NEW 94L Model Run

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southerngale
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#21 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:00 pm

opera ghost wrote:See Brent- some of us can focus on two... or even three things at once.

This is near my home- I'd like to be able to discuss it on the boards without the posts being dismissed because it's not as "threatening". Things spin up in the gulf very quickly- this invest is only about as far from Houston as Jeanne is from Florida.

Jeanne is on the other side of Florida from me and is of interest- but is not even remotely a potential threat to my area. I will watch her out of curriosity and being a weather lover.

But please- invests are tropical weather too- and in any other season this would be of interest to a lot of people.


Good post.
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#22 Postby senorpepr » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:20 pm

Okay... once again... as Thunder44 said... 94L is Ivan. Trust me. I've been monitoring the NRL's page everyday for a long time now. 94L was issued several days ago for Ivan. If you check out the FNMOC page, you'll see that there are NO invests for the Atlantic basin.

Interestingly, the TWO reflects this as well.

They don't set invest numbers back for other systems. Invests are issued in order. The next invest... if it happens to be the Central GOMEX... will be 95L.

Furthermore, it's really not that bad of an error to make, considering that this page isn't for public use.
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#23 Postby wabbitoid » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:21 pm

I think that, sooner or later, Ivan is going to hit New Orleans. It may take until October, but he'll do it. Or something like him.
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#24 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:22 pm

LOL you might be right wabbitoid look at this image

Image


Ivan will not give up until he visit the french quarter.
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#25 Postby senorpepr » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:23 pm

Ohhh... more proof.

If 94L is the new wave... did you bother checking the time stamp on your picture?

Image

The top stamp (09/22/09 1800Z) is the position fix time. That seems a little old for a new blob.

The bottom stamp (09/24/04 0015Z) is simply the image time and has no real effect on the system itself.

Once again, 94L is for Ivan.
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#26 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:25 pm

Ok senorpepr we get the point, i also mentioned in this post it might just be old informotion before ivan became ivan again.
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#27 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:25 pm

senorpepr wrote:Ohhh... more proof.

If 94L is the new wave... did you bother checking the time stamp on your picture?

Image

The top stamp (09/22/09 1800Z) is the position fix time. That seems a little old for a new blob.

The bottom stamp (09/24/04 0015Z) is simply the image time and has no real effect on the system itself.

Once again, 94L is for Ivan.



o.k...then why is there 2 separate pics? one for ivan then one for 94L?
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#28 Postby senorpepr » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:27 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:Ok senorpepr we get the point, i also mentioned in this post it might just be old informotion before ivan became ivan again.


Those comments weren't really toward you, but others who were name-calling.
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#29 Postby senorpepr » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:28 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:o.k...then why is there 2 separate pics? one for ivan then one for 94L?


They similar haven't removed the links for 94L yet. I'm sure NRL is quite busy following 5 named systems and 3 additional invests.
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#30 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:28 pm

Ok, sorry if i sounded kinda rude.
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#31 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:28 pm

that top number, the position fix time cant be correct...that satellite pic is clearly the pretty current, and 22 would have been yesterday, when ivan was still well offshore
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#32 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:29 pm

senorpepr wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:o.k...then why is there 2 separate pics? one for ivan then one for 94L?


They similar haven't removed the links for 94L yet. I'm sure NRL is quite busy following 5 named systems and 3 additional invests.


Oh..o.k...was wondering....that makes it kinda confusing!
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#33 Postby opera ghost » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:29 pm

Okay I'll bite. Say it isn't soemthing new.

Work with me here.

New Idea: So what's up with this freaking blob in the middle of the GOM. It looks big and wet... and like it might need to be an invest soon. ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#34 Postby senorpepr » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:36 pm

PTPatrick wrote:that top number, the position fix time cant be correct...that satellite pic is clearly the pretty current, and 22 would have been yesterday, when ivan was still well offshore


This is how NRL does it.

The actual image updates, regardless of the fix time. That's why the bottom time will continue to change.

If you look at the filename, that will show the fix data for the top time.

So basically this is what happens.

NHC gave a fix at 22/18Z for Invest 94L (before it was upgraded). NRL created a filename for this fix called: 20040924.0015.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-264N-888W.jpg

This basically tells the computer to focus on 26.4N 88.8W. Every new image will come in focused on that point.

So although the image is updated, the fix is old and not representive of the given picture.
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#35 Postby senorpepr » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:37 pm

opera ghost wrote:Okay I'll bite. Say it isn't soemthing new.

Work with me here.

New Idea: So what's up with this freaking blob in the middle of the GOM. It looks big and wet... and like it might need to be an invest soon. ;)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I'll give that to you, but you won't see an invest for a bit longer. Convection will need to persist before they'll issue an invest for it.
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#36 Postby opera ghost » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:39 pm

Cool! Thanks muchly. I'll keep an half an eye on it for convection and half an eye on Ivan to see if he goes back to the gulf.... and myt other eye on Jeanne ;)
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