A little more north movement

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MWatkins
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#21 Postby MWatkins » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:03 pm

Notice that some convection wrapping around the hurricane starts to overrun the eye on the south side of the hurricane in the 1915Z imagery. By 1945...the bottom part of the eye pops back down as that piece of convection rotates around to the east.

On the next image it will probably be on the north side of the hurricane and it will look like the eye has jumped southward.

MW
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FLAgirl
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#22 Postby FLAgirl » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:04 pm

If that high pressure to the north is blocking her, why is it fanning out so much? I'm going to go out on a limb (it's based on wishful thinking) and say I think she has a chance to move north and partially beat out that high pressure. I hope I'm right.
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#23 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:05 pm

The weather channel radar that tracks the eye position with a white line (yeah I know its twc) shows a nice little wnw movement. I agree that a lot of it is wobble / eye wall tricks but the average from the fixes now I would say is wnw.
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#24 Postby cinlfla » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:07 pm

MWatkins wrote:Notice that some convection wrapping around the hurricane starts to overrun the eye on the south side of the hurricane in the 1915Z imagery. By 1945...the bottom part of the eye pops back down as that piece of convection rotates around to the east.

On the next image it will probably be on the north side of the hurricane and it will look like the eye has jumped southward.

MW



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smashmode
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Re: the wobble north means very little

#25 Postby smashmode » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:10 pm

Vortex wrote:the eye is becoming better defined and based on water vapor imagery a due west motion and maybe even abit of a wsw motion will begin in the next 6 hours...Don't focus on the wobble to the north its just that and is not significant.


Might be heading right for you VOrtex :(
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#26 Postby Three Blind Mice » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:11 pm

Looks like a definite move NW from the forecast track. Implications at 5 or perhaps 11 to confirm the impact on the projected path.
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#27 Postby Wacahootaman » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:17 pm

Click on the forcast points at the top of the image to see the forcast track.

That shows this northward jog clearer.
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LakeToho
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Think it was another wobble

#28 Postby LakeToho » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:24 pm

Latest image shows it back west again
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LakeToho
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Think it was another wobble

#29 Postby LakeToho » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:24 pm

Latest image shows it back west again
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#30 Postby cape_escape » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:28 pm

Wouldn't that make it NW???
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#31 Postby jpigott » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:29 pm

given the WV loops, i just can't possibly see Jeanne going any further north (not counting wobbles), and it even looks like the ridge may push her just S of West down the road
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#32 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:30 pm

It's probably moving more west than NW anyway
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#33 Postby betsy65freddy79 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:31 pm

Local met on TV here, WPB,
(well respected, not John Matthews) just broke in to report that WNW movement had begun (from NHC) and speed up to 8 mph.
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#34 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:32 pm

Well.. it has accelerated some.. Oh... k.. :eek:
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#35 Postby jpigott » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:33 pm

once again, i just don't see how there is going to be much of a northernly component in the short term, all one has to do is look at the WV.
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#36 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:35 pm

The NHC says wnw but that it should turn more westerly tomorrow....
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Betrock
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#37 Postby Betrock » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:13 pm

gulfcoaster53 wrote:Click on water vapor, loop-big and then on the TPA on the Fla map. It's a big picture so you'll probably have to scroll left and down to get to Jeanne. Ridge to the north clearly visible. If it stops building west, the storm will recurve before reaching the coast. It appears, however, to be continuing to build to the west.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/


Gulfcoaster: Thanks that was perfect!

Betrock
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#38 Postby jagesq » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:17 pm

Hey Hey Hey, dont be talking smack about my man Johny Matthews. He is passionate and knowldegable about the weather, he just isnt the smoothest on air speaker. Johny Matthews is the man and he will tell it to you straight.
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#39 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:31 pm

Over the past 5 frames, it looks like it's done a bona fide 90-degree turn from north to west. It's only a 3-hour motion, but I've never seen it that pronounced before.
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Scorpion

#40 Postby Scorpion » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:37 pm

Yeah, a wobble. Hurricanes dont travel in straight lines.
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