NEW 94L Model Run

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

NEW 94L Model Run

#1 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:04 pm

Only one model which takes it into the texas coast.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#2 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:05 pm

um...crappy model run? Seems like they think he is Ivan. My guess...it forms and hits somewhere between Grand Isle and Apalachicola like Ivan the First
0 likes   
Top
Matthew5

#3 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:05 pm

I just got looking the Gfdl model shown there is for 9-22-2004...That means this is Ivan Jr...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#4 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:10 pm

I've been gone for several hours. What is this?
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#5 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:17 pm

It's a blob just east of Ivan. I really don't think it's a separate entity though.

The reason only one model has run is because the Invest is brand new.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#6 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:20 pm

Not a separate entity? Does that mean it won't become anything?
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
Ivanova

#7 Postby Ivanova » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:21 pm

Brent wrote:
It's a blob just east of Ivan. I really don't think it's a separate entity though.




If Ivan absorbs this blob ;) :cool:

WATCH OUT :eek:


*
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#8 Postby dhweather » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:29 pm

I still won't evacuate for Ivan again!!! :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#9 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:32 pm

southerngale wrote:Not a separate entity? Does that mean it won't become anything?


It defintely has a shot at development, but nothing is imminent.

Focus on Jeanne. It'll be much more threatening.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#10 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:37 pm

Oh, I'm definitely watching Jeanne. She's kinda hard to miss. :eek:
But with Jeanne on the other side of Florida and little ol' Ivan over here, I was a bit surprised to see something new to potentially develop in the GOM.
0 likes   
Top
Ivanova

#11 Postby Ivanova » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:42 pm

Brent wrote:
Focus on Jeanne. It'll be much more threatening.




Yup... this was the Big Z ruse ;) :cool:


*
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
opera ghost
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 909
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 4:40 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#12 Postby opera ghost » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:44 pm

See Brent- some of us can focus on two... or even three things at once.

This is near my home- I'd like to be able to discuss it on the boards without the posts being dismissed because it's not as "threatening". Things spin up in the gulf very quickly- this invest is only about as far from Houston as Jeanne is from Florida.

Jeanne is on the other side of Florida from me and is of interest- but is not even remotely a potential threat to my area. I will watch her out of curriosity and being a weather lover.

But please- invests are tropical weather too- and in any other season this would be of interest to a lot of people.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#13 Postby senorpepr » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:45 pm

Remember that 94L is now what is called Ivan.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
opera ghost
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 909
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 4:40 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#14 Postby opera ghost » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:47 pm

Actully scuttlebut is that Ivan is Ivan and 94L was set back in the que- and issued to the Central GOM blob.

Good old Blob.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#15 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:48 pm

Yep 94L is the new blob and if it holds convection tonight, then we might see a new depression tomorrow.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#16 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:50 pm

Didn't Joe Bastardi mention something about a seperate Storm from Ivan in the Southern GOM earlier this week? I think he may be right.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#17 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:51 pm

It's an error. It's been there since yesterday, for Ivan. There's no 94L Invest on the Navy's back up site. http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Also TPC doesn't mention any other disturbances they are watching in the TWO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#18 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:52 pm

Well what a bad error for them to make.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormie_skies
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3318
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:25 pm
Location: League City, TX

#19 Postby stormie_skies » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:55 pm

Grrrrrr..... :grr: So which one is it? :x
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#20 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:56 pm

To me if its not and invest i think it should be since it looks like it has a chance to become something.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests