5PM JEANNE ADVISORY=MOVING FASTER!

#1 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:54 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 232028
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

...JEANNE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BY FRIDAY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.

INTERESTS ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES... 680 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

#2 Postby **drudd1** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 3:57 pm

Yep, I had been watching that. Not good at all.

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:17 pm

Acceleration means she may come on shore sooner..

cape_escape · #4 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:19 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Acceleration means she may come on shore sooner..

No, no ,no, we can't have that!

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:25 pm

No we can't..

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:35 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Acceleration means she may come on shore sooner..

Well, yes, but the most significant factor is the faster Jeanne moves towards the coast, the more likely for a landfall ... incidentally, from the 11 am advisory, Jeanne was running about 0.3ºN of the forecast advisory (which is about 20 NM) ...

SF

Lockhart · #7 Postby **Lockhart** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:13 pm

I'll take every NM North I can get, at this point. Let's have a couple more N wobbles, please...

#8 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:21 pm

Something to add to your thoughts here Stormsfury.....

If Jeanne moves quicker than anticipated to the west she could emerge over in the eastern GOM before she's turned enough northward. Simply stating that interests in the eastern and NE GOM should also monitor Jeanne. Several Models, CMC, NOGAPS indicate this solution in their latest respective runs. Also, the GFS, GFDL and a couple others have had a bad history of underestimating ridging this season in regards to steering major hurricanes. I'm not sold on the run up the east coast of Florida yet and quite honestly don't see it.

scogor · #9 Postby **scogor** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:34 pm

I share your uneasiness, Dean4Storms

Juno Beach · #10 Postby **Juno Beach** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:36 pm

Well, this really sucks for my wanting to watch the 5:30PM PSU/Wisconsin game on Saturday.

B|tch Jeanne!

I don't mind boarding up and eating canned ravioli for a week. I don't mind going without power and sweating through my shirt in a boarded up house when it's 92 friggin' degrees outside.

Heck, more than 1/2 of my caloric intake can easily fit in a cooler anyway - in fact, coolers were DESIGNED for 12 oz bottles.

What I DO mind is when you damn storms take out my power, my cable, and my ability to watch Penn State Football.

It's downright Un-American, and I HATE you for it.

#11 Postby **tronbunny** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:40 pm

I have to say, that Jeanne coming here is insignificant in comparison to what she did to Haiti.

:-(

#12 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:48 pm

It "ain't" over til the fat lady sings. If Jeanne does gain major hurricane status again and hits a metropolitan area we could have another catastrophy in the making. Hopefully, in this day and age, it wouldn't take as many lives as it did in Haiti but if too many "brave" souls decide to ride it, out you never know the end results.

On a positive note, I think most Floridians are now the most aware they have been in the 30 years I've been here and are more likely to heed the warnings.

Lynn

arlwx · #13 Postby **arlwx** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:54 pm

Dean4Storms:

Unless something strange and unexpected occurs, it is already too late for Jeanne to enter the GOM without crossing Florida. It is at the latitude of Hollywood ((north of Miami)).

If it continued its current beeline, I would pick a Daytona Beach landfall. However, I think it will curve north of there ((unless the promets on this board can convince me otherwise)). My SWAG would be a Charleston to Wilmington landfall, but this is only a SWAG at this point and not supported by anything other than having seen the "it wasn't FL as expected, but NC" story too many times before.

#14 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 6:02 pm

arlwx wrote:Dean4Storms:

Unless something strange and unexpected occurs, it is already too late for Jeanne to enter the GOM without crossing Florida. It is at the latitude of Hollywood ((north of Miami)).

If it continued its current beeline, I would pick a Daytona Beach landfall. However, I think it will curve north of there ((unless the promets on this board can convince me otherwise)). My SWAG would be a Charleston to Wilmington landfall, but this is only a SWAG at this point and not supported by anything other than having seen the "it wasn't FL as expected, but NC" story too many times before.

I didn't mean to imply that it would not first landfall on the east coast of Florida, but that it would continue westward and reach the eastern GOM before it begins to make a significant northward turn. It's very plausible at this point.

scogor · #15 Postby **scogor** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:13 pm

yep, and would not lose all of its punch--remember Andrew??

kevin · #16 Postby **kevin** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:31 pm

Hopefully, in this day and age, it wouldn't take as many lives as it did in Haiti but if too many "brave" souls decide to ride it, out you never know the end results. <<

Florida doesn't have deforested mountains, so 1,000 people won't die. Sadly in this day and age, a country can experience a catastrophe and not even be that much of a news event.

HurricaneJim · #17 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:48 pm

...Florida doesn't have deforested mountains, so 1,000 people won't die. Sadly in this day and age, a country can experience a catastrophe and not even be that much of a news event....

Tell me about it. Less than 48hrs after Ivan came and they're pulling corpses off barrier island, editors told me...'Sorry, Bush came and went. It's no longer a story for us, we're back to election and football."

Attempt to get to Haiti also nixed.

Anyone....does anyone have a link for navy wave height model liek the one that was linked somewhere in her during Ivan.

Jim

5PM JEANNE ADVISORY=MOVING FASTER!

5PM JEANNE ADVISORY=MOVING FASTER!

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