Models shift to the rifht

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
webke
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 290
Age: 70
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:39 pm
Location: North Myrtle Beach SC

Models shift to the rifht

#1 Postby webke » Thu Sep 23, 2004 6:53 pm

Look at the attached thr GFDL and the GFS .link/www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
0 likes   

User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

#2 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Thu Sep 23, 2004 6:54 pm

0 likes   

jagesq
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 128
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:07 pm

#3 Postby jagesq » Thu Sep 23, 2004 6:55 pm

Awesome, well thats good news for Palm Beach County. What will the NHC do at 11?
0 likes   

PurdueWx80
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2720
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
Location: Madison, WI
Contact:

#4 Postby PurdueWx80 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 6:56 pm

Shift to the right from when? Those are still this afternoon's/morning's models....at least on my browser.
0 likes   

gkrangers

#5 Postby gkrangers » Thu Sep 23, 2004 6:56 pm

I wanna see what the NOGAPS does next run....
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:00 pm

I wouldnt trust the GFS if Christ himself advised me to. The model has been that unreliable this year
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#7 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I wouldnt trust the GFS if Christ himself advised me to. The model has been that unreliable this year


Yeow..alrighty then.. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
webke
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 290
Age: 70
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:39 pm
Location: North Myrtle Beach SC

sHIET

#8 Postby webke » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:02 pm

i am not posting a opinion only an observation
0 likes   

weatherFrEaK
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 12:57 pm
Location: Earth

#9 Postby weatherFrEaK » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:03 pm

"shift to the rifht"

Hey, that rhymes!

;)
0 likes   

MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:

#10 Postby MWatkins » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:12 pm

No...that's the same GFDL model run from 12Z.

And the 18Z GFDL is a carbon copy. There is no shift right since the model is doing the exact same thing it was doing 6 hours ago.

MW
0 likes   
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack

scogor
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:40 pm
Location: Sarasota, Florida

#11 Postby scogor » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:16 pm

Thanks Mike...didn't think there was any shift. I am afraid that you are dead on with the ridging issue. My concern is that the turn doesn't occur until Jeanne has a chance to get into the GOM.
0 likes   

CocoaBill
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:03 am
Location: Cocoa, FL
Contact:

#12 Postby CocoaBill » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:22 pm

LOL at weatherFrEaK

Funniest thing I've read all day!
0 likes   

User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

#13 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:23 pm

weatherFrEaK wrote:"shift to the rifht"

Hey, that rhymes!

;)



Lets do the time warp again.... :lol: :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
cape_escape
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 745
Age: 56
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:39 am
Location: Cape Coral Florida
Contact:

#14 Postby cape_escape » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:23 pm

scogor wrote:Thanks Mike...didn't think there was any shift. I am afraid that you are dead on with the ridging issue. My concern is that the turn doesn't occur until Jeanne has a chance to get into the GOM.



Mine too! I knew I should have went to the beach last weekend, while I had the chance!
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#15 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:24 pm

They have shifted ever so slightly, right over me here in melbourne. :roll:
0 likes   

seahawkjd
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:12 pm
Location: Morehead City, NC
Contact:

#16 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:30 pm

I looked at the models right before I left to go work out. I came back and checked them again and yes they have shifted right. They were right over Florida now a couple are back out hugging the coast just off shore.
0 likes   

User avatar
MBismyPlayground
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 765
Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:25 pm
Location: myrtle beach, sc
Contact:

#17 Postby MBismyPlayground » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:32 pm

seahawkjd wrote:I looked at the models right before I left to go work out. I came back and checked them again and yes they have shifted right. They were right over Florida now a couple are back out hugging the coast just off shore.


I agree, I actually save the silly things in my pic files and darned if I can find the last one, but I know it has shifted a little itty bitty bit. Still looking for the silly thing now.
0 likes   

stormandan28
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2004 11:13 am
Contact:

the models havent shifted check this out

#18 Postby stormandan28 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:42 pm

0 likes   

obxhurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:08 pm
Location: Outer Banks of North Carolina
Contact:

#19 Postby obxhurricane » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:42 pm

They have shifted ever so slightly right. I doubt if Jeanne ever makes a landfall on the EC of Florida. Should be close tho...

Does anyone know if there was a NOAA mission tonight?
0 likes   

seahawkjd
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 632
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:12 pm
Location: Morehead City, NC
Contact:

#20 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:45 pm

No mission before tommorow afternoon for some reason.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: HurricaneFan and 121 guests