is to be a good neighbor.

[Innotech]

the storms heading a bit northwest at this time....was it supposed to do that?

[jagesq]

Actually, there is, er, there was an event planned at Carlin park this weekend. Cookout for Kenya I think it was called.

[Lockhart]

I think the NW movement the last six hours was a wobble. It looks like it's start back on straight West on the most recent satellite maps. Let's hope for more N wobbles.