What's the chances?
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cape_escape
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What's the chances?
With all of the models trending towards a South Florida landfall, what's the chances that she doesn't take that Northery turn, and makes it into the GOM?
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cape_escape
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Re: What's the chances?
cape_escape wrote:With all of the models trending towards a South Florida landfall, what's the chances that she doesn't take that Northery turn, and makes it into the GOM?
Dropping like a loaded rock...anybody out there? 
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cape_escape
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Anonymous
A important page on the NHC website is the PROBABILITIES page. On this page NHC list the overall chances combining all factors the NHC uses to state the chance of a storm coming within 65 nautical miles of a certain point. This is important because you can watch a trend either develop higher or lower with time. It is more stable overall than the flip flop models because it is only run with the 4 timed daily advisories. They are issued for up to 120 hours from the current time. As always they will vary and some may flip flop around.
If you were to use these probabilities for Ivan you would have seen a increase for points in advance farther west than what the models were calling for. While percentage rates were rising for MS,LA, & western Florida they were falling off steeply for Southern Florida even though Ivan was located closer to Naples or Miami. This list pretty much had the highest chances for landfall clustered between LA & Panama City with the highest chance near Mobile. The point is they are very accurate.
Because a certain point gets a high probability doesn't mean it will get a direct hit, but the center of the storm may come within 65 nautical miles.
it is worth your time to use this page provided by the NHC to answer questions such as you have posted.
For Jeanne the page is at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2028.shtml?
If one would look at the current 5 PM probabilities they would see that Pensacola has the same chance as Charleston SC for Jeanne to come within 65 nautical miles. This has been fairly stable throughout the day and has risen slightly at 5 PM.
Since last night the highest chance for a landfall has been W Palm Beach to Ft. Pierce and this remains currently. On a westward movement the points from Marco Island north to Cedar Key (Gulf coast) have been rather stable but with a slow increase.
Note that the chance of the storm moving with 65 nautical miles of APALACHICOLA FL is slightly higher than for SAVANNAH GA but both are near equal.
There is a fair chance that Jeanne will rotate around the High in a similar fashion as to Frances if Jeanne accelerates, which is in the forecast. No 2 storms are alike and Jeanne will not take a train track just like Frances because thats not how weather works though many on this forum enjoy posting past tracks of storms thinking that every storm in the same location will duplicate a earlier storm, this is not based in fact. Storms do move toward the north so its not a secret that they in general follow the large scale weather patterns. As most of the season Jeanne is another storm bound by the strong ridging to the north which she will swing around at some point to the north.
For people to make simple statements such as no it won't go a certain direction without backing up their post makes no sense other than that is a "gut" feeling. Many people have "gut"
feelings in Las Vegas and come home poor.
Take Care this Thursday evening,
Mike
If you were to use these probabilities for Ivan you would have seen a increase for points in advance farther west than what the models were calling for. While percentage rates were rising for MS,LA, & western Florida they were falling off steeply for Southern Florida even though Ivan was located closer to Naples or Miami. This list pretty much had the highest chances for landfall clustered between LA & Panama City with the highest chance near Mobile. The point is they are very accurate.
Because a certain point gets a high probability doesn't mean it will get a direct hit, but the center of the storm may come within 65 nautical miles.
it is worth your time to use this page provided by the NHC to answer questions such as you have posted.
For Jeanne the page is at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2028.shtml?
If one would look at the current 5 PM probabilities they would see that Pensacola has the same chance as Charleston SC for Jeanne to come within 65 nautical miles. This has been fairly stable throughout the day and has risen slightly at 5 PM.
Since last night the highest chance for a landfall has been W Palm Beach to Ft. Pierce and this remains currently. On a westward movement the points from Marco Island north to Cedar Key (Gulf coast) have been rather stable but with a slow increase.
Note that the chance of the storm moving with 65 nautical miles of APALACHICOLA FL is slightly higher than for SAVANNAH GA but both are near equal.
There is a fair chance that Jeanne will rotate around the High in a similar fashion as to Frances if Jeanne accelerates, which is in the forecast. No 2 storms are alike and Jeanne will not take a train track just like Frances because thats not how weather works though many on this forum enjoy posting past tracks of storms thinking that every storm in the same location will duplicate a earlier storm, this is not based in fact. Storms do move toward the north so its not a secret that they in general follow the large scale weather patterns. As most of the season Jeanne is another storm bound by the strong ridging to the north which she will swing around at some point to the north.
For people to make simple statements such as no it won't go a certain direction without backing up their post makes no sense other than that is a "gut" feeling. Many people have "gut"
feelings in Las Vegas and come home poor.
Take Care this Thursday evening,
Mike
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cape_escape
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Anonymous
Some of the things in my above post need better explaining but more or less the point was check the
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
that is linked in my post, it is highly accurate on the long haul and really helpful for points within a 72 hours period - and less accurate farther out yet still does show a trend that NHC is leaning to.
Mike
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
that is linked in my post, it is highly accurate on the long haul and really helpful for points within a 72 hours period - and less accurate farther out yet still does show a trend that NHC is leaning to.
Mike
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cape_escape
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