Ivan 4PM Advisory

GalvestonDuck · #1 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:40 pm

...Ivan continues to weakens as it moves toward the southwestern
Louisiana and the Upper Texas coasts...
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been
discontinued west of San Luis Pass Texas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a portion of the
Gulf of Mexico coast from Morgan City Louisiana westward to San
Luis Pass Texas.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ivan was located
near latitude 29.4 north...longitude 93.0 west or about 30 miles
south-southeast of Cameron Louisiana. This is also about 65 miles
east-southeast of Port Arthur Texas.

Ivan is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and a
motion between northwest and west-northwest is expected to continue
for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Ivan
will cross the coast in the warning area later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible until landfall
occurs.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Water levels have been running .5 to 2 feet above normal tide levels
along the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Ivan will generate an
additional 1 to 3 feet above these existing water levels.
Therefore...water elevations of 2 to 4 feet above normal are
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...are possible near the path of Ivan.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Louisiana today.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...29.4 N... 93.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Stewart

Johnny · #2 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:45 pm

Once it moves inland, alot of spots in Southeast, Texas could see some significant rainfall totals. I sure could use some.....no doubt about that.

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:45 pm

Stay safe all in Ivan's 2nd path

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:53 pm

Johnny wrote:Once it moves inland, alot of spots in Southeast, Texas could see some significant rainfall totals. I sure could use some.....no doubt about that.

One thing that is worrying me about Ivan is the fact he has definitely slowed down. NHC has him just North of Houston late Friday. From that point on, depending on his speed and if he follows the NHC projected track, which at this point seems quite feasible, we could be looking at a lot more rain than we need(Hasn't that been the pattern all year here in SE TX? :roll:

)He will be pullng moisture in all the way from the BOC at that point. Rain we need for sure. Torrential tropical downpours we do not!!!!

#5 Postby **Houstonia** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:00 pm

I hate those significant rain events - this was the term I was looking for in the local discussion and it's now showing up.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WARNINGS AND PRELIMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM IVAN CENTER HEADED FOR LA COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE SABINE THIS EVENING.

WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER
THE HURRICANE COORDINATION CALL.

WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL FORECAST IN ALREADY IN PLACE. AS IVANS
REMAINS GET INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE UPPER JET EXTENDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP VENTILATE
THE SYSTEM AND A SPEED MAX CURVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST (ETA
SOLUTION) WILL PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A COUPLED JET SCENARIO
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY MORNING...THIS WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE YUCATAN WILL BE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CORE RAIN EVENT. UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT MAY GET AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES.

TIDES HAVE DROPPED OFF AS EXPECTED AND WILL BE GLAD TO SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING SHRUNK BACK TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO NEAR THE CENTER AND EASTWARDS...SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
PROBABLY JUST GET A GLANCING BLOW OF WINDS.

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THOUGH SATURDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
LAKE JACKSON TO KATY TO CROCKETT.

45

&&
.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS
EASTWARD...BUT WILL BE DROPPED WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS ON THIS
ADVISORY.

WITH THE CENTER OF IVAN EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...WILL LOWER THE WINDS/SEAS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. FOR
EASTERN WATERS WHERE TS WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...WILL KEEP
SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND INDICATE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. FOR WESTERN WATERS...WILL
HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SWELLS. WINDS WILL TURN
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IVAN'S CIRCULATION
MOVES INLAND. AS IVAN WEAKENS ON FRIDAY...A GENERAL EAST/NORTHEAST
WIND SHOULD RETURN TO THE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. WILL MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO THE WINDS/SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

WITH ONCOMING LOW TIDE...TIDE LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO THE 1.8 TO 2.8
FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST TIDES OF 0.5 TO 1.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE FRIDAY.
ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHEST ON BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND AT NORTH
FACING LOCATIONS IN GALVESTON BAY TONIGHT...BUT EVEN THESE AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT.

35

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS INCLUDING
GALVESTON BAY.

FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LAKE JACKSON TO
KATY TO CROCKETT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 86 71 85 67 / 60 60 80 70 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 85 73 84 70 / 70 80 90 80 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 83 76 84 75 / 80 80 90 70 50

&&

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

National Weather Service
Houston/Galveston Weather Forecast Office
1620 Gill Road
Dickinson, Texas 77539
281.337.5074
sr-hgx.webmaster@noaa.gov

Johnny · #6 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:08 pm

I saw the NHC track earliar and it takes Ivan right up to me in Conroe come late Friday. The NHC track is what we do not want to happen.

Website · #7 Postby **Brent** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:17 pm

*yawn*

Ivan is boring... He looks like total crap on satellite.

#8 Postby **loon** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:20 pm

I agree Brent, pretty much just some "rain and thunder" coming through. Will make the weekend interesting however.

golter · #9 Postby **golter** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:24 pm

Lets hope it disapates quickly. I really dont see a complete wash out this weekend.

Hou~TX~Mama · #10 Postby **Hou~TX~Mama** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:28 pm

Brent wrote:*yawn*

Ivan is boring... He looks like total crap on satellite.

I agree - yawn.
I want some RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Johnny · #11 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:39 pm

I guess this won't be any different than a passing thunderstorm.

Stratosphere747 · #12 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:51 pm

Not so fast Johnny...I hate to keep bringing up the name "Allison" but she was thought by some to be a "passing thunderstorm"

I don't think that Ivan will do the same thing or even close to what Allison did...But he may be more that a passing thunderstorm to the Houston area when all is said and done with...

#13 Postby **stormcloud** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:03 pm

One good thing in favor for Southeast Texas is that it has been VERY dry. The ground will be able to handle heavy rains this time.

#14 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 6:28 pm

I've got a weird question for the pro mets, but with the way Ivan's been acting, who knows?

Has anybody seen the new plot from the NHC? It looked awfully suspicious to me. Is it a possibility, however unlikely, that Ivan could loop back into the Gulf and try again for the third time? :eek:

njoynit · #15 Postby **njoynit** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 6:36 pm

I'm ready for the rain...bring it on,yep are dry I dug 3 ft in flowerbed and is very dry.

Ivanova · #16 Postby **Ivanova** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:17 pm

Johnny wrote:
Once it moves inland, alot of spots in Southeast, Texas could see some significant rainfall totals. I sure could use some.....no doubt about that.

I hope Ivan sends rain to Dallas

Btw... I can see Ivan's eye very close to shore

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

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