HURRICANE JEANNE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
235PM THURS SEPT 23RD 2004
Hurricane Jeanne is staring down the state of Florida this morning and her evil eye appears to be pointed dead at us. The big question is whether or not she'll make landfall at all? or will she come across the peninsula? or will she skirt across the coast..?
Jeanne's winds were 105 mph at the 2pm advisory. This makes her a decent sized Category 2. Capable of producing damage to the Central Fla coast that may top Frances, because of the damage Frances already caused.
The next couple days will be interesting. Jeanne is currently riding along what has been a dominating high pressure system. If the high strengthens.. then Jeanne may not just skirt the coast.. but she may also come far inland to impact the entire peninsula. This could mean hurricane force winds.. at least in gusts as far as the Tampa Bay area, depending on the track it takes.
The NHC official track has it making landfall in Brevard County and then almost immediately headed poleward. Making stops in Orange, Seminole, and Volusia County as well as points north along the way.
The key for Jeanne will be the timing. If the high does not build in far enough.. there is still a possibility she could head the SC or NC. The storm and how far into Fla it goes will depend on the strength of the high.
My amateur opinion would have Jeanne possibly making a north turn.. but only after she's gone well inland. {IE: Orange, Osceola or Seminole County}
Jeanne could be a Category 3 when she arrives too.. which means she could be stronger than Frances. If any shear develops though.. Jeanne may weaken.. But she still has to travel over the Gulf Stream. The GS is where some storms can bomb because of the water being nearly 90 degrees.
Our current outlook has Jeanne making landfall in Central Florida, around the Brevard County area.. and if she heads north.. it'll be when she's well inland. Remember.. The storms windfield may increase as she approaches which means the stronger winds could be felt for a farther distance.
Current 5 day Jeanne outlook: {Track and intensity are subject to errors, some as large as several 100 miles}
Today: Still sitting in the ATL. Beginning to make her move. Max Winds: 105 mph
Friday: Headed for the Bahamas. Moving West. Max Winds: 110 mph
Saturday: In the North Central Bahamas. Max Winds: 115 mph
Sunday: Early morning landfall in Brevard or Indian River County. Max Winds: 120 mphMonday: In North Florida.. possibly near Jax. Moving north. Max Winds: 85 mph
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making critical decisions. Especially life or death decisions. For more details, please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.
As always.. comments welcomed
